Strange how a light volume day ends with a flurry of relatively high buys in a stock which trades in a very limited range. Not easy to make a turn here and many better opportunities elsewhere for traders.. The directors are sitting pretty with bundles of these shares locked into their names ready for them to cash-out but at what price, we wait and see.
Yes the market is stil relatively buoyant -unlikely to get any better so now is the time to put some hay in the barn and get selling the individual sites They havent got a faciity in place to build out all their sites
Sain@vision - I think that was demonstrated recently with the sale of their site in Acton tbh. It was a good consent; good part of the world. Their 58 units in Uxbridge is another good site - can't see any problem selling that either (if they go down that route).
On another note: don't forget they've had some problems with Vantage (main contractor that has since gone bust - that's a whole kettle of fish I wont go into on here) - that held back some completions in the first year.
Their natural business methodology is to build some sites and sell others - which ones they build remains to be seen but I think they tend to build a large site (say 200 units, building 40 to 60 a year, whilst refining the planning permission on the remaining units to be built following their sales experiences on the first 40-60). In this way the built sites cover their overhead and provide a consistent cashflow whilst the land sales provide the lumpiness we're seeing. Good sites sell. They'll probably sell their Beaconsfield site but build the Tesco one (cheshunt) - afterall - it's a JV - you can't flip a JV without royally upsetting the partner - and in this case - why would you upset Tesco - when there are literally hundreds of other sites in their portfolio. Setting up a JV on paper is easy - putting it into a legally binding contract quite another - once you've got the contract sorted - should be relatively straightforward to contract on the same basis on other sites they own.
The problem with the valuation of development land it has a nasty habit of retrenching when access to capital becomes more difficult .What would be encouraging is a whole host of majors beating a path to Inland's door to buy it
Nothing to write home about really, profits were always going to be lumpy here and INL did warn they would be more heavily weighted towards the second half last year.. the latest planning successes will have already added to the EPRA NAV which is now forecast to hit 100p by FY.
I still see this as a great buy at 60p or below. Net assets have risen to 118mn in Dec so the business is trading at just 125/118 = 1.06x historical Net assets which is a very undemanding and will surely limit any significant downside risk.. but with considerable upside potential (as demonstrated by EPRA figures) the risk reward trade off seems heavily skewed to the latter here.
Appreciate that half years are no respecters of physical completion dates but lets hope that the majority of those £31.8m forward sales fall in H2 I thnk he needs to turn the tap on in getting some more land sales sorted not entirely confident that they have got a complete handle on actually building them
I've never sure that a mainstream builder would know what to do with them. There is a strong entrepreneurial streak at INL and as the founders would move on in the event of a sale - that would present a barrier to purchase. However I have held these for 4 years and when I retrace the increase in stock as I've reinvested the dividends - I am not sure I care!
To see any of these sites through is going to require a lot of capital which maybe wont be available to them in the future These sites are oven ready there is a bit of momenetum in M&A in the sector Wicks is a dealmaker and if he can sell out for 95p a share I certainly wouldnt complain
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