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Amerisur Share Chat (AMER)



Share Price: 20.05Bid: 20.25Ask: 20.45Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Amerisur
Spread: 0.20Spread as %: 0.99%Open: 21.05High: 21.05Low: 19.745Yesterday’s Close: 20.05


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Velo
Posts: 1,943
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.05
Tying up loose ends
Today 20:37
Last Friday I posted that I thought the SP had become ov/bought commencing from that precceding Wednesday 10th January.

I said it was likely to herald some sort of small retrace in days, rather than weeks. Some posted that they thought I may have be too negative in my outlook. Possibly.

In later posts I revealed I wished I'd said 'sooner' rather than days, I still do, but anyway, as fate would have it, it's now confirmed (in my eyes) it came out of ov/bought on Tuesday 16th this week. So SP is free-ranging now, and no longer ov/bought.

Not that any of that matters, just didn't like leaving it 'unfinished'.

Yes it's done a small retrace, to come out of ov/bought, but nothing of note, or concern.
 
Velo
Posts: 1,943
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.05
RE: PE ratio & calulating the futur..
Today 20:10
Erratum:

"But using the forward projection based on the half year interims "only" throws up $60.9m not $64.2m"

$64.2m is a typo - I meant the the $84.2m estimate. Wherever you see 64.2m substitute 84.2m

....Tsk! Oh dear.
Velo
Posts: 1,943
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.05
RE: PE ratio & calulating the futur..
Today 20:02
Thought so, here's the ending -

The estimates given for the full year 2017 (actuals for that due out this April) show revenue guidance to be in the region of $84.2m As the year ending 2016 revenue was $47.2m , I thought great, that has to be result in even greater earnings per share. But using the forward projection based on the half year interims "only" throws up $60.9m not $64.2m

- Whatever, $47.2m revenue last year and if only the lower 'forward' figure - then that's still a 29% increase in revenue! However, should there be a miss to that $60.9m I would expect a pre-closing RNS update adjusting guidance to prepare the market, rather than slap them with a surprise in April. But if 60m is the target I've yet to hear any whispers that it's not to be; so go with the 'estimate' rather than the accounting standard trailing 12 month 'forward' figure until an RNS advises otherwise. No negative RNS - then it's on! :)

But here's the thing. That estimate of $60.9m is for the year just ended
- this year now, 2018, the estimate is for $153m
- so that's why there's such optimism around the SP being re-rated. I was ready to calculate quite a decent future SP, now I had a projected PE ratio to hand it was PE 10.point something last Friday - tonight it's dropped slightly to now show PE9.94 in line with the SP drop today. Now you might think PE9.94 is seriously undervalued but bear in mind the whole industry is rated to be on a lower PE than the whole stockmarket.

The Whole stockmarket median PE ratio is approx 14.6 but the whole of the gas and oil industry shows a lower PE at a median of 12.3

So forget the whole stockmarket average, the oil industry average is PE12.3 Which is good news for holders of Amer as it means when the results are delivered in April, the forward PE ratio of Amer as of tonight is 23.7% undervalued to the whole oil and gas sector!

In other words the SP is due a near 24% rerate if the company delivers on it's estimates.

So that would mean 20.05p x 23.7% = 24.8p approx by April 2018 if the results back up the estimates. Happy with that? Thought not. So where have I gone wrong? Possibly basing the 'forward' on the mid year interim results that came out last September. A lot has, and is, changing even since then. So a future SP of 24p is the base figure.

If you expect more from the SP (even the CEO in the video was wondering when the rerate would occur) it's up to you to show how much more it's worth after the April 2018 results day:)
Velo
Posts: 1,943
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.05
PE ratio & calulating the future SP
Today 19:57
Might not fit in one go - so this might end up covering 2 posts......

I've spent some time on the accounts particularily cashflow balances and earnings per share - to establish a PE ratio. Had a tough time with that last one - because there isn't one. Earnings per share (EPS) nor PE ratio, that is. EPS have been negative for the last couple of years, and ties-in with the decline in the SP since 2014 as that was the last year, earnings per share were last seen - and from then on it fell into negative territory. Without EPS - no PE. No PE then no sensible evaluation of SP is possible.

I tried all ways to calculate one but without any earnings it was impossible. Checked online and Discounted Cashflow was offerred up as a method; which was dismissed by other info online. (And that's if I could find such a thing; I couldn't). That was until the superb, scene-stealing, interim results released in September last year. All the guidance and projections by commentators and bloggers can be seen to be forming in that first 6 months set of decent trading results - the best since the end of 2014 put a stop to it all.

The actual half year figures can be projected forward, incorporating the last 12 months of last known set of results to give what's known as Trailing 12 Month projection (Usually referred to simply as "forward" to give a more up to date guide as the last full accounts are now 1 year out of date and show only negative earnings. (And with that, a forward PE was established).

So when someone posted of the $40m cash balance as being decimated, I checked and sure enough the half year 2017 interim declared it down to $29m from the beginning of the year's $40m.

