The way AEX and SOLO have been worked today I reckon news is very close. last ditch attempts by MMs to milk a few shares. I would say that some have lost sight of what we have but I suspect they never had any in the first place given some of the questions being asked.
I think when putting a value to anything here...you need to factor in that all important rogue element of market sentiment....we experienced it recently when hot money boosted the sp to over 7.5p...that's a good 50% above what sp is currently...
come on Jay...booze cupboard empty, wine cellar resembles a ghost town, liver bereft of sustenace and arteries languishing for some alcohol throughtput......
Hi trrime, yes, that's definitely a good question. If we agree that assets declared in the results of 30th June 2016 + the value of revenues from Kiliwani = approx. 2.82p to the share price. If we also agree that NT2 is very likely to be no less than 200BCF and that this is worth about 4.5p to the share price, then the answer would be..."not much...probably not at all".
I appreciate there are a lot of 'ifs' in there but it is a viewpoint at least. Do you think that makes sense?
Here is what I think 100 BCF means to Aminex ignoring percentage ownership / with ownership at 100%: 200 BCF = $260m / £209.2 (at 1 : 0.8). Therefore 100 BCF = £104.6m (209.2/200 x 100) 100 BCF Value per share = 3p (104.6 / 3,475.9 = 0.03)
So, based upon the figures we’ve come up with, it would be interesting to put a value on Nyuni. 4.2TCF / 4200 BCF prospective resources (quoted from last RNS) = 126p (3/100 x 4200) Aminex owns 90%, therefore = (126 * 0.9) = 113.4p
Aminex states that “Drilling success in the region based on 3D seismic has been over 90%”. However, I don’t think we have 3D seismic do we? Or do we?! Also I presume that is not the same as our own chance of success. So, I think you would want to reduce this to more like 70%? That would be worth 79.38p. Struth!!
Presumably this has some value to us now. I.e. a company that is the same as Aminex in all regards but does not have the license we have for Nyuni would surely be less valuable. That may not be reflected in the share price but logically it is correct.
I’d argue that if Aminex announced they were going to drill Nyuni then it would become a ‘real’ prospect and you’d start to see some of that ~70% chance of finding 4.2TCF being reflected in the sp in the run up to results. In the meantime, I suppose the value to shareholders is greatly reduced as it is just an ‘option’, not something planned. Even so, surely the ‘option’ is worth something? Even if you just take the potential value as weighted for 70% chance of success and assume that the ‘option’ is worth only 10% of that, you would still be looking at a contribution of 7.9p to the share price!
Obviously sp values don’t work as simplistically as this but isn’t this another piece of data that is evidence to support the view that the sp is very much under valued?
It would be good to continue to build a realistic view of what Aminex could be worth based upon the best analysis we can come up with. Sorry if this has all been done before!
As ever, I’d be really grateful for your help to amend this as required to make it more realistic.
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