Agreed mate. Money is power an knowledge of where the money is going to be next is s lot of power, I' started in 2012 an have learnt a lot just through watching the markets an listening to folk on here and the way the game is played.
Investing in oil exploration is a very long term game from find to production add exploration on top and its serious time.
I agree that the share price is being played by institutions, but I also feel sentiment is a powerful thing on AIM. Not many invest longer term an it's all about trading the swing. Hence the herd follow the shares with the biggest swing. Look at xel, an blvn a couple of years backed pumped an traded like billio.
Is being driven purely by the RKH price just now which itself is being driven by UBS and some of its clients shorting RKH (see RKH RNS) probably until OPEC is out of the way, Fed int also, and RKH EGM re 160 mln new shares all of which takes us to 14/15 Dec. As to the FOGL BoD mistake that was a year or so back when it was an honest misreading of Humpy 3D etc. (NBL also) which begs the question of how accurate was the 3D. I'm not defending the BoD by the way.
you have just described the sentiment over reality valuation that i was debating with eegbvi last week or two (i said $0.6 /bl eegbvi was saying $1.5 / bl) . in the current market you need herd to make an oiler sp move up, and the discount to fundamentals without is huge.
The Sp has dropped from the 30s because back then oil price was higher, we had a better than anticipated second well, the herd we excited an in here as well as the possibility of humpy being a game changer. It's now dropped due to price of oil, humpy being a duster, the next well isn't a fogl well. An finally an importantly we have no money an the Hurd have moved onto the next flavour of the month.
reserve based leading (RBL) can only be obtained on assets going into or are in production - the cash flow secures the repayments. similarly with bond funding.
so it was equirty or sale - the CPR does not get more equity - i would suggest the market was fully aware of what the cpr would say and is now (after all if fogl / rkh / pmo all say management estimates are x & y and they are much the same then the CPR is just a 3rd party confirmation)
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