AVN is in the middle of an M&A deal. Releasing results would likely create big upside or downside in the stock price. My guess is that they will try to combine the trading update with the announcement on M&A deal or whichever alternative may come in place of that. Doesn't imply that the trading update would be weak or bad though: last thing you want to happen in a public to private process is that the market goes crazy about a potential deal t And that the share price runs away from you to a level that is higher than what the bidder can afford to pay, or is willing to pay. So: bundle the trading update with the announcement of the deal or equity injection. I personally am inclined to believe that the trading update is ok based on the combination of the latest numbers we got on recurring core revenue growth, capacity utilization, guidance for recurring revenue growth (when in an M&A process your guidance numbers are scrutinised to the extreme so I don't think that AVN is egging it on when guiding for 35-40% recurring core revenue growth). I may be wrong, as there is a lot that we don't know (has "current trading" continued to perform and is growth coming through as guided, to what extent are challenging African macroeconomics and global commodity prices and very volatile FX moves especially in emerging economies affecting AVN etc) , but I still believe that we are more likely than not going to see a good outcome.
True WhiteBlue, not sure if its the case with other II's though?.. Lots of folk wanting to see AVN fail,, and thats down to losing on their investment.. must say though the BOD have been a little dubious on previous results etc as it was only last May time that things were still looking good then all of a sudden a bomb shell hit...
Not sure how this will pan out (no one on here is!!) but at current levels it may be a bargain,,,,,MAY!!
i cannot help but notice that the BOD is not buying any shares, unless they are putting them in the names of their grandchildren and pets. Does this not tell us something is amiss?
I dumped this share and piled into SXX which is quite cheap at the moment and seems to be fully funded. i would advise you to do the same before the fire sale takes place.
Though I still have an irrational unhealthy interest in this share, having felt that something badly went wrong in the over expansion field, which was too ambitious and hasty. They jumped into deep water while still learning to swim.
i still feel that the AIM market is a total disaster while bankrupt stocks are still permitted to continue in a half- life state.
The BoD has not issued an RNS saying that AVN is not operating under Rule 2.6 of the UK Takeover Code anymore. So, that means that the M&A process is continuing. Given that we are 5 months far, it must be quite likely that they are doing final negotiations while potentially also doing some outstanding confirmatory due diligence, and when that is done, do the preparations for a merger or for a public to private takeover process.
Note also that the sale process of ABS by Permira started at about the same moment as the AVN process and nothing has been announced yet there i think. Personally, i would like to see a merger between AVN and ABS with AVN's listing surviving the (reverse) merger: AVN would provide the growth engine, ABS would provide the balance sheet and cash flow stability.
I would also hope that the parallel processes to fix the cash flow situation on a standalone basis are "just one click of a button away" and that they are holding off from executing that until the M&A route concludes. Note that half a year ago the situation was: need USD 120m, to be funded 70m with a credit facility from an export/import agency (UK?), and 50m from new equity. The situation now almost half a year later i hope is as follows: 50m cash flowback from working capital normalisation, 28m cash saving from the pikisation of the coupon (increasing gross debt by 28m but leaving net debt unchanged as there was no cash payment for the coupon), started the 56m announced cuts in costs and capex (to be achieved over 3 years), 6 months of additional growth (guided annual 35-40%) so hopefully AVN sales are now at least 15% higher than when the liquidity issue and sale process were announced 5 months ago. Take all that together and it would hopefully allow for that USD 70m credit line to be available, which should get AVN out of trouble.
That's all assuming no "blue sky" Facebook upside, but also assuming that the business has continued to develop the way it has over the past 12 to 18 months.
One further thought. Back in May AVN won a $29M contract from EE to provide backhaul. The contract was said to be multiyear and with the possibility of being increased to double the initial capacity. I have no idea what the 2017, 2018 etc revenues were anticipated to be but spread over three years they could amount to £58M. On top of that there are other substantial wins. We know that one or more of the customers has effectively imposed longer pay periods. But what if AVN has been able to expand the business they do with prompt payers and throttle back on the slow payers? Is it possible that the reason for the delay is that they are actually very close to digging themselves out of the hole? Clearly they have been cutting costs where possible so perhaps the situation is not quite so unmanageable as initially thought?
sweepydog2 - looking at this practically you could assume a number of current scenario's...
1. Still DD being carried out - however it has been some time now ?..and the Sep RNS stated a number of interested parties. Would have thought any final and best offers be submitted by now (if any). On a positive note these things can take time and dotting the i's crossing the t's would be time consuming..., on a negative note why then the SP drifting if other parties are still in discussions?....the only explanation for this is the poor demand for shares and 2 ii's reducing..or...the mm's have wind!!. not sure though?..
2. If no offers or investment, then the BOD will be looking at alternative funding, however this shoud surely be RNS'd
3. Slow SP decline could suggest a discounted placing being lined up,, however could also be the 2 II's selling into the market. There's no great demand therefore the SP will continue to slip until an RNS one way or other.
4. Large II's have held which is a good sign however they are letting the SP slip which is a concern.
Really an update for II's, PI's and the market in general would be welcome from the BOD...you cant say one is not over due.
To take a view I think 4 questions need to be answered: 1) If AVN cannot be rescued why have the Chairman and the other non-execs stayed in place and the exercise have been so prolonged? Others have pointed out that all failed deals this year have occurred within 3.5 months of the announcement. This has been going on for 5 months. 2) Why have the bulk of the IIs stuck with their shareholdings? Only two of the smaller ones have been regular sellers. 3) Why did MAST undertake a major reorganisation if they did not have a plan in mind that would solve the cashflow issue? 4) (A question I have asked before but have never got an answer from the bears) Why did the ESA sign up AVN for ECO when they knew there was a major issue that could take the company down? A failure would be disruptive for the ECO programme and would cause reputational damage to ESA itself. They must have seen unequivocal, watertight evidence that AVN would survive as a going concern.
So the issue is not whether AVN has a future but what form it will take.
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