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Leading commentator Josh Mahony from IG - are we seeing a US$ revaluation? Watch here

Leading commentator Josh Mahony from IG - are we seeing a US$ revaluation?


Berkeley Group Share Chat (BKG)



Share Price: 3,701.00Bid: 3,698.00Ask: 3,701.00Change: 7.00 (+0.19%)Riser - Berkeley Gp.hld
Spread: 3.00Spread as %: 0.08%Open: 3,708.00High: 3,754.00Low: 3,686.00Yesterday’s Close: 3,694.00


Share Discussion for Berkeley Group


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Liberalman
Posts: 1,569
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,699.00
RE: Looks like a 50p dividend
Wed 12:07
Thanks rich... at least it'll put Adam out of his misery. Considering I'm on a 50% gain on this one since buying almost exactly a year ago, I'm not too worried about divi level or buybacks (which have worked out well for the Company - Adam pl note).
 
richred_uk
Posts: 155
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,698.00
RE: Looks like a 50p dividend
Wed 11:59
A post of ADVFN says announcement tomorrow, but I can't confirm that on the investor relations section of the website. That does say that the record date for the dividend will be 25th August (on the Financial Diary Tab), so ex-div 24/8 and announcement tomorrow would seem to fit that timetable. HTH
Liberalman
Posts: 1,569
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,698.00
RE: Looks like a 50p dividend
Wed 11:49
Could anyone please advise me when the ex div date and divi amount will be announced? Thanks.
LordAdam
Posts: 443
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,546.00
Looks like a 50p dividend
Fri 10:33
Today's RNS puts the dividend down at 55.1p ... looks to me like the board are aiming to spend half the dividend on the buy back. So my pessimistic estimate of a 50% buy back policy seems to being coming true.

That's costing us poor people 3.1% per year not just this year but for every subsequent year, ie you pay 3.1% this year, and next year and so on ... *even if they stop* buying the things back! That's the power of compounding -- losses up front add up to mega losses over the years.

Mike
LordAdam
Posts: 443
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,579.00
RE: 40% dividend cut
7 Aug '17
Thanks for the update on the dates for the dividend announcement.

I think you hit the nail on the head when you said "I'm sure the gain isn't solely down to the buy backs" ... that's the real question, how much of the gain _is_ due to the buy back? and how much is due to Mr. Market, Brexit and the election etc.?

There's no real answer to that one, but there is a real answer to the following question "How much does the share price have to grow to compensate for a 50% buy back policy?" It's possible to analyze that precisely in a spreadsheet.

Two simple scenarios ... no buy-back, £2 dividend per year completely reinvested ... vs ... dividend of £1 reinvested plus annual growth generated by the £1 buy-back. So what growth rate do you need to compensate for the buy-back?

The answer is 3.1% ... you need a relentless 3.1% growth in the share price to compensate for the buy-back. Put another way, the buy-back takes 3.1% straight off the top of whatever you get and on a level share price that's a real loss of 3.1% when compared to the level dividend.

I'm not so sure that BKG can guarantee outperforming the market by 3.1% every year for the next 'n' years.

Mike
richred_uk
Posts: 155
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,555.00
RE: 40% dividend cut
7 Aug '17
The change in dates was announced in the half-year report 2/12/16 when they announced that the £10 per share would be split between dividends and buy backs:

"In February and August each year, the Company will announce the dividend to be paid at the end of March and September, respectively. This will be calculated as the absolute value amount to be delivered in the six months (£138.8 million based on the current shares in issue), less the cost of any share buy-backs undertaken in the relevant period. Going forward each subsequent relevant period begins on the date of announcement of the dividend for the previous relevant period."

Just for reference, the SP was £27.60 at the end of 2/12/16 when they announced the buy back and about £35.50 today - a gain of roughly £8.00 a share versus a loss to date of roughly £0.55/ share in dividends (and a gain of about £0.02/ share for each of the future dividends if there were no more buy backs). I'm sure the gain isn't solely down to the buy backs, but overall I can't say I'm unhappy with the performance.
LordAdam
Posts: 443
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,568.00
40% dividend cut
7 Aug '17
With today's RNS the dividend is down to 60.9p ... that's very nearly a 40% cut on the 100p that they promised it would be when they talked about returning £10 per share to holders.

Does anyone know why this year the dividend is being announced on 17 August when it was 15 June last year ... two months later?

Mike
LordAdam
Posts: 443
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,506.00
RE: Press Comment...
2 Aug '17
Yep, with a pay cheque of over £500,000 a week they are using the dividend that they promised us to artificially increase the EPS so that they can be sure of getting their bonus.

At the last time of reckoning the dividend had been cut to 61.5p from the 100p that it should have been. So when you get your dividend, remember that it should have been more than 50% bigger.

And don't forget that what you've lost isn't being used to pay the bonus, it's being spent on insurance to help guarantee it ... the bonus comes out of other company funds -- double whammy.

Mike

Mike
Liberalman
Posts: 1,569
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,517.00
Press Comment...
2 Aug '17
LordAdam
Posts: 443
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,417.00
If my diary is correct ...
22 Jul '17
If my diary is correct then we should be having an announcement this week about the upcoming dividend etc.

By my calculations the 100p will have been reduced to 62.47p assuming that there are no further buy backs between now and the announcement. That's a hell of a reduction in income stream to 4% from the headline 6% that I was promised when I bought my shares.

We shall see what the board have to say about their intentions ... but from my perspective they don't look good.

Mike




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