My thinking was the long termers are generally the guys with the higher average so cashing in at 5p - 8p makes little sense for them so they will be looking to get as close to the the magical 20p as they can.
With regard to that last post I think that's a pretty good assessment. I also agree on the pi's cashing in around that point although some of the guys have averages that may force them to hold longer for any worthwhile gains after such a long wait. Like you say time will tell the problem is nobody knows any kind of timeframe at the moment and that's the really frustrating part along with the complete lack of information on the hold up.
If and when we do get approval I expect a short sharp rise in SP most likely to around 5p and then it will level out to around 4p until processing begins which will mean profit will drive the SP to the higher levels we expect. A lot of pi's will cash in at 5p and the long termers will continue to chase the BMR dream. I could be wrong and time will tell. :-)
Surely the SP will rise steadily (post ZEMA news) depending on how quickly BMR get up to speed, and what they start producing and how much. Obviously copper first, but how soon after Kabwe start up do the other mines come out to play. Based on volumes / quantities that are known, (or published) I'm still thinking mid teens is achievable....
Also talk is that the miners are coming out of a 3 year bear Market prices on the rise as demand rises from china,USA and India. Look at the price rise of Zinc and Lead. The big boys will benefit first then that will filter down to the junior miners and BMR is set to become a medium size miner when approval comes. Double figures for me should be easy.Look what happened in the last bull run for juniors 2000% price rises were common. Sentiment can change round very quickly all we need is approval and we are off.
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