Hi ValJu, sorry running behind as usual due to attending to my business requirements in parallel with reading here. Didn't grasp your theory in regard to the KRG independence factor. Please clarify. In respect of pi elimination, yes, of course that must be the objective but the real issue/question might be: will the SP have to rise in order for the accumulators to take profits or will the 'profits' manifest themselves in the form of GKP ownership/future value? If so, it could mean that the SP would have to rise by far less than true value (?) to the level of a low takeover (successful, obviously) bid - thereby shafting all remaining investors. In summary, if enough shareholders hold enough shares purchased at low SPs, a takeover price will be voted through at low levels rather than high levels because the vote-casting accumulators will be buying at the proposed TO price, not selling, at that point. Does that make any sense? In any case, please keep the thread alive for discussion and input from others who will understand the scenarios more clearly than I do. The subject is very important for us all to take into account when considering our strategies.
My own view of Genel is that the listing price was too high. It has been below that level for most of the time. Whilst the recent dip appears heavy, if one guesstimates the initial over-pricing, the effect isn't so marked. One of the things that one can do is calculate the market cap. value per 2P and per 2P+2C barrel, at listing and now, and consider those numbers. The same measure for Gulf as it stands today (2P, and 2P+2C) is an interesting comparison.
the lower the sp, the more chance of a takeover... not that it will suit all, but, its looking more likely.... mcap just over 250 mil, which is the size of the last loan and the one before that... sp is utter nonsense... imo
two days ago, that expect low 20s as we wait for news, but that if we survive the payment fiasco then this will repeat history and climb like it did previously. The worry is just payments, the bond interest in particular. We have enough in local sales for treading water, if KRG pay an amount in addition for export that covers the bond payment in October then we can breath easy again We can pump all the oil we like but getting paid for it is the important bit We must maintain £50m in bank
Personally i think we will get it all in time and survive, but thats the only news that matters now is financial increase in revenue. We have many ways to reach it 1. A payment from KRG in addition to local sales 2 Sell company if price right 3, sell an asset 4 farm in partner who takes some costs and/or pays big sum to farm in
So although a risk of failure with not enough payments, there is favourable odds that we will get thru it. Most pi's todays price is irrelevant and its price at the end game that matters
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