However, after incorporating that to arrive at the now trailing 12 month "forward" projection it shows it's likely right now to be in the vicinity of $24m.

Trawling through the full cashflow accounts appears to show it's been put to good use, just as the CEO said in the video, no debt, etc., future drilling to be paid out of incoming cash - so why run with more cash set aside than strictly necessary? Below £10m would be dangerous in my highly personal opinion (just under $14m for round figures). So all good there, so far.

The estimates given for the full year 2017 (actuals for that due out this April) show revenue guidance to be in the region of $84.2m As the year ending 2016 revenue was $47.2m , I thought great, that has to be result in even greater earnings per share. But using the forward projection based on the half year interims "only" throws up $60.9m not $64.2m

- Whatever, $47.2m revenue last year and if
BaileyClark
Posts: 706
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.60
RE: leas
Today 11:57
Thanks for the info leas, will give it a look. Always valued your opions back in the day. I made a bit of a ricket with IQE, sold out too early unfortunately - still made a nice profit but it could have been so much more. I guess it is all part of the learning process but still grates when I think of it! Apologies to others for off topic but good to meet up with you again.
leas
Posts: 3,924
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.60
RE: leas
Today 11:35
Bailey, likewise. Hope the years of investing have been kind to you. You were always a well informed investor over at IQE and SLP. I have had an excellent run on bios since moving from commodities. Sentiment seems to have flipped so I am recycling my profits. I have been looking at AMER for a while after reading a news article a few months back. There was also a discussion in Parliament that caught my eye on the situation in South American Politics.
There is now an understanding by some governments that foreign investment and exports are key to any improvement in living standards in those countries. Without it, inflation becomes too high and their currency becomes worthless. This of course leads to civil unrest. I suppose investments there and in S.A. have that element of risk. Although in different sectors, there are similarities between SLP and AMER. I think revenue makes that risk easier to take.
Will post a couple of links that may be of interest but I know you will be fully researched. Had a good look at this last night and cannot understand why it is in this trading range.
Atvb to you and your family.
leas
BaileyClark
Posts: 706
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.90
leas
Today 11:11
Hey leas, great to hear from you. Hope you are well? I'm no longer invested in SLP - it always looked like a company with great potential but never did quite deliver. Quite a few people are tipping gold (have a few investments there) and precious metals over the next few years so could be their time. Re Colombia, yes there is risk but things are improving there and also in South America generally. A journalist recently commented that Venezuela has been a beacon on how not to run a country and now countries such as Argentina, Ecuador and Colombia are becoming more open and friendly to foreign investment. All the best to you.
jointhedots
Posts: 1,385
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.925
View Thread (3)
CPO-5
Today 09:05
The interview was not really to my taste, I like to body language and voice that demonstrates confidence and openness - there where times in the interview when he looked distinctly uncomfortable though always keyed up about the issues. I put it down to him being very cautious about saying something which could be construed as ambiguous, commercially sensitive or an exaggeration. He's a very experienced guy and I assume diplomatic, wouldn't directly criticise the Indians, Equador when drawn by Malcy. What he said was sensible and measured which brings me to CPO-5.

The Indians and Amer are being very cagey, at least outside the industry - who are these people suggesting large valuations of the block, it's not PI's (he wouldn't take notice of us) so perhaps industry players as nothing has filtered into the market in terms of SP demand. Who is suggesting huge valuations and why think that?

I suspect ONGC would prefer to play it down, if they are interested in taking our share they would not wish to alert potential competitors and push the price up - we are likely to have scant information, just the bare bones on this block. I'm not even sure if Amerisur are contractually permitted to present a formal view without approval, Amerisur certainly don't shy away from over-egging things but not in this case.

ONGC have released another tender today for "HIRING OF AGENCY FOR TESTING TOOLS & COMPLETION SERVICES FOR WELL INDICO-1X". They are certainly getting on with it, but there are so many tenders and they are almost presented end to end. I cannot believe they are going to go through this routine for ever well, suggest bad project management, deliberate feet dragging or a team that can't/won't cope with the volume of work. Previously they contracted for 2 wells and didn't formally tender for all the granular stuff and haven't done this on all their other wells.
Perhaps they are building a pool of relationships for future work, I hope so as it will be painful to watch this slug-like process for every well. As they never drilled the Sol-1 well which was part of the Mariposa tender, some suppliers could have been reluctant to sign up again at all or at a decent price without formal tender. It all seems very strange and cumbersome, but I'm not an experienced person so perhaps someone with experience could comment?
easyp
Posts: 412
Answer
Opinion:Buy
Price:21.05
RE: So Keen Miised the Bus - GC
Today 08:44
The vital statistics are a good enough reason for me to buy and hold. Yep some possible issues like security and political interference to consider but I cannot think of a commodity share that does not have similar threats.

For some BP is the first choice because of the safety of going with the herd. For me Amerisur is a growth punt so for the risk I would hope to see sp multiplying over the next three years.




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