Thanks JMO. Lol that formula came from some hard learning. What started out as lucky trades back in the day and following some dodgy brokers tips made me a bit of money, but I mistook those for skill, and lost a lot of money. I then watched a YouTube video on intelligent investing and read the intelligent investor edition 6, read up on Woodford, Schaffer and a dodgy technical analyst called Zak Mir and started to build a formula, started with small trades backend of 2015 and finalised this model early 2016, tested on a few small stocks see my post last march on tristel board and then moved on to big boys, glen, Barc, Rps etc... 2016 was a good year, 2017 started well and if BP does what I hope it will then I am moving in the right direction. I ain't gonna share the formula but you're a smart guy so I'm sure you'll create you're own successful model.
Now that's better... more detail in what you say. But still the main strategy which is your formula is not detailed here. But still from that reply... the majority of what you said shows you're not just a random speculator. At the risk of being labled egotistical by Picket... you're on my pay attention to this dude list. haha
Its fair enough you asking for reasons for jumping in, however before I go into detail, I want to make clear is these are numbers I use and no way does it mean people on this site should use them and justify their entry as what I do is not a verified format by experts. Also I am only going to share a snippet of info as many can get this, the conspiracy theorist in me does not want to share how I calculate price ranges. First thing I look for is: 1) Is the company profit making and will they make a profit (BP made £172m last year on annual report net, this gives me an actual EPS of 507.01, thats crazy high but as always I explain I am very risk averse) 2) I look at balance sheet and potential growth, one thing to note in a challenging market where oil price is low and many impairment charges BP have £23bn in cash. How many people or companies do you know hold so much cash, as I mentioned a few cuts of projects and reduction in CAPEX will mean they will have more cash to burn long term. Roneft for me is the main risk in BP but I am confident thats priced in the SP. Any way Book value per share for BP really good at 0.901, even young buffet would be proud of that. 3) Graham score, unfortunately this is well above what I like at 101.35. Graham liked a score of 25, however I don't believe that is right in this day and age as there are many in aim at 25 score, I have figured out what is right for the current market in the 21st century, but I will let you all figure out what is a good score. Now one thing many will say is BP sp at 101 score means it's expensive and I would agree. However BP hit 101 cos they made £172m profit from a £4bn loss last year, as profitability will be higher this year when Brent Rebounds (these are assumptions) the graham score will be in line with RDSA and EXXON. 4) Debt, BP is highly geared 27%, but their target is 27%-30% as this is a huge company with strong cash not an issue, if this was TLW then yes worry. 5) I calculate a 10yr RSI and that puts BP at 20, so anyway BP will have to get to 70 RSI. If BP SP drops from here by 8% then yes I need to be out as that signals further drop to new resistant levels. Which means get out, and if fundamentals are right buy back cheaper. Also you can put in other companies to recover. One mistake people make is hold on to losses to. point they never recoup 6) There is also a secret formula I have created but I will not share - sorry guys, the hedge fund guys will have to pay me billions for it, but so far so good. It could be sheer luck, but I have tested on a few stocks outside FTSE 100, I don't know if I mentioned AMS and RPS, I posted on both shares when they were at £1.60 last year, lol I sell early but the growth was crazy. I also tested on AIM GETECH and so far nothing has shown the formula does not work. But it can't predict worldly craziness like Trump / Brexit etc... GLA in BP. Also Picket Thanks, lol I lied SBRY was the outlier :)
Another way to exit is when the macd simply crosses zero again. Often if a stock had been recently oversold on the daily RSI chart, even that results is in a big profit percentage wise. Go on TradingView.com sign up for a free account and start studying what I just told you... guarantee you will see the majority of stocks in this scenario end up producing a nice return.
He mentioned RSI and MACD... and all those stocks you mentioned had been oversold and ended up with a positive MACD too. So from that I can deduce he's waiting on stocks going under 30 on the RSI and then buying as the MACD turns positive. This is a simple strategy... and works a hell of a lot. In fact I used it for months. If he's using that... this alone would produce good results most of the time.
Take ABF for example, the RSI was recently oversold on the daily chart... the MACD recently turned positive too. This is a decent simple strategy. And even better strategy is to wait on the MACD "Blue line" crossing the Zero and then go long... plot the 12 and 26 EMA on the main price box... you will notice when the MACD blue line crosses the zero... the 12/26 EMA also crosses above.
This is when the trend is more likely to be stronger, confidence has returned to the stock... often the rise will be quicker with less hesitation when this happens. To be clear not all the time, sometimes the price if's already rallied hard and caused the MACD to cross the 0 quickly... it can pull back and even test the red line on the main price box (26 EMA), sometimes the trend won't even continue.... but more often than not it gives a decent rise and quicker than that it took to get to the zero on the MACD. Make sense?
Exiting is then up to you... either exit when the MACD crosses negative and then only renter if it turns positive when it's "above zero",,, or just ditch the stock and look for the next setup like this... there's hundreds of mid and large caps to do it on.
5% max allocation of your pot to each trade... rinse and repeat. Literally only learned this improved strategy the last few days... but studying the charts it seems to be extremely good. There's loads of strategies and others I use... but I'm trying to switch my trading to longer term for less screen time...
He's explained it a couple of times to be people who can't get their head round it, it's his own formula & not just conventional charting, he's not just going oh this share will rise, this share is going to fall, he gives buy in price to buy at when it's nearly there & on same post he gives exit price, as he says he doesn't day trade & I've not seen him wrong yet , I don't know what else I can tell you mate ATB
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