On here . . . lull before the storm, again that K/S nailed it regards price drop to 240's . . . . Hope that his( possibly) lower predictions don't follow . Fck this for a lark (AIM) , (GWPH). I'm not laughing.
* soz, i misheard jimmy fallon, it is the legal market now worth 5.4 billion, not the illegal market..
yes i can, GW sell their product around the world, and have done for at least the same time as a small US state, and yet GW with their high priced product sell a fraction of what colorado do, the yanks think GW is a pot stock, so the point i am making is that sales are terribly low, and based on the results from the expanded access trails dont look to be improved upon any time soon. if it works for less than 50% of the potential market how do they expect to make profits? Justin grover thinks epidiolex will be worth 1 billion, the market seems to disagree, he also thinks only the brits dont have the stomach to lose 50% of their investment, and yet it is plainly obvious that the yanks are the ones dropping the share price on an almost daily bases for the last 6 or 7 months, they giveth, and they taketh away.. they are not the least bit sentimental, and they will crush gw if epidiolex fails, way more than 50%, unless gw start to sell product in buckets.. the mad thing is if epidiolex fails other companies will still sell buckets of CBD oil, but GW will sell none, it is a binary event, and one that they could hedge against by selling standard CBD oil, so far practically all their money is from investment, start selling product justin!!!
You can't compare the Colorado market or the US cannabis market with GW. Probably 80% of that market is really recreational. From what I've heard from friends that have gone out to the US to start the cannabis market, pushing medicinal cannabis was really just a very good way to push for legalisation. Its really easy to get hold of medicinal cannabis and a lot of recreational uses will by medicinal cannabis strains.
I never look at turnover - what to they say 'turnover is sanity, profit is reality'. I don't care what the turnover of GW is but as a shareholder I do care about what there profits will be.
GW isn't competing head on with medicinal herbal cannabis. Their growing and production will fall under FDA regulations that CW will never get or want to get. GW''s product will be given in hospitals to very very sck patients - again you can't do that we unregulated uncontrolled medicinal cannabis,
I totally agree wise one. sad thing is 3 people i know are stuck up high, wouldn't take the hit when i told them too, weird when they were happy to accept my upward predictions, the fear of losing a few hundred quid as opposed to thousands baffles me.
and the black market sell $5.4 billion of the stuff in the USA, GW will never sell that much unless they get off the political solution model and start to sell product that people want and can afford, the war on drugs is over, they have the skill and infrastructure to sell cannabis or its oil but are held back by their own model / belief in the political solution, nothing is stopping them from competing with the likes of CW, except their own belief which is historical, and they should now move forward and be ahead of the game... focusing only on orphan drugs will no longer be the gravy train it once was, there is a huge market out there that GW could tap into, if only they could wake up and see it. so its over to you Justin, knock em dead at leerink swan, or watch this stock drop to $5 and less...
Epidolex have the same cannabis as CW but it a pharmaceutical drug - so it can be prescribed in hospitals etc. The development work that has gone into this has cost $100's of millions of dollars. Becuase its a pharmaceutical drug its being sold all over the world - so it may have the same cannabis plant in the product but its a very different product in many ways.
The key question was Epidolex worth all that investment? Probably not. It's too expensive and isn't selling that well. Have GW learnt valuable lessons? Lets hope so. It can't afford another relative failure.
A 300%+ rally is now required to get anywhere close to the GW high from a five months back. Personaly i can't envisage that happening regardless of the top line results Glover always bangs him drum about. Having closely followed GW for about a decade & a half im postulating Epidiolex is a bust. In which case sub £1 a pop is looking highly plausible. I pity those who filled their boots at prices of £5 £6 £7. The GW director did well dumping a few million £' worth a few months back. All this is my personal congecture as i have no insider knowledge. Good luck to all those invested. It looking like you'll need it. I however don't believe in luck & im glad i dumped significant holdings above £5.
just closed @ $44.72 on nasdaq - £2.57 (dropped a bit lower just before the end) shorts are all over it now and i can see it dropping to at least $30, possibly lower, i cant see earnings causing a bounce, more likely a drop so it could easily head towards about £1.50 before epidiolex data either kills it for good or saves it, i couldn't even guess what a positive data bounce could do due to the overall bearish markets.
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