They did the stess tests on all the good banks because they knew bank of ireland would pass and ignored the poor banks so as previous posts mentioned it looks rather bad which i totally agree .Then brexit which if run again would be 80 /20 remain in my opinion . Then the minority goverment question which also has uncertainities.. So i think the best solution and my solution is to just watch with fun the turmoil etc, and know in the long run this will turn really good and we will have our swinging sixties decade again ,please god stay healthy to see it! and everyone remember your health is your wealth
Like it or not its only fair to assume that the market will react with a drop in the sp with the stress test results... it's not exactly going to do it any good! Not even the best politician could put a good spin one this one!
This share has suffered enough! 14/15 is just crazy and single digits... Seriously what is everyone smoking. Banks gapped down after Brexit and sooner or later that gap will be filled. Onwards and upwards for BKIR & AIB. Stress tests didn't include any Greek banks or Portuguese!
Well it seems that a drop in the sp range is almost inevitable but realistically how low will this go.... 14... 12?? Or will we all have to eat a slice of Leamyk's humble pie if it goes single digits? Personally I felt 14 -15 was always a possibility and that was my reentry price but now I'm thinking that might be a little overpriced? Anyone else like to hazard a guess?
is the fact that the rates charged by bank of ireland are twice that of what german , french and dutch etc banks charge not relevant when assessing the situation regarding irish banks ? , scope for profit is much bigger in this market and near 0% ECB rates allow bkir to borrow for nothing , its not like they lend out at nothing though
the irish banking landscape is very different to mainland europe and there is no sigh of foreign banks entering to competition is thin on the ground
So the ECB (or an arm off) tests the banks to make sure they are healthy. Yet the biggest cause of banks not been able to make money to improve their profits and boost reserves in negative bond yields and negative rates all as a direct result of ECB policy. Would Mario not be much better buy bundles of non preforming loans for cash much as Nama did?
Why not test all EU banks. If Portugal and Greece were tested Boi might not be so far down the table and less attention would now be on them as they might well be to the average.
This is a quote from him yesterday in answer to a question about the dividend
"The visibility we had is a little bit more cloudy than what it was in early spring. We're not taking it off the table."
At that stage I was grasping at straws in regards to a small pay out but it was looking less likely after the results.
Why, when most though it was no chance did he want to keep the possibility on the table? He had the opportunity to blame brexit and say 2017 was a more likely time frame.
Did he know about the stress test resutls at that stage? He must have. AIB had a statement out in an hour after the results. They seem to know in advance as did the Italian bank.
BoI did pass the test so to speak and would survive the scenario but the ECB is unlikely to allow a dividend to be paid now anyway, or so you would think. They seem to be allowing AIB repay the government 1.6billion ???
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