If this goes sub £2 we could be in for another shorters feeding frenzy, with the bottom god knows where. I agree with many posters on here that the business model is sound, but since when have the MM's let the truth get in the way of a good payday? The regulators should have had the cojones to make shorting illegal when it was mooted last year, after all what does it do for the markets except make some thoroughly obnoxious city wideboys an undeserved fortune.
I have been giving some thought to the impact on the flow of news of Avanti's current method of signing up customers. Historically they were looking to sign big contracts and these were announced by means of RNS. But customers proved reluctant to sign as they thought this increased their risk if they had got their estimates of the size of the market or timing of sales wrong. So Avanti changed to contracts that can be increased incrementally. We are now seeing the effects of this in the growth of core customer business of which we get quarterly updates. But the consequence is that we can now expect news of growth by RNS only for new substantial customers - presumably initial contracts worth say $6M or more. A contract worth $6M which is growing at 50% a year would not show on the radar at all (and there are I think quite a number of these).
So we should expect to see a reduction in the number of RNS announcements made annually but by way of compensation the quarterly reports will give details of the incremental growth of the top 20 customers though it will be in aggregate and not broken down specifically.
Thanks for posting this. I was particularly interested in the research into Winnifrith by Financial Trolls and the relationships between him, the Caukwell's, Zak Mir, Matt Earl and Lucien Miers. What a bunch of con artists!
The impression I got from discussions both before and after the formal part of the AGM was that given time the shares will rise to levels well above the current price. It appears that Avanti have superior products which those who are in the market for the capacity of its satellites, recognise. Africa is a huge market and Avanti is increasingly winning contracts there. Hylas4 due to launch in February 2017 has already had some of capacity presold. A key issue however is the ability of income to cover costs during an interim period during which business picks up momentum. Another interesting night was that in general the Company isn't concerned about the possibility of a British exit from the EU.
I left the meeting feeling that the shares are a buy at current levels.
He seemed likely to double his money if the price dropped from $2 to $1 , and he was extremely unlucky that it rose to $16 out of hours. If only we had a multi-billionaire who could shaft our shorters! But we don't help ourselves by selling on any sort of drop or a decent rise. We invite professional shorters in and then give them hospitality. I'd rather hospitalise them by getting everyone to hold and buy enough to counter their sells and push the price up. 16 fold would be a dream? A doubling would be nearer sensible.
Instead, we have to wait for that moment when the world realises there is an achievable/profitable market out there for what Avanti supplies and they cannot afford to risk missing the boat. I wonder whether the pending Hylas #3 and #4 works against us - so our potential customers can put off their decision until tomorrow? Advanced orders reduces the supply/demand - now I twig why Avanti make so much of them?
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