"Leaving aside China, US, Germany, the rest of the EU and the UK, what we are witnessing now is that a solar revolution is gaining momentum in the most unlikely places such as the Gulf States, India and Japan. The Gulf is rich in oil and gas, India depends heavily on coal and oil while Japan previously relied on natural gas, coal and nuclear energy. Why are these countries now looking towards solar energy?"
A little wild but something tells me there is a bit more to oil's price decline than OPEC, the dollar and Iran. Maybe Mexican President Nieto was onto something when he privatised Petroleos Mexicano..
Searching around, Greentechnica posted an article a few days ago on it:
"Global information and analysis company IHS has released a news flash to journalists with updated solar PV forecasts from IHS analysts speaking at the SNEC 9th (2015) International Photovoltaic Power Generation Conference & Exhibition in Shanghai.
Specifically, IHS is now forecasting global solar demand to grow by as much as 30% in 2015 over 2014 numbers, and reaching 57 GW."
Note that prior to this update, the most bullish forecast was that from Mercom Capital at 54.5GW globally for 2015. Solar demand is incredibly hard to predict but we are currently looking at a massive under-estimation and thats the very reason why there could be a sharp correction in silver (2.5GW difference alone ~ 2800000 OpGW *2.5 = 7000000 ounces of silver).
Thats quite staggering considering the whole of 2014 added 44.2GW globally. Also, the IHS issued that update prior to the Tesla announcement. One of the reasons for the boom is the multi-billion $ amount of government subsidies for solar projects by governments globally. It would also be fair to say that these massive subsidies are like a specific form of QE that caught many off-guard.
"Though the low-hanging fruit is gone, Mexico’s massive precious-metals belts have been found to hold ample silver resources directly below the historically-mined deposits."
Although the article focusses on MAG, no doubt Arian offers the same benefits at greater leverage. While we are all waiting for the drill results this article highlights the possibilities alluded to in our latest drilling press release:
"Historic workings, together with recent geological interpretation, indicate that the SJV continues underneath the township of Guanajuatillo but the area has yet to be properly explored."
reading some interesting news articles looking at POS compared to the dollar. Its interesting to note that even as the dollar has gained hugely over the last few months, silver has pretty much traded in a tight range. Very bullish to me for the future if the dollar turns. The last time it held its strength against rising dollar strength was right before the push to nearly $50
Note that David Taylor from Arian contributed as a reviewer on the above document. However, I don't expect these new regulations to be too much of a hurdle considering that we have CSA Global commissioned for our technical reports.
The only developments I've been following recently is POS and noticed zinc is about to test the last highs set in 2006!(lead is still on fire). Note that Edison's US$0.28 per resource ounce of silver has no contribution from lead and zinc by-products. Arian seem to be keeping us all in suspense with the drill results. As well as resource, I'm also very interested to know the cash cost per ounce after factoring in recent lead and zinc developments. Even if we are only left with 22% of these after streaming.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is, solar now has overcome the biggest hurdle to mass adoption - Cost. In combination with Japan predicting solar to edge out nuclear, solar is now set to do the unthinkable only a few years ago, become cheaper than coal - and the race is now on to beat coals 4 Kwph:
Solar currently supplies far less than 1 quadrillion Btu out of an annual total of 96.5 quadrillion Btu in the US (oil is 36 quadrillion Btu, coal is 19). Considering Tesla is going into production now and with other companies to surely follow, the CPM group might want to rethink the 2015 PV silver demand figure they forecast in wednesdays silver yearbook report before looking very silly
90%+ of the reason I'm holding these is as a hugely leveraged bet that silver will climb long term. If nationalising mexico's miners starts seeming likely I'll take some off the table but I don't see that happening in the forseeable. Even holding large quantities of physical has its risks. Personally I have a very high tolerance for risk as confirmed via promothease/23andme.
You mentioned about holding these in case of an economic collapse, just be careful of having all your eggs in one basket. In the event of something disastrous happening, its not out of the realms of possibility for Mexico to nationalize the silver miners. But in general i agree with your points. It is only a matter of time before the manipulation stops working. Demand is outstripping supply already and as the price languishes in the mid teens there is little incentive for companies to explore new mines, or for companies to find a substitute for silver in industry. Lack of new mines coming online due to lower capex combined with higher demand will have an effect over the next 3-7 years. Secondary supply will only be able to keep the price relatively stable for a short time. In some ways i see us as mirroring the conditions in the mid 1970s, if we have an advance like in 1980 we will do very nicely. I'm not sure what the inflation adjusted equivalent of $40 silver from 1980 is, but it must be around $80 -$100 or more. Its happened before, its possible it will again by the end of the decade.
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