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Member Info for steph

Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,689
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 41

Last Posted: Wed 14:36

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

9 Oct '14

Yes BKG or Berkeley homes. Sorry.

BKG are being very cautious about expanding volume. prefer to be a high margin low risk player. TEF is operating in a market where the existing players are unable or unwilling to ramp up supply to saturate the market cna compete with each other for market share. High margins for all London builders is the result. High prices for buyers the downside for London but that loss is our gain.
9 Oct '14

the difficulty you describe is why barriers to entry are high for the Uk sector and why small builders are non existant in London and the value add of a sophisticted site selection and planning team is crutial. Sounds like a pain but such troubles protect the london market from new entrants and preserve market share. TEF has pulled off a miracle to be a start up builder in London. It is really hard to get up to the volume they have but it gets easier from now on in. Critical mass. BKY is probably the ideal size for London and TEF is heading in that direction.
9 Oct '14

the profit gets buried in pipeline but also much gets buried a couple of years in advance of it actually occurring. That is the banks will lend TEF the money to complete on secure projected profit not necessarily actuals from current financial year. Thus the effect of projected windfall profit in the next 4 years is brought forward via a rapidly expanding pipeline without the normal share dilution it would require. This is a factor too sophisticated for the average analyst (really a detailed negotiation between TEF and the banks) and thus an opportunity for arbitrage for us.

By a wide margin I see no sector in the world capable of trippeling a share's SP over the next 4 years at such a low level of risk.

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