Hi Wuffle / Rivaldo. this stock has certianly seen a significant boost in the last week. Do you attribute it to the buy ratings or this Lanco speculation? I feel like all this rise is the Lanco speculation as thats the only thing that has actually changed. On hargreaves lansdown website i see Cantor has a price taget of 130p consistently re-iterated since at least Feb 2016.
I don't feel I have had full value from the favourable currency movement yet. I wonder if Q1 turnover indications reflected it. Might have to take a stronger dollar on coal price as a counter point though.
Like yourself I noted that the EPS figure was a bit of a red herring. There have been issues this year with floods and connecting G1 & G2 but basically they done good. The earnings 'miss' has just been sliced and diced by the accountants. It has been a bargain this month and I have quietly picked a few up. The Q1 turnover figure indicates as much.
You can see why a bunch of financiers want their help over at Lanco. Personally I think something will happen but it is only a guess. Not without risk but some of that can be mitigated by price.
(a) Cenkos say Buy and calculate OPG made 7.1p historic adjusted EPS to 31/3/16. They note that results were broadly in line with forecasts at Â£50.7m EBITDA (which is actually above Â£50.4m Cenkos forecast).
There is a deferred tax charge resulting from the difference between Indian GAAP and IFRS depreciation treatment, but using the current year tax charge, adjusted EPS was 7.1p against 7p forecast.
They forecast 8p EPS this year and 9.3p EPS next year.
(b) Cantor retain their Buy and 130p target price and note that results were broadly in line with consensus for EBITDA, and were ahead of forecasts re net debt, though below their own EBITDA and PBT forecasts. They note the same tax timing difference factor.
Q1'17 revenues of Â£57m are well above their own annualised Â£212m forecasts if sustained.
They forecast 7.7p EPS this year and 10.8p EPS next year.
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