Do you have a view on why Niel Infrastructure (a private company created in Sep 2013) crystalised its debt at this time? There seem to me to be two options. First, they see IMIC going bust before 2016 and intend to sell their shares asap to recover as much of their money as possible. The remaining uncrystalised debt is a hedge in this scenario. Second, they know that IMIC/AIOG is about to benefit from the announcement of the decision on the Mbalam Convention infrastructure contract and want to have the sort of influence on decision making that comes with holding nearly 30% of the shares as the largest single holder. (I take it that their interest is in the infrastructure because there's another Niel Company that deals with mining). If the first, then it won't stop at 12p. If the second then your prediction is doomed. Either way, the next couple of months are going to be quite interesting.
I was one of the people who noticed that the 40p convertible loan note was being valued at almost nothing by the market. After the acquisition was announced Afferro was still trading at 74p even though IMIC were offering 80p plus the 40p loan note.
A quick look told me that IMIC wasn't certain to be bankrupt before buying back the loan note and so I bought AFF at 74p. I had a chance to sell at 86p even when the acquisition was announced as firm. I stuck with it and received 80p, a gain of 8%. (I'm only a cheapskate trader). If IMIC survives to 2015 I will either get IMIC shares or a 56p cash payment. That means I paid 8p to receive 56p. It's even better than that if you net off the 6p gain I made so 56p for nothing.
I have been assuming that other investors thought IMIC would go bust, but I'm happy to have the 7 to 1 on that bet (ignoring inflation) , especially after the helpful post from Gheebhee today. Net of gain it is more like
I have to say I wouldn't be paying 28p today for an IMIC share (I think it may drop to 12p before appreciating substantially, based on Elliott waves).
It would be nice to see a market made in the loan note though, as that would tell me how much of a cheapskate I really am. At my age I don't buy green bananas all that much.
Wandering around LSE posting links to investingsidekick is one way of passing the time I suppose. As for the content, it seems to miss the fact that IMIC ceased to be an investment company when it acquired Afferro and was then readmitted to AIM as a mining company. I'm no advocate of IMIC or a supporter of the two front men covering for AIOG, believe me, but the analysis seems to be shallow in the extreme. Guinea may be a nightmare and Liberia a dead end not worth mentioning but with the Sundance Cameroon Port and Infrastructure competition down to the final two and IMIC/AIOG on one (at least) of the teams, I would have thought the former AFF licences might be worth a bob or two. Then there's the contents of M. Gueant's and Mr Cooper's contact books to consider....
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