It's suffering hugely now on sentiment loss alone. I think the market is pricing in apathy, very small volume and given the bods dire communication history it's unlikely we'll see an RNS until they have absolutely no alternative but to release one. Clinicaltrials.gov still shows "not yet recruiting", I am going to have to top up to bring my crazy average down at some point. Last bought at .38 thinking it couldn't go any lower......frustrated with this one.
Thats my philosophy. Sentiment rock bottom. Buy as many as you can. What on earth is the market pricing in? Massive dilution? Cataclysmic failure?
I repeat Just £20m MC for a company with a potential multi-billion value drug going into PIII trials. Perhaps people don't believe it anymore, I don't know, but I believe it will happen and buying in at this rock bottom price will make my gains that more substantial in percentage terms. An opportunity too good to miss.
Needs confirmation on placing before this one can move, bounced from 24 which was my long term target but hasnt exactly reached for the skies. Fishing has large amounts of boredom involved before you bring in the big catch. More games I suspect before they take it up
Imm's had a poor last two years in terms of SP performance.
It's interesting to note that at the time of the last big SP spike in 2013 there were two key announcements:
1. KOL appointment 2. FDA SPA
The SP more than doubled at this time.
I think 2016 is going to be a year of turn around for the IMM SP. We will see confirmation of PIII funding and we will see patient recruiting all by end Q1.
When, not if, sentiment returns on the back of tangible, measurable progress the SP could go a lot higher because valuations in this kind of scenario are so hard to make it will simply come down to market enthusiasm and sentiment.
snark, worth a read of the link below for a slightly different take on the anifrolumab results which serves as a good reminder that there's a way to go yet. You may remember that UCB/Immunomedic's epratuzumab was the last Lupus phase III to report and sadly failed to meet its endpoints. However at phase II it had the same issues of correlation between dose and response and a low response rate from the placebo arm.
It goes without saying that any new drug approvals can only be good for patients who desperately need new treatments. Their sales and marketing budgets will also help to raise awareness of the disease and this can only help to grow the market. The drug that wins out in the end will simply be the most effective.
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