Oil Trades Near $45 as U.S. Production Declines to 18-Month Low Grant SmithApr 28, 2016 9:12 am ET (Bloomberg) -- Oil traded near the highest close in more than five months after a further drop in U.S. crude production, as lower prices take their toll on the nation’s shale boom.
Futures advanced 0.5 percent in New York after rising 6.3 percent the previous two sessions to close above $45 a barrel. Production slipped for a seventh week to the lowest since October 2014, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration. Nationwide stockpiles rose by 2 million barrels to 540.6 million, the highest since 1929.
“Falling U.S. production” is among factors “fueling speculative purchases of oil futures,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “That said, the oil market remains oversupplied, as best visible in U.S. commercial oil inventories. Prices remain vulnerable to the downside in the short run.”
Crude has rebounded after slumping to the lowest since 2003 earlier this year amid signs the worldwide surplus will ease as U.S. production declines. Oil extended gains Wednesday after Federal Reserve officials signaled they remain upbeat about the nation’s growth and are less worried about risks posed by global economic weakness and financial-market turbulence.
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose as much as 26 cents to $45.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $45.57 at 1:58 p.m. London time. The contract gained $1.29 to $45.33 on Wednesday, the highest close since Nov. 4. Total volume traded was about 32 percent below the 100-day average.
Brent for June settlement gained 33 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $47.51 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract, which expires Friday, rose 3.2 percent to $47.18 Wednesday. The more-active July future advanced 32 cents to $47.25. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $1.87 to WTI.
U.S. production dropped by 15,000 barrels a day to 8.94 million a day through April 22, according to the EIA report Wednesday.
Other market news: Russia may take part in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ scheduled June meeting to discuss a proposed freeze to output, according to an Interfax report. Saras Trading SA is in talks to boost crude imports from Iran, Chief Executive Officer Marco Schiavetti said in an interview in Houston. Baker Hughes Inc. reported a net loss of $981 million for the first quarter, according to a statement Wednesday.
Crude futures pulled back from 2016 highs early on Thursday as traders locked in profits after April's sharp rally, but analysts said falling U.S. production and strong investor appetite could push prices higher.
International Brent crude futures were trading at $47.02 per barrel at 0045 GMT, down 16 cents from their last settlement, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 12 cents at $45.21 a barrel.
The price dip came after both crude benchmarks hit 2016 highs the previous day in what has been one of the steepest price rises in recent years. Both Brent and WTI have rallied more than 70 percent since their respective 2016 lows in January and February.
Analysts said falling output in the United States and a weak dollar were pushing prices up and attracting investors.
"The recent trend of rising crude oil prices received another boost after U.S. output was shown to have fallen again last week," ANZ bank said, following a release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing that crude oil production fell to 8.94 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, down almost half a million bpd from this time last year.
The output fall outweighed bearish data showing that U.S. crude stocks climbed 2 million barrels last week to an all-time peak of 540.6 million barrels, traders said.
However, the record crude storage figures may have spurred some traders to take profits in Thursday morning trade by closing long positions, they added.
ANZ said that further bullish momentum could emerge due to ongoing weakness in the dollar, which is down over 5 percent this year against a basket of other leading currencies, as a weaker greenback makes dollar-traded crude cheaper to buy for countries using other currencies at home.
"Investors should take comfort from a relatively market neutral FOMC (U.S. Federal Open Market Committee) statement. With fundamentals continuing to improve, this should see them to add to their already bullish positions in coming days," ANZ said.
The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it would leave U.S. interest rates unchanged and that it was in no rush to hike rates soon.
RW stated that when the POO recovers we are "well placed to hit the ground running " - I do like her optimism I also like the fact that we are reinvesting profits .... It may take some time but IMHO our SP will recover....
World Bank Raises Oil-Price Forecast as Oversupply Seen Easing
Andrew MayedaApr 27, 2016 6:20 am ET (Bloomberg) -- The World Bank boosted its forecast for oil prices this year, projecting that refinery demand will pick up and U.S. production cuts will steepen in the second half of 2016.
Crude prices will average $41 per barrel this year, which is still down 19 percent from 2015, the Washington-based development bank said Tuesday in its quarterly commodity-markets outlook. The bank in January had predicted a price of $37 per barrel, which represents a composite of projections for the Brent, West Texas Intermediate and Dubai Fateh blends.
While oil has recovered after slumping to the lowest since 2003 in February, as optimism grows that the global surplus will ease, negotiations between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers ended last week without a deal to limit supplies. West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose $1.40, or 3.3 percent, to $44.04 per barrel at 12 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The World Bank increased its projection for prices next year to $50 per barrel, up from $48 per barrel in January. At the same time, the lender reduced its forecast for non-energy commodities, as agricultural and fertilizer prices are expected to be weaker than projected at the start of the year.
The oil recovery is slower than in past global oil shocks. The World Bank estimates crude prices would average around $58 per barrel this year if prices had been on the recovery path of major oil shocks over the last three decades, according to the report.
The lender notes crude-oil stocks among OECD countries remain near a record. However, the buildup slowed last month, suggesting that inventories had begun to tighten, according to the bank.
OPEC production is expected to remain flat, excluding Iran, whose output will climb by about 500,000 barrels per day, the lender said.
Prices could end up higher than expected if big non-OPEC producers reduce supply, Iranian exports grow more slowly than anticipated, and supply disruptions hit key OPEC producers such as Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela, the bank said. Downside risks include weak demand and the continued resilience of U.S. producers
Morning all, ;)) just what we were looking to here jr the flexibility the states now has as a swing oil producer is incredible and the investment in all those DUC's will have been money well spent for future production "cash in the ground" waiting for an increase in the POO which is happening and stabilising gradually hopefully to circa $50 ish.
With a bit of luck MAGP will follow the SP of Continental Resources SP which has doubled in the last three months and the confidence is building.
Continental have fracked 26 wells in Q1 2016 with Newy wells done and our own Sympson wells yet to come and getting closer, C'mon a good result across the ten wells could increase our production by circa 40%.......or more.
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