Report noted on GENL. The sudden water ingress, and the scale of it, is surprising. Would be interesting to read the follow up on this story.
To date, I have always been impressed by the low water cut on Platanillo together with the high IPs on natural flow and choke application. It won't always be the case in exploratory drills across the basin. And yields may not be as high as some of the Plat results.
Critical time coming up for AMER, particularly with all the background politics. Keep your powder dry until the manure ceases to hit the fan.
Yes there is definitely oil to be found, What is in question is its viability. Too much water, too far away from the OBA pipeline or too much for the constrained OBA pumping capacity (downstream actually) and it will have no value no matter how many discoveries are made as Genel's share price today indicates. Still it helps to have no debt so I'll be keeping a close eye on cashflow. I also don't want any more capital raising thank you!
Two comments on the topic hardly fill anyone with bags of encouragement. Oil price in 2017, despite all analysts' opinion, is an unknown. The depressed price has dragged on seemingly forever with no real indication of recovery. At ~$48/barrel, the math doesn't add up if Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc need ~$90/barrel to balance their accounts. Saudi (and Aramco) require a similar figure in terms of fiscal budget. So does OPEC introduce another round of production cuts within 3 months?
Moving on . . . I don't believe the chief seller, RH, is finished. The process could go on unless he has an ulterior motive. And he is throttled by (not) being on the wrong end of losses that are unaffordable. For LTHs here, AMER's only remedy is to maintain the present level of communication and jack up their PR on the website. A breakthrough on OBA and decent figures on a couple of exploratory wells will do a lot of good.
A start has been made on investigation into the Villeta formation. I had no idea how extensive it was. Not much information is available. One factor has to be the region is largely unexplored. And it looks as though an attempt has to be made on recent history - even if some of it is at distance from the OBA cluster. A useful example is -
Still testing 20p BUT abit happier with BOD as starting to give regular updates which is what Investors want==would be nice to get upto date throughput figures for OBA and BOPD==and Confirmation got Licence increase to 5000+ throughput sorted
Probably trade 40-60 range for next 2 years. I think things get better 3-5 years as massive cuts in E and P bare fruit. OPEC with Saudi will likely extend the cuts probably puts a floor esp Aramco IPO. U.S. shale will absorb for so long but remember this won't rise indefinitely as most attractive shale plays will be priced high and service companies will exert cost pressures and capital access won't be as easy. AMER is surpressed due to seller but they generate good margins with OBA it's got no debt and it's drill costs are low, it's an energy hungry area. Riskier investments are deep water unless your investment horizons are longer.
Hi gents, have read a number of articles about the price of oil this year, particularly in relation to OPEC and the impact of shale gas output. Many of the reports typically conflict. Some state that the price of oil is rising, another states that it may decline. What's your personal and general opinion in relation to the possibility of the price of oil rising or falling in 2017? Obviously if we all knew the answers for sure we would be millionaires.. but interested and would appreciate your own knowledgeable views. I would like to relate this information in my mind to how some of the smaller and independent oil firms produce oil cheaply compared to some of the oil giants. Cheers Chris
A well-known poster might have found an explanation last night on reasons behind the distressed SP created by RH's heavy drip selling. I have not examined it myself, and leave it to him to confirm an opinion. If correct, I do not find anything sinister at present in the listed information from Morningstar (see below, Wed. 13:20).
That opinion, of course, may change over time. The selling continues from whoever, but equally one or more parties is balancing it with chunky buys each day.
Management are keeping tabs on the matter, which was confirmed in yesterday's RNS disclosed via Capita.
Yup, perhaps he needs the cash to launch an assault elsewhere. Would be interesting to know what his long term strategy is here though. If he likes launching hostile takeovers then his actions here suggest he has his eyes on a different prize. Not a problem unless he keeps selling but if he keeps doing that his returns will diminish. Surely the longer game here is the more sensible approach unless you are desperate for cash.
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