I have come to the conclusion that the Merrill and oasis buys must be linked i.e. Merrill bought the actual shares while oasis bought a option on those shares and so the Merrill sale was the oasis buyb
Agree that the volume is in small tranches, but we must appreciate Merril Lynch have sold their stake to who? To the best of my understanding, that was not in small tranches. Moreover, we have ( I think) at one point also had a buy of 3 million shares. A lot of the selling is probably between institutions.
What volume ? About 500k shares bought per day and in small tranches - need about 8.5m to get 1% !!! Presumably what volume there is is due to pi s looking at all the consolidation going on and taking a punt.
Also we are in the close period so you wouldn't have any action from oasis or nissin as they are board members.
What we do know is that one of the reasons for the profit warning last time was the massive rise in commodity prices which have subsequently fallen heavily - circa 30-40% along with a rise in sterling that should ease the input cost issue and hopefully they will lock in for next year.
I would hope some progress has been made on commercial terms with supers, the Cadbury licence issue hasn't materialised, pension payments are significantly reduced which will really help debt and at least according to some posters on this board redundancies have started to reduce the cost base ( no idea if true but rings true I guess).
Sales of course will be the most important factor in any sp move and in that I have no idea. I would say that mr d surely would have thrown the kitchen sink at the top line for this quarter even at the expense of the bottom line as he knows he will be under intense scrutiny at ten agm.
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