(1) Assuming that the spike to 40p reflected a 'fair value', and (2) forgetting that AMC had 130m fewer shares in issue during that spike.
40p looks like a like a wild anomaly to me, driven by a large and overexcited base of retail shareholders. Until ii's support this price, it will remain a hostage to sentiment awaiting a white knight that may never come.
The break even rate, not profit rate, is in the region $3.40 - $5.70. The lower figure being based on perceived Russian extraction costs and the higher one based on Australian extraction costs. Clearly, these can fluctuate based on exchange rates (the fall in the relative value of the Rouble in recent times has assisted this), inflation, etc.
"I wouldn't bet against them achieving road/power/take off agreement/ sale/jv/ shared smelter/toll smelting etc. That's the point, just one of those possibilities sends this soaring."
No not all of those achievements alone will send it soaring - the key ones would be JV and/or sale and most of the rest would determine the price, not least the DFS or whatever you feel the Russians or Chinese will require, but you can rest assured it will be some from of viability appraisal.
As TDT points out, several days after the fact some of the facts of the RNS become blurred with the telling and re-telling here and elsewhere - always best to refer back to the detail.
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