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Amur Minerals Share Chat (AMC)



Share Price: 4.90Bid: 4.75Ask: 4.90Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Amur Minerals
Spread: 0.15Spread as %: 3.16%Open: 4.95High: 5.19Low: 4.75Yesterday’s Close: 4.90



Share Discussion for Amur Minerals


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Geovanni
Posts: 19
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
RF Funding Conditions
Today 17:13
TDT and RedLee

Thank you for your very recent comments on what needs to happen before RF funding is confirmed.

I hope I am wrong but I think we are a few months away. I will be well impressed if there is an announcement in the next 3 months.

Geovanni
 
RedLee
Posts: 218
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
RE: FAO RedLee
Today 13:08
Hi TDT,

The Fund is in a hard capital rationing situation and in the commercial world you would devise a system of ranking projects based on a profitability index, these two factors in my view are part of the ranking process to ensure fairness for all participants and the best possible return for the state, given limited capital. Where does KM rank? who knows however, we seem to have passed through the initial stage gates ok and I know from doing a few basic numbers there will be plenty of tax revenues to satisfy the investment criteria.

I think the private investment quote is about the total amount of capex vs what the fund contributes. It will not matter where the cash on Amur's b/sheet comes from to pay for the capex either debt, equity or streaming deal and it will all count, Crede's cash of course will be long spent by then so it's not really relevant to the actual calculation IMO.

The fund is not a commercial actor, however IMO their risk assessment will be similar to any commercial lender (there are plenty of clues to this on their map of investment projects and the fund website)which leads to a question: can the fund disperse cash for a road without commercial banks on board? I see you have written about this in a later note, here is my view:

I have been involved in one project c$10m that used EU funds and both parties funding was conditional on the other.
I would see it as normal that all other required lenders have come to the table (a legally binding offer), prior to any drawdown of cash which puts any one party at risk. I don't see the Fund as any different, so whilst we may see an AIP from the fund soon which will allow RY to plan, drawdown of cash won't be until other lenders are ready and that means post DFS. That would put into question the potential for any road building to start any time soon, unless the state is prepared to take a punt even though commercial lenders are not yet at the table. Personally I don't see it, but would be very happy to be wrong!

RL.
Nolosstillsell
Posts: 687
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
Wow
Today 11:37
TDT, Vertigo and Redlee.

You guys are fantastic and I really appreciate the time you put into your research and views.

Please don't ever stop.
beeshoney
Posts: 441
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
sorry guys wrong board
Today 10:32
not sure how that happened
beeshoney
Posts: 441
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:4.90
THERE GOING 4 IT
Today 10:13
,and pushing every way they can, changing tact towards people whom oppose them ,they know groups are more often than not activists who use locals, building 25 power plants , Govt plans PSC for coal sector, there screaming out for investors ,but must have power or it can not happen, o yeah and we have 600 million tons of best coal, all surveyed approved and ready to go with a energy company from malay as one of our partners, hasina probably been on the phone to tang as we speak,
im sure there be more news over weekend but so so much has been missed to create the real picture over the last 3/4 mths
beeshoney
Posts: 441
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:4.90
THERE GOING 4 IT
Today 10:12
,and pushing every way they can, changing tact towards people whom oppose them ,they know groups are more often than not activists who use locals, building 25 power plants , Govt plans PSC for coal sector, there screaming out for investors ,but must have power or it can not happen, o yeah and we have 600 million tons of best coal, all surveyed approved and ready to go with a energy company from malay as one of our partners, hasina probably been on the phone to tang as we speak,
im sure there be more news over weekend but so so much has been missed to create the real picture over the last 3/4 mths
TrickyDickyTwo
Posts: 315
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
View Thread (2)
RE: The Crede Question
Today 09:53
Geovanni

I don't think anybody thinks that. I think what Amur has shown the RF with the extra money that the Crede deal provides is the means to execute an accelerated work program for 2016/17.

