Karita it's funny you should say that because on another BB of a share I'm invested in, a regular poster keeps harping on about an historical high of the SP about 4 years ago and implying it can get there again. Failed to mention that at the time there was at least half the amount of shares in issue
Firstly like to say I'm a believer in this share. First purchased back in the days of 2010 @2p (old money).This board has some great members that I hold with great respect, placing some great views/opinions & links. I have held through times of good (£1.70) to times of despair (18p) telling myself I'm an investor not a trader. However being so close to a share it becomes dangerous as I find my heart rules my head a lot of the time.
Off have come the rose tinted glasses this time around. More disappointing news. Seems CNR never gets a break, like MC has run over a black cat or something! Need to rule with the head. Ever since we knew the EIA would be (if passed) stamped with a 2017 date this SP was only going one way. Yes a rock sample RNS may help with a short term blip but I think everyone agrees that the EIA permit is king. We're a grown up share now that's over that type of hype. If this is not passed then the project is a fail. On the flip side when it does grant, then this grown up share can expect to command ii funds or sensible buy out offers.
I have this time sold out in tranche's. 84p/79p/74p/70p. Still hold a core quantity but intend not to be hit with the losses occurred end of 2015 ( when i went grey) but use this period as an opportunity to average down.
Some say it wont ever hit 60p or 50p or 40p. Really? They could be right & the company does deserve better, but then did any of us ever envisage it could go to 18p? Can never say never. If i'm wrong, I intend still to win by buying back at same prices on the way up & hope end up even. Got to de-risk. I do with other shares not sure why i treat this one differently?
Getting Ross on board was a massive achievement. Even though a drop in ocean to him £ wise & a fab price of 40p + warrants it was welcomed & needed. My interpretation is RISK is still to huge for majors to invest in.The EIA is the critical part of the jigsaw. It's ok for MC to say its 'technically passed', thats the same as my daughter has passed her theory test. It's nice...... but it's not a licence to drive.
My main 3 risks currently are as follows & at varied levels.
*Government election -RISK- Are we 100% sure a pro-mining candidates will win? Is there a chance an anti-mining minister/s could come to power?
*Public Consultations- RISK- Are there any unforeseen issues out there not identified or addressed by the management team? Genuine concerns maybe be laid out by the people that the ministry have to take into consideration & ask for a mitigation plan. Further delaying the EIA permit being granted.
*Land Acquisitions- RISK- Only 30% of the required land is successfully purchased. What happens if one or more landowners do not play ball & not sell at any price or ask a ridiculous price which will knock on to the others that have agreed. Any land accessing the highway is critical for the project.
The risks are apparent. Would you invest millions now
Glad u see the big picture as it's easy to get blinded here, as expensive as this looks it's still a very cheap share considering what we spent so far and what reserves been proven up, what is puzzling is the dropping share price but what comes down comes back up, lack news is a issue here right now and constant delays....
Many investors, especially who invest in AIM market do not even know terms like market capitalisation and how it is calculated. They only see a share price on their screens, the lower it is the more quantity they get for their money, therefore then it has to be a bargain. Buying creates momentum which feeds itself until... Perhaps (as Patryk has suggested) after consolidation CNRs share price looks expensive even though in reality it is very cheap. But it is how it is perceived which matters. To be honest after consolidation CNR shareprice has lacked momentum. Would be interesting to debate was this a right decision, usually it tends to be quite brutal to the share price.
The share price went from 5p to 80p in solg. Point to note jibbo regardless of what was drilled it sp went berserk! So any samples r welcome. Plus we'll be finding samples on area known to have gold deposits. Not like solg
Rock chip samples are pretty meaningless IMO. I remember SOLG getting numerous 300g/t chip samples in the Soloman Islands which sent the sp up on hype. When it was drilled there was nothing there! Drill intercepts are what matter.
I suspect it will depend on when MC chooses to release the latest high grade rock chip samples from Los Limones - expect numbers above 50g/t. The last rock chip sample from there was around 1.5kg and had over 50g of gold in it. (!!)
I will be fighting you for them at 60p mind - could do with another 25-30k more shares here..
Just had a browse through their latest presentation. No PFS or even PEA, stated drill holes are low grade, randomly it states:
Larger systems endowed with over 10M oz Au and 5Mt Cu - 10M oz Au systems are very rare
Though I couldn't see any firm numbers alluding to a 10m oz au resource!
Not sure what's going on here, can't see anything that justifies such a high valuation, but then again these markets are completely irrational and share prices do not reflect fundamentals. Looks like sentiment is driving this one alone, which is interesting as it's diverging from the other junior goldies (i.e. GDXJ, which Condor seems to be tracking for the time being). Then again it is a VERY early stage explorer and I believe they tend to move big on sentiment alone, until some reality sets in to the actual potential. I think even Condor moved like this in the early days.
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