I understand that the protocol of Lupozor ph3 trial (6 months treatment + 6 months follow up) suggests a read out early 2018. That is what everybody expects: the company, the analysts and everybody else in this forum. I beg to differ. I am very confident that the trial will be stopped after the last patient in has completed his/her 6 months treatment, ie mid 2017. At that time the DSMB will take a peek at the data and according to my understanding of the MoA of the drug and the usual pattern of the placebo effect, the primary endpoint will be met with a significant p value. I have done an extensive review of the SLE literature, and there is simply no doubt in my mind. Just for the sake of illustration, see page 5 of the paper http://ard.bmj.com/content/early/2016/03/23/annrheumdis-2015-208562.full.pdf+html
If you look they were all AT trades so more that likely stop losses been triggered, the mm ran the price down to mop them up, I never set AT as you always buy a quarter pense higher or sell lower, There's one O ordinary trade which is when you get a quoted price and you accept it,
The last trade was a UT a uncrossing trade, which I think is the MM getting their books in order at end of the day,
It's always nice to see a gain at the end of the day but don't worry about these little fluctuations and drops,
Only just seen this little drop from late on Friday. That was definitely systematic selling, that's not pi's. 10k shares followed by smaller followed by 10k shares. Notice the sell for 7173 and after hours 2127 = 10k shares. Too regimented in the amounts and close together, whilst maximising best SP. This is almost certainly an opportunity to buy, nothing has changed, it will be interesting to see if this continues.... I alluded to previously is lanstead can sell and average 100% rise, that's a cracking return. Time will tell, I'm not flustered. I don't think we shall be advancing too far past 55p for a month or two, unless news arrives. But from June - December that's when I think we will see the real action here.
Best not to worry about these short term price movements on low volume; if you believe, buy on the dips Nothing will be decided until a deal is done or the results of the phase 3 are known. Best to tuck away for 9 the next 11 months.
The more I think about it, a distribution deal would go down great with the market if it's with one of AstraZeneca's competitors. Keep it in IMM's hands so we keep control and grow the company organically....Thoughts???
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