There can be little doubt that Phulbari is a significant coal deposit. Therealisation of value from the resource depends on government approval of GCM’s Scheme of Development. We believe that fundamental progresstowards approval has been achieved as the current government has setalleviation of the country’s energy crisis as one of its principal objectives.As the proposed mine and an associated power plant could generate 25% of Bangladesh’s electricity, approval would help the government showprogress on meeting these objectives ahead of elections in late 2013.
GCM Resources holds mining and exploration licences in northwest Bangladeshwhere a resource of some 572Mt of mixed thermal and semi-soft coking coal hasbeen outlined to date. We believe the thermal portion will find a ready market inBangladesh with any surplus exported to growing Asian markets. Indeed, thestructural shortfall in electricity generation capacity across Bangladesh – which islikely to be exacerbated as demand grows with economic and social developmentand natural gas reserves are depleted – should see increased focus on coal as analternative. There is currently no domestic demand for the semi-soft fraction and sowe expect this will be exported until a local industry develops.Of course, there remain a number of hurdles that need to be jumped ahead of thestart of construction. Not least of these is the company resolving the variousenvironmental and social concerns to the government’s satisfaction. Of these thereare two key elements: resettlement and water management. First, the companyneeds to continue with its work to win local acceptance for its major resettlementprogramme. Second, its proposed quality-enhancing water management systemshave been demonstrated to government and this should also help its case.Looking forwards, a mine producing up to the company’s target of around15Mt/year, of which about 20% could be higher value semi-soft coking coal, standsto generate a significant profit margin over a long mine life. While we take a moreconservative approach to production potential we recognise that there is scope toincrease output and hence the value of the project significantly.
We have completed a number of valuations of GCM based on a range of parameters.These show that the group is currently worth around 200p but that it would increaseto 440p on the approval of the Scheme of Development. Longer term, minedevelopment could see the shares increase to over 1200p, and maybe as high as1480p even after allowing for an equity issue to cover part of the con
Coal prices rising by the day. But more and more only qualty coal is wanted We have a 1st class reserve. With 1st class coal The best in the industry guiding us . A lawyer who has a much bigger vision and depth of understanding in bangla than most. Extremly weslthy. The last thing he cares about is a few million unlike many other aim shares Completely supported Sp at around 10p. Day to day price watching can really drive me mad but the bigger picture looks good. More than ever i will load when i can after the PM refrance on the 27
just hoovered up above the bid, someones taking them, as they did all the way down to 10p, coal price increased again today, C.P must be due soon with P.M, promoting open pit, it also seems eco goes out of window with rampel being pushed, THEY NEED POWER AND ARE PUSHING, all bodes well for GCM
Skinner, when you think of the damage that that newspaper article has done and potentially what it could have done, I would not be surprised if they are hit with a massive fine. I understand that the Bangla law system is rather slow, but one thing that Tang is good at, amongst other things, is legal issues. I found that positive Hassina Youtube clip the other day and posted the link on here. That looks to me like more public conditioning going on, give the people all the positives about open pit at Phulbari and dispel the BS. I think that GCM played a blinder with the last RNS, it mentions feedback from Government sources who confirmed that the article did not impact the Phulbari decision. I know it is a difficult stock to hold but tick tock, I am sure this will happen. GPback we need you back on here mate, no one can research like you. With the GCM RNS you have been completely vindicated, the article that was so damming for us was a pack of lies. GLA
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