I was being ironic, fleccy, you've made your views crystal clear! Neither you or I know in truth...there are plenty of articles in 2014 and 2015 saying this will be THE year. But it wasn't - maybe it will fall significantly in 2016, and maybe not. Have you read any of Harry Dent's work, he is certainly in your camp.
Markets are largely about psychology, sentiment and most of all, timing, but there's plenty of money to be made even in falling markets as nothing ever happens in a straight line! ATB, Scfc.
30% at least off the S&P 500 and everything else to follow. FTSE probably by less than the S&P, but still significant. I don't expect it will happen all at once, but I firmly believe it's overdue. The FTSE is nowhere near the 7000 it reached in April/May due to being very commodities heavy. Commodities have gone down the toilet, the US dollar will rise on the back of FED hikes and US earnings are struggling. It's not a case of if things are going South, it's a case of when. It's not hard to see the cracks, they're in plain sight, what I find strange is that others don't see the same cracks. I've given my opinion Scfc, what do you think is going to happen next year? Do you think the markets are going to resume this Bull Run they've been in for the last 6 years? What's the most likely scenario going forward? I realise you disagree with my hypothesis and i'm open to other people reasoned arguments. Convince me that i'm wrong.
I have a prediction, the S&P 500 has broken through 2100 again, pressure's building up in the bubble. If things don't go south this month they will in January. My money would be on this month if something happens to hit sentiment. How's that for Doom and Gloom lol
I am informed that if the FED raises rates this month, financials should benefit , as it provides them with greater margins, so maybe that will help. The only other encouragement I can think of is Q4's divi which is always the largest at 3.5p. What happens after that of course, is anyone's guess . very happy with today's increase and notice the ADR's are following suit. GLA
I have to say, the way things are shaping up I'm beginning to think it'll be a Christmas for the bulls. I'm not confident enough to jump in though. I think there's a lot of hidden fragility in the markets and it wont take much to move things South. The markets have been a lot more resilient than I thought they'd be. I'm still of the opinion that the US is where the problems lie and they will drop, dragging all others behind them. The S&P500 earnings are lower and the markets just shrug it off. http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_11.27.15
"98% of the S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter earnings, profits contracted 1.7%"
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