oil will always be at a price where the oil companies make huge profits (long term),at present about 80 dollars or above ,this is not to say it may trade below for a number of months or even a year or more ,but it wont come ouyt of the ground unless there's a buck to be made .
Hi Tom78. Thanks for your input. Yes, i do agree that the Saudis recognise the shale gas 'explosion' in the US but as I see it, there are a number of other factors. 1. There are 12 members of OPEC and some are countries who rely very heavily on a high oil price. Consequently, they really want to shore up the price to perhaps 80USD per barrel. By all accounts after the OPEC meeting concluded, there was a fractious atmosphere with one minister (perhaps Venezuelas?) storming out - very upset at the 'joint' ruling to keep production levels of 30million bopd the same. Saudis and other gulf countries can shoulder the dip in prices but Nigeria, Ecuador and Iraq for example are going to lose billions each day the price of Brent is below 75USD. OPEC is/was not united. 2. OPEC are not the power they once were. Today OPEC control around 40% of oil and with the advent of Shale, they know they have a big challenge ahead of them. By keeping oil output the same, they are potentially going for the 'one punch' knockout in the hope that they (and the rest of OPEC) can severely disrupt the shale expansion in the US. i.e. Gambling on the price of a barell of oil going to such a low level that the US shale companies 'call it quits'. IMHO, that won't happen, technology will come to the fore and if a cheaper method of sourcing energy is found, ultimately, the economies of the world will be directed by that. 3. Personally, I don't believe OPEC have a full grasp on the situation. The 7% decline in the price of oil as a result of their inaction will (hopefully) have their delegates rethinking how they voted this afternoon. Did we do the right thing??? Hindsight will say 'No', but unless an emergency meeting is called, they must live with the decision they made today - However painful it may be!!! BRENT is headed to USD 66 per barrel IMHO.
There are many factors. I have read it may be to support prices long term by driving some of the shale gas companies out of business in the US, they need at lest 70$ to cover costs. Saudia Arabia is wealthy and can manage with a lower oil price for a while - but not forever.
Anyone have any thought regarding OPECs decision earlier today? There is surely a bigger 'game' being played out here but as I see it, OPECs refusal to lower oil production flies in the face of their existing mission statement. i.e. '...... ensure the stabilization of oil markets' and ' secure .... a steady income to producers'. Dont they look at the price of crude oil????. Heck, its capitulated for the last 6 months in a row and its going to go down further!!!. So much for a stabilisation of markets and a steady income from producers. What tosh!!!
The American courts will not be satisfied until they have rung every last cent out of BP , it's a joke one sad joke. We should as keen in looking into Starbucks , Amazon and the likes !! But we play fair and don't like upsetting our American cousins . British companies operate in USA at their own peril.
As per her famous 90's hit.. 'The only way is up...'.. All joking aside, surely the American Judge's bashing of BP cannot continue forever and there must be an end in sight.. Combined with an eventual turnaround in the oil price...and the easing of the Eastern European / Russian tensions.. Yazz's statments has to be true...but when...?
(For those who dont know that song.. look it up. :-))
Agreed that the buy back period has ended, however a recent statement is along the lines of there are plenty of selling and buy opportunities out there. It may be that the period is convenient pause to perhaps go on a funded spending spree to purchase. looking at other oilers on this forum there could possibly be take over bids in the near future and BP would normally be in the game
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