Weeks did he say. How many 52. Lol Steve C. Nicandros, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer commented "Our November program represents another important step in the continuation of our evolving well stimulation work. Our work at the Udabno#2 well is particularly important, as we plan to undertake a testing program that is designed to evaluate an extensive gas-bearing interval of approximately 2,000 meters in gross thickness. I look forward to communicating results in the weeks ahead."
I have just completed a year end review of my investments, and surprisingly I find myself back into a bullish mood on this stock (which is the only one I ever post upon). Key reasons as follow:
- Back in the summer I mentally wrote off a rather large loss here. It was the right thing to do in my mind – but the upside is that now any increase in SP is a positive. A very personal perspective I know – but on AIM we should all be prepared to do this occasionally.
- The 2200 BOE is key for me. Whilst technically they don’t have to report on this until after the year end I am very sure that the Nomad will be pressing them should there be any significant likelihood of a shortfall. So every day that goes by bodes well in my view.
- There is plenty of comment regarding Outrider and the CC, and I personally am pretty sure that there will be a positive outcome. Outrider are the biggest single CLN holder – and it is worth reminding on the timeline here:
o June 2011 - new 5 year CLNs offered o August 2011 - new 5 year CLNs issued o Late 2011 - early 2012 Outrider acquire $14.7 million of CLNs for $4 million. o January 2012 - Outrider acquire 152 million shares from Plainfield - which itself was about to go bust o April 2015 - Outrider dispose of its equity holding - presumably after being caught out, and presumably at a loss
So less than 12 months after the original CLNs were issued by Frontera Holdings Outrider bought half of them at an enormous discount. What does this tell you? Well first – the original holder did not see them as having anything like full market value even then. Presumably because of the parent guarantee (or lack of). Second, Outrider must have realised this – you don’t get that bigger discount without a reason. Third – apply that discount to the whole CLN portfolio and at best the value is around $8 or $9 mn – in 2012! My view – the whole CLN approach was planned like this from day one – and the holders were treated in this way simply because they did not take part in the 2011 capital restructure. I suspect the SN participation here was purely cosmetic – to illustrate his family sharing in the pain
- Finally there is the exhausting of the headroom – the source of much of our recent depression. But think about it another way – the last few releases have been delivered knowing that the headroom ceiling is fast approaching. Either very reckless, or perhaps a sign of confidence. Knowing that a solution is being constructed, and in the meantime using what’s left of the shares to pay the legal bills. Whilst I am sure there will be a further headroom request I am also sure that other sources of capital will also be followed up – much as the conference call suggested.
Then add the tax rebate in the New Year, the AC relationships, Abchurch appointment, hopefully the gas, a CPR in H1 2017……………
Also don't forget that Frontera there is a 2nd class action where they are suing outrider for misappropriating confidential information handed to them and disclosing it to another company without Frontera's knowledge so that company could gain a material advantage ie a cheap takeover. This was done twice to two different potential farm in partners.
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