I'm not sure I understand your point about a long term investor. I presume you mean either an II or an entity like Norilsk. I'm not sure I understand why you think that important at this stage. The issue at the moment, as you suggest, is Amur needs to show that KM is worth developing even at the low nickel prices we are currently experiencing so, in essence, you have answered your own question. The RF is not going to commit millions to building infrastructure to facilitate the development of KM if KM is then going to sit fallow for several years until the nickel price recovers. That, IMO, is what the change in focus from OP to UG was all about; making KM viable in a low nickel price environment.

Its not the amount of money that Amur raised via the Crede deal, it's what that money will enable Amur to achieve that’s important.

Also, I don't think Amur needs to show they have more nickel. They've got more nickel than they know what to do with. The issue is nickel grades. There are projects out there that contain many multiples the amount of nickel we have that can't get off the ground simply because their grades are too low.

As for the RF committing to fund infrastructure in the near term, they need to do something on that front now if they want to bring KM on line in the medium term. Infrastructure needs to be in place to build the mine. In fact some of the infrastructure is primarily for the mine build not for the mine once it is built. If they are going to build a 320 km road to allow mine building to commence in 2018 they need to starti the road building now. I'm not sure they can build roads in the winter so you are looking at 6/7month in 2016 and 6/7 months in 2017 if you want to commence mine building in 2018.

The RF will not commit to infrastructure until they know the development of the mine is guaranteed. That’s why I think the 5th. April RNS is so important because it more or less does that. Once Amur has re-modelled Kubuk and Ikenskoe/Sobolevsky I think we might see something from the RF on funding.

I put RNSs in word documents, especially the long ones, then I highlight the bits that jump out at me as important. I find this quite a good way to edit down long announcements to the meaty bits. This is by no means fool proof and I’m not suggesting for a second that the bits I’ve highlighted are the only bits to focus on. The below link as a copy of the 5th. April RNS. Read it and let me know what jumps out at you?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/51kcxoh1twzuzvs/2016_04_05%20RNS%20%20copy.docx?dl=0

TDT
Geovanni
Posts: 19
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
RE: The Crede Question
Today 04:29
I think it is a sign of our own desperation if we are able to think that a potential investment of £12.5m by Crede will impress the RF. If the RF were to subsidise this project it is because they believe the business case presented by Amur.

For this to happen there has to be proof of significantly more Nickel in the ground that can be profitably mined at $4/lb. The Crede funding will assist here but will not result in a confirmation from the RF until Amur can demonstrate they have a long term investor. I am not expecting a positive decision from the RF anytime soon.
TrickyDickyTwo
Posts: 315
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
RE: The Crede Question
Fri 20:15
Hi jag11

In short, yes.

I think opto mystic at 15.19 hrs. and brian007 at 16.25 hrs today over on the III BB have shown the way on that front. If brian007 is correct then it also largely explains not only the speed with which the Crede deal was done but the terms on which it was done.

I still expect RY, assuming the Crede deal runs its course and he doesn’t terminate it early, to be able to exercise the call option on the warrants at least once.

TDT
TrickyDickyTwo
Posts: 315
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:4.90
FAO RedLee
Fri 19:48
Hi RL

Could you spend a bit of time considering the below link/post (a copy and paste from III by opto mystic at 15.19 today, Friday 29/04).

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rr0ov3kwnan4h9m/Tax%20Support.docx?dl=0

The follow up post by brian007 at 16.25 picked out the following which I’ve highlighted in bold and under lined in the above link so you can read it in context.

"The main selection criteria are the amount of value added tax revenue from the project at all levels of the budget system, as well as the amount of attracted private investment per 1 ruble of state support"

“Amount of attracted private investment:”

“Crede will be considered a private investor, so let's look at Crede from a more positive perspective!”

This seems to be saying that the RF will consider Crede’s investment in Amur as a positive when making a decision on how much to award Amur in infrastructure funding. What’s your view?

TDT




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