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Aukett Fitzroy Robinson Share Chat (AUK)



Share Price: 2.125Bid: 1.75Ask: 2.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Aukett Swanke
Spread: 0.75Spread as %: 42.86%Open: 2.125High: 2.125Low: 2.125Yesterday’s Close: 2.125


Share Discussion for Aukett Fitzroy Robinson


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bear17
Posts: 4
Observation
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:2.25
AUK share trade at 2p
5 Sep '17
As AUK Year End approaches, shares have traded down to the 2p level as anticipated.

Considering the half year results issued earlier, it would appear that without the ‘Windfall Gain’ listed within page 13 of the half year statement relating to ‘Non Recurring Income’ of 0.65m [Fair value gain on the reduction of deferred consideration + Gain recognised on acquisition settlement], the true loss for the half year would have blown out to c.1.0m.

Without a significant turn around in income in the second half, a sizeable loss might be the outcome for the second half, with the knock effect of wiping out all ‘net funds’. AUK will then be relying on bank borrowings.

More troubling is the fact that AUK are reporting to be holding 400 employees, with an annualised net fee income [excl.consultants] of only c.16m pa, representing a KPI of 40k/staff. The two highest paid employees appear to be accountants, and they are at c.200k/year!

Fosters + Partners, the main UK competitor, are delivering 225m revenue with 1265 staff, representing a KPI of 178k/staff, 4.4x better than AUK!! Fosters have their 10 architectural directors earning on average 600k/year, before the distribution of EBITBA of 35.5m to shareholders.

Most other UK Architectural practices are in constant profit with Chapman Taylor at 8% and Grimshaw at 6%. These companies are run by architects! Directors salaries are also much, much higher!

Dividends will not emerge from AUK until they start clearing the debt and start delivering regular 10-15% profit margins. Currently they are in a potential substantial loss position, unless revenue increases fast. Cutting the cost base does not seem to be on the agenda, as they are constantly stating they are ‘protecting the core’? Sounds like the ‘core’ needs to be drastically reduced to 90 FTE to match the declining revenue stream and Fosters KPI of 178k/staff.

If this full year loss outcome emerges, and 'net funds' exhausted, I expect the share price to be below 2p, and threaten multi year lows. If AUK does not reduce their headcount below the revenue base, an even worse outcome might follow…..
 
bear17
Posts: 4
Observation
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:2.50
Big Loss for AUK
20 Jun '17
Aukett S****e (LON:AUK)

Bear: Target 2.0p or lower. Multi Year Low

“Interim results
For the six months ended 31 March 2017

Aukett S****e Group Plc, the international practice of architects and interior design specialists and engineers, is pleased to announce its interim results for the six month period ended 31 March 2017.

Highlights
• Revenues down 9% at £9.1m
• Net cash at £1.56m with net funds of £594k
• Loss before tax of £358k

Commenting on today's interim results announcement, CEO Nicholas Thompson said;

"All Group operations have worked hard to maintain revenues during the period although some markets have continued to weaken, resulting in decreased earnings. This coupled with some specific write downs offset by claim recoveries, has resulted in losses which has hampered the development of our three hub structure. We are, however, pleased to report that we have maintained our liquidity strength."
Overall we currently foresee a loss situation for the year pending a return to positive results for our Group.”

As FTSE sets multi year highs, AUK approaching multi year lows

UK Revenue Collapses
Significant Losses in UK & Europe
£473k Loss, only lessened by a share of JV profit
Net Cash dropping fast: £594k [was £1.9m 18 months ago, losing c.£450k every 6 months]
£1.0m of Bank Debt to support cash flow deleted from UAE purchases.

UK GDP set to drop to 1.5% over the next two years. Service Sector is in sharp decline in last 3 months. 50% of AUK Group Income from UK, dropping from 65% in 2016: now heavily constrained by Brexit, UK Political Uncertainty, and UK Terrorist Attacks. Volatile National UK Mood.

International operations spread across volatile, challenging geographies, with low fees, and bad debt provisions, incl. Middle East, Russia & Turkey. 45% of AUK Group Income from UAE, now constrained in UAE by over supply of office accommodation, and major retail and hospitality schemes coming on stream. Signature Architects taking the quality projects. Fosters + Partners [F+P] opened Dubai Office in 2017: a substantial high quality signature competitor. F+P £57m Middle East Fees in 2016.

AUK has chased typically low margin design work with low fees and small margins
Results continue to be very poor
Poor Earnings per FTE @ £83k in 2016 [£18.4/220 FTE]; 2017 looks even worse!
Ongoing Poor/No Profitability compared with other Architects, eg. Foster+Partners at 27- 30% profit in 2016.
AUK had one client who delivered 20% of UK workload in 2016 [£2.25m] – this may not be repeatable in the years ahead, requiring more projects to fill this gap. 30% decline year on year decline in UK.

