Like it or not we are in business with Ecuador - Background & Intro - 1.In Ecuador, oil accounts for 50% of the country's export earnings and approx 40% of public sector revenues. Ecuador - smallest in the (OPEC) produced 556,kbopd 2014. Hydrocarbon resources are exclusively Owned by the State. Ecuador limits foreign investment in the sector. Foreign oil and natural gas companies are allowed to enter into service contracts that offer a fixed per-barrel fee for their exploration and production activities. 2. Ecuador's most productive oil blocks are located in the NorthEastern part of the country. Shushufindi and Auca are the country’s two most prolific fields (Close to OBA & Victor Hugo Ruales). Crude oil production increased sizably in 2004 shortly after Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) pipeline, which removed a chokepoint on heavy crude oil transportation in the country. However, production has leveled off as the result of natural decline, the lack of new project development, and operating difficulties at existing, mature oil fields. Ecuador exports roughly 70% of its O/put. 3.Pipelines Ecuador’s domestic pipeline infrastructure is old and limited.. Ecuador has two major oil pipeline systems. The older and more widely used is the Sistema Oleducto Trans-Ecuatoriano (SOTE), which was built in the early 1970s. The 310 mile, 400kbopd SOTE runs from Lago Agrio, Ecuador to the Balao oil terminal on the Pacific coast. SOTE was constructed to transport high-value LIGHT CRUDE OIL and throughput averages 355KBOPD 2012. Ecuador's second oil pipeline is the Oleducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP). The 300 mile, 450kbopd OCP flows mostly parallel to the route of the SOTE. The OCP began. 2003, and its doubled Ecuador's oil pipeline capacity. Approx 70% of the country's crude travels through SOTE, remainder transported through OCP. OCP is designed for Heavier Crude and Ecuador Heavy Oil fields are not yet in production, throughput averaged 137KBOPD in 2012 or 30%. Ecuador's state oil company Petroecuador shipped 74kbopd through the alternative SOTE pipeline, rather than the OCP line as originally planned. OCP charges $2/bbl but the government would have been given a preferential rate of $1.50-1.75/bbl. The SOTE pipeline cost is 30¢/bbl, but it would not separate the heavy crude from the light, as OCP would. Part 1 - done. GN Part 2-4 next 3 days. Hope this helps, there is a concluding purpose for this info IMO, there is an opportunity for AMER.. If no liki just filter it.
Daily Vol is quite high - there seems to be an agenda going on which excludes the Ordinary investor, perhaps when this phase cools off we might get back to business +7m today. GLA We seem to be bystanders in a game of holdings. GN
So Fxxxxing glad I'm in quite a bit here - I'm too frightened to stay in Microsoft word just in case - & I'm not going near any Excel graphs, AMER's 38second MAv looks like Sterling post Brexit, all sharp implements locked away and no warm bath. HNY GLA we need it. Peel Hunt WTF - J Arthur Rank.
Specialist subject Ecuador - El Oriente - Oil field production and pipeline gathering systems, every turn I get hit with the Chevron Fine, 11bn Oil spillage, - rare breeds and Amazon tribes, understandably and mega superficial rubbish. I am getting somewhere though - and that keeps including Canacol data. I am summarising a brief where I am surprised by obvious guess work conclusions - could be a total waste of time (the detailed Maps are Fxxking Atrocious)- but the thought of upgrading an aged Ecuadorian remote pipeline - where there is a larger SOTE choke point) got me thinking bigger picture. . I've tried Victor Hugo Ruales RODA and secondary pipelines to no avail. the research is probably totally rubbish but have enjoyed parts of it and maybe a small % may be of use. Post soon. GLA Better than Corrie. GN
BaysilHope, thanks for for your thoughtful and thought provoking comments.
I , for one small shareholder, did not know the estimated capacity of the Ecu RODA system.
On production, what probability would you assign to 7500-8500 Bopd? I assume the company will report on the 7200 below.
"The Company expects a production rate of 7,200 BOPD to be achieved during Q1 2017, assuming the resolution of social issues by central government during January and February 2017 as discussed below. On that basis, existing guidance of 7,500 - 8,500 BOPD for 2017 remains unchanged."
IMSO - obviously AMER knew the capacity constraints of the Ecu RODA system - but with the OBA 4 mths late- Indigenous tribal litigation, Social Unrest affecting performance - it probably took the view of a slower release of critical data and BAd News and stop an SP collapse and their jobs. I see an opportunity here, Capex for Oil margin and volume. AMER could well act as a sub contractor funding and building necessary infrastructure upgrades for P-Amazomas in exchange for volume concessions and oil margin and get in close with a multi-national. That way keep control of cost and become a quasi- partner offering necessary skill and expertise.in a very troubled area. First mover advantage. Quote' Detailed engineering and costing work is underway with respect to the construction of the Chiritza pumping station within the RODA system, which will serve to increase system efficiency and Amerisur's transport quota under the agreement currently being negotiated with Petroamazonas. 'the Chiritza project continues to be very interesting to the Company and I hope to complete the technical and commercial arrangements in the short term, thus allowing a rapid start-up of the project itself. All the ingredients are present for a quick lift off to 7.2kbpd and more - a faster route to Oil Trading where the real cash is - IMO a silent SP break out is on the cards - soon. RNS states O/p up Feb 17 I believe. GLA only an idea.
As opposed to an exploration well - which is high risk, costly, as it's time consuming logging all NEW data from cores & can take 2 mths and a step out well which tries to define the boundary limits of a reservoir horizontally & vertically, an infill well targets a known section of a proven reservoir, it is therefore low risk, quick, does not need in depth logging and is an efficient and a very profitable investment as it immediately accelerates the draining of the reservoir i.e immediate increase in output and increases reserves with that boost in output. Infill wells = great highly profitable business. IN our case Plat 24 could add +1kbpd if conditions on the ground i.e. peace allows. Hope that helps. So the update is +ve news whence we get an idea of output data - mth end hopefully.
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