Exxon has reportedly farmed into an oil and gas block in the Neuguen block in Argentina, this is where the famous Vaca Muerta is and this can only be good news for Andes Energia. Whilst the political storms continue over the country’s debt I can understand why investors are standing back but mark my words some people are going to make a lot of money out of Andes at some stage . Cuba
I've looked at YPF's and AEN's SP charts over the past month... they are nearly exact opposites, at least 80% of the time the SPs are moving in opposite directions, and the key turning points coincide (and are opposites). I think that this might suggest that as the "provinces versus feds-plus-YPF battle" swings from one side gaining to the other side gaining, this is the driving factor for the AEN SP (and YPF's). That's the easy bit.. figuring out the main political factors let alone the outcome not so easy!
Hi, thanks for this. Yes, makes more sense - I was struggling with the translation, re 'discovery' :) Internationally/Investor-wise I guess maybe that Obama's support against asset grabbing etc (irrespective of the legality of the 'courts') is generally confidence building in the region as a whole. Doesn't necessarily explain the nice rise in the sp though as other factors are more important to AEN.
Thanks for your posts. I found them interesting. Hoping that the situation resolves itself and that AEN can continue its operations. GL!
Hi, thanks for response, and this is a good find. Think the word "discovery" is the American legal term referring to the uncovering of info... in this case info in Chevron's possession about YPF's assets, demanded by the litigants. They would then proceed to taking possession of assets. But can't understand how a US court can grab non-US assets belonging to a foreign non-governmental entity (i.e. YPF). Yes Obama on board, and article says he is also worried about Argy courts grabbing US assets reciprocally. I don't think in any case that any of the Chevron-YPF licences are in blocks with AEN participation as they are newly allocated licences. Think the main problem for AEN may be that this is distracting YPF from any drilling, and they might even deliberately stall drills until this blows over. Also this plus the provincial dispute makes it very difficult for AEN to make a presentation, since it can't offer any clarity about the political situation. GL!
I spotted it by following one of your links. Obama seems to be in support protecting the Vaca Muerta 'Discovery' away from the vulture funds (if I read it correctly), thus protecting Chevron's (US) interests.
Coupled with the other links you posted re: differences between federal and regional government it all sounds horrifically complex.
I'm nearly back to what I bought in at now, not quite blue yet, so it would be nice to see the sp rise a little and also to stop the vultures profiting at knock-down from what should be a significant economic boost to the country.
The provinces are continuing to battle on against the Kirchner federal government and YPF. Mendoza Province has defied the federal government by offering 8 new exploration areas in return for provincial participation in the upside. Mendoza, Neuquen etc haven't given up the fight and the final outcome looks less and less clear....... see this in La Nacion, the leading Argy "broadsheet" and business paper............................... http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1704578-avanza-en-mendoza-una-licitacion-objetada-por-ypf
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699981-acuerdan-con-gobernadores-avanzar-en-una-ley-petrolera-a-medida-de-las-empresas Kirchner met with provincial governors yesterday and made it very clear the new law will bring shale licensing into federal control. Motivation is to attract big foreign players to help exploit Vaca Muerta and neighbouring plays. AEN's licenses were taken out for the normal 25 year terms and hopefully the feds will not interfere with these... but it seems much less likely AEN will gain any new licences (the co's strength having been good relationships with provincial governors). Maybe AEN saw writing on wall given its recent push into neighbouring countries.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699143-una-pelea-que-pone-en-riesgo-el-futuro-de-vaca-muerta This explains the reason for big drop in SP over past few days.... a framework for regulation and most importantly licensing of shale acreage is under discussion by the federal government. YPF seems to have been trying to persuade the feds to snatch the power to award and renew licences away from provincial governments (YPF would then in future be hand-in-hand with the feds). Naturally the provinces are fighting hard against this. YPFs licences have of course been awarded by the provinces (notably Neuquen in which Vaca Muerta lies)... and the worry is that if licensing authority is appropriated by the feds, in the very worst case AEN's licences are lost. There is some talk of a "grandfather" compromise that will keep acreage already licensed under the existing regime ...this is all yet to play out......
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