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Market analyst Rajan Dhall talks about the financial market


Inland Share Chat (INL)



Share Price: 58.00Bid: 57.50Ask: 58.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Inland
Spread: 1.00Spread as %: 1.74%Open: 56.125High: 59.00Low: 56.125Yesterday’s Close: 58.00


Share Discussion for Inland


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Toad1957
Posts: 39
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:58.25
Investors Chrinicle
Tue 13:17
Mispriced value play

I feel that investors are being too cautious in their valuation of Inland Homes (INL:57p), a specialist housebuilder and brownfield land developer. After I included the shares in my 2013 Bargain Shares portfolio at 23p ('How the 2013 Bargain Shares fared, 7 February 2014), the price rose almost fourfold to an all-time high of 89p at the start of last year. However, since then it has given back almost half those gains and is below the 61p level at which I last recommended buying, pencilling in a target price of 80p at the time ('Taking profits and running gains', 4 April 2017).

The recent lacklustre share price performance can be attributed to investor caution over the company hitting analyst profit estimates for the 12 months to end-June 2017. Analysts John Cahill and Miranda Cockburn at broking house Stifel predict a pre-tax profit of around £17m, up from £14.9m the previous year. Inland reported recurring pre-tax profits of £4.4m in the first half to end-December 2016, well below the annual run rate embedded in those estimates, largely due to the timing of land sales which can be lumpy due to their very nature. However, at the time of the half-year results at the end of March, the directors appeared confident that they could make up the shortfall and even sanctioned a 25 per cent increase in the half-year dividend to 0.5p a share, supporting analyst predictions of a full-year payout of 1.6p a share, up from 1.3p a share in the 2016 financial year.

Bearing this in mind, and coming just days before its financial year-ends, Inland reported recently that it had sold off two parcel of land with planning consent for 85 affordable homes for a total of £9.5m and has entered in construction contracts with the purchasers to build the units over the next 15 to 18 months. The company has also exchanged contracts to sell a refurbished listed building at one of those developments, Queensgate, Farnborough, for £1.95m. These disposals have generated free cash flow of £8m after paying down borrowings, and add £1m to EPRA net asset value (NAV).

Embedded in Stifel's aforementioned full-year profit forecasts are expectations that Inland will sell 240 private homes at an average price of £300,000 and at a gross profit margin of 20 per cent; and sell a total of 500 plots at an average price of around £105,000 from its land bank of 7,151 plots, of which more than a third have planning permission. In the first half, private residential home sales were steady at 101 units, but, more importantly, the housebuilding division's forward order book stood at £31.8m, up 52 per cent year on year, highlighting potential for a strong second half. So, although we will have to wait until the company issues its pre-close trading update on or around 23 July to see whether Stifel's forecasts have been met, if Inland was going to miss them the directors had the opportunity to say so recently.

It goes
 
Josh95
Posts: 644
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:56.125
RE: Strong update
Tue 00:03
Yes not the best price to sell at, but maybe he needs the funds or has another opportunity which he believes can outperform this or perhaps simply wishes to diversify? This is why I never invest in just one share.

In terms of gearing at the full year the gearing was c. 50% which although high compared to conventional housebuilders is still relatively modest and is covered well by earnings and backed strongly by assets so is not really of great concern, although I wouldn't like to see it go too much higher.

Small companies like this need debt to finance grow otherwise they would be tapping the market for equity further equity issues which is not optimal in terms of maximizing total shareholder return. That being said the higher gearing ratio will be contributing to the relatively higher volatility we have seen here but is still not a concern at this point IMO.
cm45
Posts: 367
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:56.125
RE: Strong update
Mon 16:03
Seems odd that Dixon would keep offloading at such low sp?
Haven't checked it out but I read some investors are worried about levels of debt in INL. Any thoughts?
Josh95
Posts: 644
Off Topic
Opinion:Buy
Price:55.00
Strong update
Mon 14:37
Strong update, sale of land and simultaneous commencement of construction contracts is good for cashflow and lowers risk.

Clearly a seller (probably Mark Dixon) keeping a lid on the price however- that's the problem with these illiquid AIM stocks.

Gives us all an opportunity to top up however whilst this continues to trade below NAV, just add, sit and wait.. one to tuck away. Yield approaching 3% too and below NAV = no brainer.
Toad1957
Posts: 39
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:55.50
RE: Bournemouth
Mon 08:33
I wish the market would wake up to the progress management is making. IC reckoned these shares to be worth 80p months ago and they have drifted ever since then!
sain@vision
Posts: 6,274
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:55.50
Bournemouth
Mon 08:31
Another deal?

http://www.heart.co.uk/southcoast/news/local/bournemouth-150m-land-redevelopment-step-closer/#OR84rg8sOuml8jVq.97

"Through the Bournemouth Development Company, the opportunity to acquire part of the site currently owned by Inland Homes PLC will enable a more holistic approach to be taken and deliver a comprehensive, landmark development.”
sain@vision
Posts: 6,274
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:54.25
RNS
Mon 07:34
Well Wicksy at least selling a few sites Lets hope his construction management team is up to speed to deliver the product without any hiccups Hope he gets to work on some off the larger lots and reduces exposure
worst
Posts: 174
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:52.75
help
Fri 06:47
My investment in this company is melting away. Cannot the directors please up their game to match the benefits they are receiving here ie. salary, bonuses, benefits, dividends on large numbers of shares allotted to them. If not, time for them to sell up to another housebuilder.
APAcquisitions
Posts: 286
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:52.75
Have I missed
Thu 20:20
something? Why the drop?
sain@vision
Posts: 6,274
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:54.50
Sales
16 Jun '17
SP reflecting the fact that sales have noticeably slowed at Inland,s various developments reaching completion We could do with some good news on a large site sale to put some hay in the barn . Come on Wicksy get cracking




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