There has been a large build up of quality own label products at the supermarkets in the last few months and would not be surprised if these are taking market share from the brands, especially brands that can be easily copied. Supermarkets need to compete with aldi/lidl and this is the way they are doing it. This would explain the sales drop rather than weather.
asda have removed oxo stock pots and oxo herbs and more and included their own for a lot less, only have oxo cubes. They still have Unilever's stock pots.
Salisbury have removed a lot of McCormick's Schwartz spice jars and filled up the space with their own at half the price.
McCormick is strong financially and can absorb this, but premier can't.
Premier gets new products made by others, the supermarkets are going to the same place.
Brands like Quorn are not easy to copy so are doing well, but the brains at Premier at the time thought better to sell this rather than sharwoods or batchelors.
A year ago we did not have 12+% drop in the most profitable part of the business, with another possible warning in the new year as we still do not know the effect of brexit, if Unilever could not pass fully the costs do you think premier will be able to?
Premier is in a weak position and it's customers know that so will want to take full advantage, it's a dog eat dog world.
Sweet treats profit margins are less than half that of grocery, other growth area is business that does not make profits at all i.e. knighton.
What happens if we get hotter weather again next year, other than shareholders, there is no where else premier can get extra funding to make up for profit shortfalls.
WAKE UP, this is a dead business unless profits can be MAINTAINED, love to be proved wrong, but not good signs.
your only defense is that Darby has said profits will be maintained, and off cause Darby has ALWAYS got this right.
Stop talking rubbish!!! GD described the MC bid as a "phantom bid", however that was only beyond the initial 52p bid which was "genuine". So why the hell would PF be looking at 50p almost a year afterwards?
So darby is just the monkey taking orders from the organ grinder. My " conspiracy theory" may not be so fictitious after all.
Still can't make sense of a previous hot weather profit warning in 2013 where grocery branded sales increased 2%, this time for a similar warning sales dropped 12%, perhaps even more as grocery also contains international sales.
If share drops to 40p as a result of the suspicious warning, will a bid come in at 50p ( 25% premium) for the 80% nissin do not own.
Or will we see another warning in January to get the share price down further, then an even lower offer to take the lost cause of our back, by that time oasis will have built up more shares.
Credit where credit is due, you are an asset to this BB when you "come out of your shell" and post a " conspiracy theory". The BB is better off with any "conspiracy theory" than none one at all!!! I disagree with your "theory"" and feel there will not be an outright takeover of PF for a while, I hope I'm wrong. However, I can see Nissan buying up close to the 30% threshold, which may see the SP hit at least the value a Mc Cormick price would have gone through in March 2016. It is reasonable to suggest the price analysts at the time suggested 75p. As for an outright bid from Mc Cormick, think with Nissan owning 20%, along with Apollo, this is all but over.
Lets take this cynical view a bit further to see if the jigsaw puzzle fits with Darby's actions over the last 2 years.
Darby has said he has been discussing the partnership with Nissin for a while, in secret from shareholders, assume this has been taking place for over 2 years, around the same period sweet treats and grocery divided up.
Say, as you have suggested Nissin only wanted the grocery division. Darby makes a deal where he would take sweet treats business private with his friends in the city for example Warburg Pincus ( hypothetically speaking of cause)
Grocery division would then need to be made as cheap as possible by issuing profit warning after profit warning at the same time making sure the blame was elsewhere such as weather.
McCormick spoils the plan by the offer after the warning in January, initially this is kept quite until the second offer where it had to be declared as PFD is a public company with Shareholders.
Darby gets the gang together to kill the offer, which worked by WP selling nissin the 17% and now wants to make sure the company value is as cheap as possible and shareholders feel grateful they are getting something at least.
Grocery business could be sold with the debt and pension scheme as it has over 110m profit, sweats business without debt would be free to grow fast, especially in the US.
Nissin initially buys all of PFD as cheap as it could be made and then sells the sweet business to ???
Oasis being the business to acquire enough shares to prevent anybody else bidding.
I know this is all FICTION, but does sound great for a novel.
Bistolover, very cynical but I have to admit there may be some truth in your analysis. I do find it very strange that they release such a poor performance in grocery due to the weather, which wasnt exactly sweltering and as you have already pointed out, international sales are reported in grocery. Apart from mccormcik, I,also think that Nissin may be wanting to buy the grocery division outright to gain a foothold in UK - poor results would leave the shareholders grateful that he has landed a below par deal. Nissin must be their no1 client for knighton, which is a purely B2B business now. A lot more to the Nissin deal than meets the eye. International needs to show bigger deals or revenues. At the end of last year the divison went from 9 to 28 employees, so there must be some new and big contracts to be announced soon. We acn be v confident in sweet treats division, which will continue to grow through their "cake on the go" strategy within convenience.
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