Great posts which are from a genuine holder. A massive risk here and who knows how large the cake will be. I think it will be massive and hopefully will end up for the shareholders who've kept this company alive buying headroom etc. I think the pie is massive, market the same and ability to monetise is there. Hopefully SN et al had the sense to ensure the defensive shares released to the service providers are back in the right hands, SN's. 2.3n shares certainly haven't flooded the maket as we'd be below where we were 2 weeks ago. A lot in play here. CLNs rolled over, 20 years work from SN et al traders in and out but gasification is happening and that news on gas sales should happen any day.
Mole very good post it pretty much sums up how I feel
I went digging for info on our Mr hope today and found it rather hard to find any positives. Again thou it comes down to SN not communicating effectively. There has been no reason for Mr hope joining also no nice write up on end of RNS saying we welcome him and expect his experience to help the company to fulfil it's targets bla bla black. it's almost like SN has reluctantly been forced to allow hope on the board. I wonder if money or should i say dept was used as a leverage. if so it shows how right my previous post is. let's hope that Mr hope is here as a good thing although his company is nothing more than a ambulance chaser but on a grander scale and in business world. what I often call predator scum
How they shouted they passing secrets to get a hostile takeover and then fight them in court then give them a job on the board were they get to no everything there has got to be a reason sn has done this I still wondering it all seems to have turned round and bit sn in the bum I still wondering if outrider had something on sn we will never prob find out
Well building up debt, not doing director buys, service providers exiting equity position, arrival of potentially hostile player on the board, delays in operations and low cashflow, driving down the equity price to maximise conversion....Seriously we have already seen several red flags here. I am locked in so hold here but the risk here at the moment is very high.
Positives at the moment would be the fact that they appear to have sufficient cash to enable operations to continue without an emergency fundraise agm to increase headroom and that the rollover means it's unlikely it can be used to force a restructure on its own.
I think it's highly likely we will only find out what has happened once papers for Agm issued. They are as usual running a tight ship meaning it's hard to work out which way this will play out. I think we are likely to get something like last june. Anyone who thinks they know needs to be careful here. I'm still broadly positive but would have felt more relaxed with Hope not on the board and letting the operations do the talking.
Mole, What are the signs that we need to look out for to be prepared for anything bad happening? Can we fight against it? Or would outrider and SN hold too many cards and we as shareholders just be passengers on what ever they wanted. They could certainly hold enough shares between them to do what they wanted
Now do the same for jaguar mining. I had this discussion with quindell in august! I'll keep reiterating this point. My main concern is not just hope but that the board and I think uniserve hold RPN notes which have grown massively in the last year. A company doing well will use debt to leverage growth to reward equity holders who are the real owners of the company. What you have seen with MOIL is what happens when debt holders take over a company from equity when due to cash flow problems you can't pay your debts.
Now the CLN are paid in kind at 12% or in cash at 10%. They have been rolled over for 4 years and have no trigger to convert to equity. So we don't need to worry at the moment about paying interest. It will simply accrue. The only way they can bring that debt into play is if the company restructured it's capital to fund something and as part of the restructure a rights issue and debt for equity swap is executed. That is what happened at jaguar mining.
We simply do not know if the board with Mr hope intend to execute such a restructure. We were supposed to be cash positive in December and the service providers are supposed to have been paid for a 2 year program off work and we have access to YA for loans and once we have headroom SEDA drawdowns. it is entirely possible that a capital injection is made by one of outrider introduced partners and some debt is swapped for equity as well combined with a consolidation. The consolidation was floated as a possibility in the q and a last year. Equally here I would not rule out one of the outrider partners having hoovered up part of the 2bn that YA offloaded since June or the 2bn from the service providers.
The point I keep coming back to is that if the field is as valuable as SN says then you want equity not debt before the value is released. The board have done precisely the opposite and built up RPN debt that can be converted to equity.
The risk here with players who like to remain in the shadows is massive. Our fate is entirely dependent on SN repeated mantra that we are aligned to their equity and debt investment in the company. The truth is that given their illusive tendancy shareholders have no way to test that alignment claim or indeed whether Hope is now driving us.
Noticed earlier question about board pay. They appear to take a salary but not share based remuneration. As a result I have not seen anything separated out in the accounts. This year related parties and I presume that is the board took the salary as Loan notes they paid themelves alot this year $3.9m in total! But not able to attribute that or break it down further and for all we know that item could even be the service providers as there is no commentary in the accounts explaining that unusual item.
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