TDT Being left high and dry is certainly what i do not envisage. My hope is for a more attractive and less dilutive means of finding us to DFS but i do not know enough about the financing of projects such as this to decide whether more time is required for a new investor to come on board.I imagine that key elements would be Russian assurances,as far as they can be given,in respect of funding for infrastructure etc and the perception that despite current market conditions this really is a project which has legs
If you consider timescales the disquiet surrounding Crede's antics didn't kick off until 2, at most 3, months ago. Assuming Amur wouldn’t have started putting feelers out to alternative sources of funds until then you have to ask if that is enough time to find an alternative? We've had some excellent news since the start of the year but whether that news is sufficient to change significantly perceptions of Amur is debatable. Furthermore has a potential alternative funder had sufficient time to do their due diligence?
The third tranche may not get taken up when it’s supposed to but if it doesn’t don’t expect an alternative to fill the void straight away. That then introduces uncertainty into the equation and that, together with the negative impact Crede is currently having on confidence, is not a good development. Bit of a rock and a hard place at the moment.
If in doubt stick with what you know/have. The current deal may feel at times like we are taking a good kicking but at least it will get us over the finishing line. I’d rather limp over the line than be left stranded in no man’s land.
TDT "alternatives that are available to us that we could take advantage of" Sounds more positive to me than your interpretation as does"we do not necessarily have to draw down all 5 tranches" I do hope that you are wrong but willingly concede that you may well not be
No so sure about that sansavatar. To exchange the warrants they had to have no subscription shares. The conversion of the warrants RNS of the19th. May states the shares will be admitted to trading on or around 25th. May. That's tomorrow so unless they've been shorting, fully clothed or otherwise, they haven't "been at it again today." They might go at it like rabbit tomorrow though.
I remember when i met RY and his finance director in London the FD said to me that raising billions was going to be much easier than millions perhaps we are seeing that that is indeed the case and there weren't many alternatives for a company with little track record and no income?
“We do have the ability to finance through the DFS. There are alternatives that are available to us that we could take advantage of, including the Far East Development Fund, they’re very keen in in getting this project moving fast and we have opportunities to source funds from…..they’re beginning to surface from multiple locations.”
In response to Crede.
“As I’ve just said we believe there are other opportunities that available to us and we do not have to necessarily draw down all 5 tranches. We are very carefully evaluating our financial set up right now to get us all the way through the DFS and that’s our real goal, I mean that DFS is a real game changer for us and right now we are going through a lot of the financials, I anticipate they will probably be out towards the end of June obviously when all the juniors tend to report which is the last day of June…what…we are trying to get this possibly moved forward… so we are looking at a pretty solid cash position at this point in time so we will have the opportunity to reconsider all possible financing for any DFS structure and also for any engineer…any additional engineering works beyond the DFS such as soil studies for bridge building on the road.”
To me that does not sound like a man who will be replacing Crede anytime soon.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Crede deal has not gone the way RY had hoped. I would expect him to think long and hard before entering into another similar type financing deal.
“If we're to take RY at his word, then at the recent conference he himself was very unimpressed with credes approach to "investing" in Amur.”
How else do you expect him to respond? The pitch forks were out, he had to tell the mob what they wanted to hear (sorry for the metaphor guys but you know what I mean).
Nobody is saying you can’t be pee’d off. If you want to be pee’d off then direct the pee at Crede. You’ll be peeing in the wind mind you but at least your pee will not be misdirected.
On the one hand you are saying RY and PIs are right to be peed off at Crede. In the next breath you are claiming what, that RY hasn’t done appropriate due diligence? Make your mind up, who is to blame here in your opinion, Crede or RY? If Crede decide to renege on a deal what sort of due diligence do you think could have prevented that? Trotting out due diligence without explaining what you think could have been done to prevent Crede selling is an extraordinarily lazy statement to make. And please, don’t anybody suggest a lock-in because if anybody does seriously suggest this as an option I’ll probably end up hurting myself laughing.
I don’t recall stating anywhere that I found the Crede deal more acceptable than RY (I don’t see how I can since I’ve no idea how unacceptable RY finds the deal). What is without doubt a fact, however, is we are where we are. We have funding for the DFS and that’s all that matters IMO.
I think we will see tranche 3 being drawn down. I hope I’m wrong. If we do I’ll be disappointed but I will not be waving my pitch fork and storming the Amur palisade anytime soon. If it happens we are just going to have to live with it. If you can’t then there’s always the sell button.
Agreed, TDT - we are where we are, with sufficient cash to get us to the all important DFS. The method chosen is far from pleasant currently but it serves that crucial purpose and nobody knows what, if any, 'do able' alternatives were available pre - Christmas last year when it became necessary to quickly get in more cash than the $6m odd we had back then.
I suspect none myself, with the industry well out of favour, majors 'under the cosh', juniors almost a 'no go' area, the NI price on the floor, etc.,
RY must be aware of the acute disenchantment with the Crede deal, despite the expedience of it and might yet find an alternative to its conclusion in six months time but, at least, we have the money 'ring fenced' for now - meanwhile, let's allow him to concentrate on what lies ahead with the FEDC, and now the Koreans, in the wings - sasa.
TDT we are indeed largely in agreement and I fully accept that the Crede deal may have been the best available at the time ,although Credes subsequent behaviour probably came as a surpriseThe point that I was making is that having alluded to the likely availability of other finance the BOD are going to annoy many shareholders if we continue with Crede unless perhaps a convincing explanation is given I confess that I do find the situation fascinating and part of me would love to be on the board of directors and involved in any negotiations.
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