Nothing wrong in selling to limit a loss or bank a small profit. I've been guilty in the past of not doing that!
Coupled with your observations, the recent low was no lower than that seen in December plus the recent high in January was higher than previous peaks. So my simplistic view that for now we're still in a general upturn in the sp, so 520 would be perfect.
Having sold out 2 days ago at 448p (the impatient trader instincts in me) I am now having to reconsider. My chart set up is here ... https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/w7HvTZqv/ MACD crossover has been rather consistent for BP - look at the green arrows on the chart. so if i buy in now 451p and target price of 520p upside potential 15% trade. i do think its its finding its base price right now. Borgy
I'm staying with BP for the next few days. Still a general up trend in the SP. I'm gambling on a slow upturn in the next few days which will confirm we're still in a general uptrend. Couple that with the steady increase in oil price and all looks good here.
Hey picket hope all is well mate. I am not posting on VOD board as there are some who quite unecessarily rude. I noticed the Director buys and always a good sign. Glen doing well for and long may it continue. Strangely the economy as a whole seems to be doing well. Brexit news in march will be the highlight.
BP is holding strong today. Rest day for me tomorrow so hopefully no massive movements in VOD or BP. Have a lovely weekend mate and will catch up next week.
Hi Nims , looks like director agrees with you BP Directors Deals (BP.)
Nils Smedegaard Andersen Non-Executive Director 20/02/2017 Buy Price Amount Holding 446.23 GBX 30,000 104,290 Hope bp flys for you, I'm sticking with Glen at moment, I'll catch you on here for a catch up from now on, couple of zoomers on vod at moment no time to be dealing with them ATB
Thanks JMO. Lol that formula came from some hard learning. What started out as lucky trades back in the day and following some dodgy brokers tips made me a bit of money, but I mistook those for skill, and lost a lot of money. I then watched a YouTube video on intelligent investing and read the intelligent investor edition 6, read up on Woodford, Schaffer and a dodgy technical analyst called Zak Mir and started to build a formula, started with small trades backend of 2015 and finalised this model early 2016, tested on a few small stocks see my post last march on tristel board and then moved on to big boys, glen, Barc, Rps etc... 2016 was a good year, 2017 started well and if BP does what I hope it will then I am moving in the right direction. I ain't gonna share the formula but you're a smart guy so I'm sure you'll create you're own successful model.
Now that's better... more detail in what you say. But still the main strategy which is your formula is not detailed here. But still from that reply... the majority of what you said shows you're not just a random speculator. At the risk of being labled egotistical by Picket... you're on my pay attention to this dude list. haha
Its fair enough you asking for reasons for jumping in, however before I go into detail, I want to make clear is these are numbers I use and no way does it mean people on this site should use them and justify their entry as what I do is not a verified format by experts. Also I am only going to share a snippet of info as many can get this, the conspiracy theorist in me does not want to share how I calculate price ranges. First thing I look for is: 1) Is the company profit making and will they make a profit (BP made £172m last year on annual report net, this gives me an actual EPS of 507.01, thats crazy high but as always I explain I am very risk averse) 2) I look at balance sheet and potential growth, one thing to note in a challenging market where oil price is low and many impairment charges BP have £23bn in cash. How many people or companies do you know hold so much cash, as I mentioned a few cuts of projects and reduction in CAPEX will mean they will have more cash to burn long term. Roneft for me is the main risk in BP but I am confident thats priced in the SP. Any way Book value per share for BP really good at 0.901, even young buffet would be proud of that. 3) Graham score, unfortunately this is well above what I like at 101.35. Graham liked a score of 25, however I don't believe that is right in this day and age as there are many in aim at 25 score, I have figured out what is right for the current market in the 21st century, but I will let you all figure out what is a good score. Now one thing many will say is BP sp at 101 score means it's expensive and I would agree. However BP hit 101 cos they made £172m profit from a £4bn loss last year, as profitability will be higher this year when Brent Rebounds (these are assumptions) the graham score will be in line with RDSA and EXXON. 4) Debt, BP is highly geared 27%, but their target is 27%-30% as this is a huge company with strong cash not an issue, if this was TLW then yes worry. 5) I calculate a 10yr RSI and that puts BP at 20, so anyway BP will have to get to 70 RSI. If BP SP drops from here by 8% then yes I need to be out as that signals further drop to new resistant levels. Which means get out, and if fundamentals are right buy back cheaper. Also you can put in other companies to recover. One mistake people make is hold on to losses to. point they never recoup 6) There is also a secret formula I have created but I will not share - sorry guys, the hedge fund guys will have to pay me billions for it, but so far so good. It could be sheer luck, but I have tested on a few stocks outside FTSE 100, I don't know if I mentioned AMS and RPS, I posted on both shares when they were at £1.60 last year, lol I sell early but the growth was crazy. I also tested on AIM GETECH and so far nothing has shown the formula does not work. But it can't predict worldly craziness like Trump / Brexit etc... GLA in BP. Also Picket Thanks, lol I lied SBRY was the outlier :)
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