I've put St Christopher back in situ and got a Colombian Voodoo doll of Malcy - Every lie he gets a needle. He'll be wafer thin when I've finished. Just to raise hopes generally on the Oil outlook. Quote 'Whether oil markets should be concerned over the recent slowdown in new oil finds and accelerating decline rates at existing fields depends on how capable OPEC's top Gulf producers are at developing their sizable conventional reserve base, according to Bank of America.' While higher output from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq may prove the most likely source of new supply, questions remains over the capacity of the OPEC producers to fill the widening gap given current investment trends, the bank said. IMO - They won't if OPEC & Russia Cut 1m barrels t!!! Next' Bank of America reiterated its estimates that global oil supplies will expanded by 200,000 b/d year-on-year in 2017 and retained its view that Brent will average $61/b next year. Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of French oil company Total, has also warned of a possible 10 million b/d global oil supply deficit by 2020 given forecasts of planned upstream projects and the additional capacity needed to cover natural field declines. - BP, for one, has made much of holding its field decline rates below average industry levels. Speaking on an earnings call Tuesday, BP's upstream chief Bernard Looney said BP's hopes of growing production capacity in the coming years in the face of low oil prices will be underpinned by keeping decline rates close to the 3% average they have seen since 2012. BP is banking on bringing 800,000 boe/d of new capacity on line by 2020, as its readies its balance sheet to survive with $50-55/b oil. For planning purposes, however, the oil major acknowledges that future base decline rates could still rise up to 5% and no targets of actual production have been given. The Oil super tanker is turning in my inadequate experience - Russia OPEC know this - this US laughing at cheap Oil supply Glut is about to get challenged - good for Oil stocks. NB BP Growing output by LIMITING DECLINE RATES FFS - I'm no analyst by a trillion light years but we get fed Oil info Sxxt and are played by the Media- rip thru it DYOR and see US are desperate to keep oil cheap - their output is collapsing and they are draining wealth from the Middle East & Russia - what if the tide turns is only my point to contemplate for free thinking Pi's - if so Oil will not bounce but soar - as the West can't react to a supply jolt. - inventories are what 90 days!. GLGN I'm glad I'm in Oil.
Sorry- Last point -Repeat 1. With over 90% of global oil production accounted for by conventional fields, average decline rates have been under close scrutiny since 2014 for clues to the scale of the potential supply impact. At 5% average decline rates, some 2.8 million b/d of new oil production would be needed just to replace non-OPEC field declines in 2016.2."After almost two years of capital starvation, the world's legacy production base is showing signs of wear and tear. Depletion never sleeps and the 60 million b/d not sourced from OPEC or onshore Lower-48 US shale is suffering from insufficient maintenance," the bank said. End If OPEC were smart - A. Cut Back.700k. Russia Cut Back 700k & Depletion natural cut backs +1m - Supply struggling in 6 months. Maybe that's why there are very large US & China cheap reserves guess Shale can't react/ Deep water not and capital & maintenance can't - maybe totally wrong unless demand collapses but is this a maybe - the US business plan. Exciting times - each week different slant. GN With a floor under the PoO we're happy. Last post.
Hi CJ - I'll be very brief - one of the guys on iii Contrawise requested an update on this, today on Bloomberg - Peetrie Capital (Sorry if incorrect) I think said depletion is quasi demand most fields are mature so expect 4-5% clawback on output= equal to OPEC's reduction stance unwittingly. If Russia play a subtle game (Cut back ???guess) & we get thru a hiatus of negative perception for Oil value we could have interesting PoO levels. Yes US Shale will recover but the remedial damage is done, will take a year (He said - lack of credit and bank appetite to invest) recover & if a 2m per day swing TOO much for Shale baby & deep water mega projects 3-5 yrs if revived!! We are on land- low Capex & a trading second stream of income - we all know etc etc - After the Analysts visit - it should be clear their visit news/reports delay by International Politics ( A Monkey tree scare can take 1 buck off a tariff) - out of the control of AMER - worth the wait - if 'In two Countries' and so on. Hopefully not to long and as 'Hub' says on other BB what are a few days when there is 3 year over run. HNY Hope you are well CJ interesting times ahead. GN GL For all AMER Pi's please make it a quick +ve FFS.
Hi Baz. Whilst the noises are good can't help but think they'll break the production limits. The OPEC group have previous in this regard. I have taken some cash today (sold HUR) as I expect some more posturing from the smaller producers Nigeria Algeria etc I think we will see a wobble come Oct during maintenance season as inventories grow in Oct I see this as an opportunity to deploy more capital. Am bullish medium term PoO due to massive E and P cuts come later 2017/18
US & Goldman Sachs - bear bluff that OPEC are Krap won't last no detail on individual cuts - against Russian bulls just hit 11.75m Record Av 11.1m for Sept - do I cut & I can cut & by how much? Simple but clever sussing out the bears at their own game by staggering the announcement dates - difficult to short???. GL Waiting will be over Nov or sooner - must support PoO surely. GL Round 1 to the bears for stalling the impact of the good news, can it hold.
What I was trying to highlight - Russia understand better than most the volatility in herding OPEC into a semblance of a Cartel - which by definition is very fragile. ' Quote Seeking Alpha Russia likely to join in the cut after serving as a mediator in Algeria. Russian oil production cut will further accelerate drawdown of oil inventory. We believe that there's still another shoe to drop, and that's Russia's involvement. Russia has been playing an active role in Algiers to help OPEC reach an agreement. As one of the key non-OPEC players in the last failed-Doha meeting earlier this year, Russia was keen to avoid any embarrassment in Algiers. As such, much of its role was behind the scenes this time. According to Bloomberg, Russia, Algiers and Qatar served as mediators between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a role that allowed the parties to successfully reach a workable framework. Although a formal agreement/ratification of the framework will have to wait until OPEC's biannual meeting on November 30 (along with a formal assignment of new quotas to each OPEC member), we anticipate that Russia will announce its own cut/freeze either at the meeting or before. END' - This is what I was poorly babbling about - there's more cuts to come that should override doubts on OPEC holding up. Supporting a steady rise in the PoO. GL Mkt in reviewing position now must factor in Russia- who've exceeded expectations well done Putin who discussed Iran 1st week Sept. GL.
Yep, sorry for the lack of clarity and poor maths - Gob smacked by the news and its potential if Russia supports & join in this move. It will be interesting to see what Russia actually commits to by Nov 16 - the record output 11.4m (and maintain it) was a strong pre meeting opening gambit after the embarrassment in Doha but does give flexibility to compromise and maintain revenue as you say davidpqz if Oil up $2. I'm surprised at the damp response to this OPEC news, Goldman Sachs got it wrong and are trying to reposition hence their news output criticism taints - IMO what most believe is far better, more radical oil news - first potential agreement in 8 yrs, irrespective if it holds - SA & Iran on the same song-sheet - a new paradigm!? . I think this will take a while to properly filter thru into POO & Oillies SP's unfortunately, but has to be better for all E&P's than the previous stance of bickering and indecision - leaves door wide open for shorting. Fingers crossed & really hope the post OPEC E&P re-rate is sooner rather than later & a steady firming of the POO over the next few months +$50 GL
(Same as Iran so they can pull back with Iran +400 @$2 up and maintain status)
You are very prolific but very hard to understand. Just take this snippet, you appear to be saying that because Iran and Russia's production increase just happens to be the same figure they can pull back by the same amount. Isn't this just a coincidence and don't you think that any agreement (IF any gets implemented) would be on an agreed percentage basis?
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