Frontera is very pleased to continue to advance its work with Naftogaz and to further focus its upstream initiative in Ukraine with UGV as an important element of our Greater Black Sea Strategy.
"Ukraine represents a unique opportunity for meaningful growth in Europe with its significant underdeveloped and under-explored oil and gas potential such that, with joint initiatives like ours, it will accelerate its path toward becoming an important supplier of energy not only to its domestic markets, but also to greater Europe in years to come. With this in mind, we are very pleased to continue to advance our work with the forward-looking management of Naftogaz and UGV"
1. The seller - probably the lucky people who got the 31m at a discount thanks to YA are most likely selling and must be nearly done. IN spite of the selling the price is holding reasonably firm as they got them around .485 same as YA that must be a bottom on the price they are selling at and you would think they want a premium. Around the time the large sale went through the spread tightenned again to .56/.57 wheras it has been wider all week. Have they finished - nearly I think and someone has once again hoovered them all up. That two big lumps gone somewhere. Once they are out of the way I would guess we will return to the .60/.70 range pending news.
2. We get the MOU - agree with SimonT to a degree on the market angle. SN intends to sell the gas to Ukraine via the micro LNG shipping and probably Turkey. I still think the reason we don't have large gas sales (as opposed to production ) is they don't have a way in at volume into the Georgian market. That is just my supposition. But SN has been quite clear about Georgia being an exporter in 3 years. The MOU partner has a bit more flesh on it today. And while the short term partnership is export of the Georgian gas longer term SN is looking ahead to the greater black sea strategy.
3. In spite of the murmerings from inside Georgia FRR have once again repeated the gas claims. They have done so now in Dec, Jan and Feb. The Georgian state reaction is odd when you consider they have a 50% interest in the producing assets - while we may know nothing it would be a surprise if the bureaucrats did not have more information. Its the politicians lined up to the ruling Georgia Dream who seem rattled. The old incumbants now in opposition who are probably closer aligned to Ukraine - the leader is in Ukraine as a governor where the LNG project would terminate. It would be interesting to hear some of their comments on this. Hence tend to concur with some of Billy's supposition re: the current administration.
I'm holding with all but £1k now fully paid up. If this goes wrong you'll never get out quick enough if you hold any serious volume - so I'm now in for the end game here.
That SN, the AC and US trust Georgia that much imo...
You'd have thought after the initial CPR that the government would have been pressing to get involved further like what happened in Azerbaijan after the Shah Deniz find... You have to wonder why they have been in the main at arms length and not very helpful even with PR..
You can say they dont have enough evidence, but they will have access to the same info as the Atlantic Council have and they have built a bleeding strategy around it...
As they say in Georgia you can take the Georgian out of Russia but you cant take the Russian out of... Well you get it...
I once went out with a miss uk... She was welsh.. Peace Efarny was her name.. African origin... Nice girl who worked i a chippy in Plymouth lol
I think Simon has hit the nail on the head. FRR need customers. Georgia currently have ample supply through transit gas and also their long term contracts with Azerbaijan. The 2 MOU with Ukraine give them an outlet for the gas in the short term whilst helping them develop their own fields in the longer term...
That allows time to develop SK further and get the gas locked into the SCP and TANAP and out to Europe.
I don't think it is about moving into the Ukraine, I think it is to add value to FRR in a buy out and also as part of the process required to book reserves to the balance sheet. To do this they have to show commerciality, CPR confirming gas, wells with flow rates, how it will be funded, transported and where the Ukraine come in, customers!
It is another duck being put in line, all be it off the end of the line at the moment yet to be connected to the main line by the CPR duck, funding plan duck and maybe the LNG unit ducks. Just my opinion of course!
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