Serial history of disappointing, lackluster, and lumpy trading
CEO gifting shares to family as presents
Micro-cap: very, very low share trading
Risk of delisting: why do AUK bother?
Chance of Delin
bear17
Posts: 4
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:2.375
AUK Loss for Half Year: Shares Dive
12 May '17
……….Just as I forecast on 12 January 2017

Net Funds @ 600k, sinking fast. Cash is king, and it is sinking…

Losses everywhere: UK, UAE, Germany, Turkey

350k outgoings per week, leaves AUK with Net Funds of less than 2 weeks outgoings.

No mention of projected full year numbers, but with Brexit in full swing, AUK’s main source of revenue from the UK [65% of group income] will be under considerable strain.

UAE High End Office rentals forecast to fall as current office projects are being completed in 2017. Hard to see where the normal commercial AUK work will come from in the UAE. Business Bay just completed, and the other large projects in Abu Dhabi already have signature architects appointed. In retail, Mall of the World and Yas Island Development architects already in position. Large hotel projects Al Habtoor City, Jewel of the Creek, Paramount and Viceroy also already have architects engaged. AUK up against world class signature architects…..will they be able to attract clients?

Predictions of a Loss for Full Year, Net Cash back to zero, More Staff Reduction costs to come?

AUK = Overstaffed, Poor Fee Levels, Unproductive, Poor Earnings/Head.

Far too uncertain to invest in this one…..
threeputt
Posts: 3,070
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.875
...
11 May '17
Looks like I was right to exit this when I did by the looks, albeit somewhat late
good luck to remaining holders
Thechukkers
Posts: 9,410
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3.125
...
22 Mar '17
back in 2013 the group made half in revenues what they make now, yet the share price has tumbled to the same level. nothing is certain, removing of dividends is obviously not a good sign, but i think it has good potential on this level
TruroTrader
Posts: 499
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3.25
RE: AUK 2016 Results
18 Feb '17
Possibly a little harsh bear.

If It's true that lots of shares are held by older directors and retired directors then this is good. I can sell my shares at a profit and I've not been here long.

It therefore follows that older shareholders are also in profit and consequentially the longer they hold the better they think it will be. These Directors possibly know more about future prospects than your or I combined!!.
bear17
Posts: 4
Observation
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:3.125
AUK 2016 Results
12 Jan '17
In 2016, UK remained the main income source with 65% of the groups income, despite all the ‘international’ hype. The UK income was dropping fast, and so was the UK profit. Q1 2017 looks to be a loss it would seem. Middle East & Europe was only 35% of the pot in 2016, but combined, contributed zero profit. CEO suggests “we do not expect any contribution in profit terms from the UK until the second half.” Basically they have no idea what the second half will look like, as they will have to see what new instructions land: they should have said so! With a Hard Brexit a near-certainty, what Developers will be progressing projects without Pre-Lets: projects going to the construction phase may dry up. It is clear that the CEO is giving clear signals that profits in the UK will be very, very difficult to maintain and they want to conserve cash. [eg. no div]. 260k pa loan repayment over the next five years paid on an architectural practice in the Middle East making little or no profit! Not sure: Where do they get the cash to repay the debt when they are potentially making no profit??? With only 800k in cash, and 350k per week outgoings, it does not take a genius to see that things may get bleak – very quickly. I predict losses 2017, increased bank borrowings, more UK staff reductions – they need to get well below 120 in the UK to match other architects earnings/head. [>100-125k/head] AUK only showing 4% profit, when many others are currently at 25-30%.....AUK must be overstaffed and must be under bidding, and generally very unproductive compared to their peers. Junior Fee Earners own little or no stock. Lots of shares held by 60+ year old Directors soon to retire or retired former directors holding stock with no one to sell to, it would seem?.....Incentive to next generation simply not there……Model Broke….. Bear…… Strong Sell
threeputt
Posts: 3,070
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3.125
RE: Harsh
12 Jan '17
not so sure, blaming Brexit when it hasn't hurt many others ?
removing the dividend ?
DrMaccers
Posts: 2,103
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3.125
Harsh
12 Jan '17
So on a PE of 6.8 with £1.8mill in cash? Hardly the worst results given it was over brexit. Silly drop and even more undervalued! Should bag from here
DrMaccers
Posts: 2,103
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3.50
Bit of interest
11 Jan '17
Bit of interest today pre results. Failure is priced in. Work out the PE on results and read the Outlook carefully. Very likely good value at this level.




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