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Michael Masterman talks on WRES potential & Tungsten market

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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,820
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 25

Last Posted: Wed 07:52

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

10 Nov '16

Brendon Thomas MRICS,
Oakland Surveyors, Tower
Southwark/City, - Improved buyer demand
esp £500-700k but vendors still
reluctant to list.
10 Nov '16

Must say I am surprised there has not been a general market retrace due to a Trump win. I was expecting something half as sharp as the surprise Brexit vote which knocked 80 points off us in pretty quick order.

never-the-less no. It shows how little individual politicians affect the markets and how much structural changes and trends do. Brexit was a hit as it potentially tears up our trading relationships. Thump is not expected to have that depth of impact on the UK.

It was once said the Labour Party could nominate a monkey in certain constituencies and still get elected. Maybe the same applies to the USA as a whole. System stronger than the individual.

It will benefit London if US tightens up immigration more than us or the more liberal company heads of the new wave of software based services see a London hub as more reliable global HQ for product development and administration. I wish May was a liberal as Johnson is on high skilled immigration. She seems to be an immigration bean counter rather than a visionary who can make a case for quality skilled immigration persuasively.

One of the benefits of the common market is it gave our companies access to all EU skilled migrants in a stable long term way that could not be revered quickly by national legislation or administrative order. The very difficulty in doing so was a business advantage for London as well as a restraint on sovereignty. It gave our companies stability on immigrant policy New York does not have. US is a big labour market for skilled labour but increasingly the expertise the companies want in their HQ's and research centers is global. They willl go where it is easiest to recruit the highly skilled labour needed. This includes the labour already resident it the city or country but also the ability to bring in who they want.
9 Nov '16

global markets and futures including FTSE and DOW down about 5%.

Should be a funny day. Trump hopefully will say something in his victory speech that steadies the markets so could be a good buying opportunity before he does later in our trading day.
9 Nov '16

I hope I'm right and that a Trump win will just cause volatility rather than a crash that affects our TEF.

Should help London as jobs that might have been lost to New York due to Brexit will now stay put for 4 years.

We live in interesting times and the jobs impact of machine learning capabilities has not really started yet. How our societies can cope with 50% youth unemployment will be a real test.

I don't think the USA is structured or able to do that. The cohesive societies of Northern Europe and Japan will do better than most. UK might do really well in comparative terms but much can go wrong. Just depends on how we hang together. We could have done without the Brexit complication but there are deep UK strengths to fall back on.
8 Nov '16

yes as the evidence comes in the Brexit impact is more muted than first feared. Less price growth for the next 2 years to be sure but no evidence of nominal declines in house prices in TEF's patch that would really do damage to the existing broker forecasts for earnings and profits.

I have the view that even a Trump win will not cause a major market crash. There are many checks and balances. His only real power to do things that might hurt without congress and the house approving is start a war and he is probably less inclined to do that than Clinton. Turning down the temperature with Russia actually helpful to stability. Clinton is so desperate to be popular she will start any war that is polling well -and we know how well informed the US populace is about the consequences of starting a war so a dangerous combination.
6 Nov '16

While this group are pro brexit (and I am pro-remain) it is a useful set of information and legal opinions on the real impact. They argue with some credibility that the damage will be more limited than supposed by some economic reports that do not dive into the technicalities of how firms actually operate and offset regulatory hurdles.

The strange market repose to Brexit uncertainty may not be a calm before a storm after all but maybe an accurate prediction that ways will be found to retain business and financial service jobs in London post Brexit (which is where the cluster is and wants to be) and that the London jobs impact will be muted.

They do not explicitly say it will be fields of clover either but do make a fairly compelling case that is not Armageddon.

more evidence that Brexit is not a big enough set back to hurt TEF's business model or my property based East London investment strategy.
3 Nov '16

well odds of a hard exit now greatly reduced.

Will result in a really interesting parliamentary debate on who we are as a nation and what we want out of our international trade relationships.

To prevent a defeat on triggering article 50 May will need to promise credibly some form of soft orderly exit. Probably means laying out an immigration policy that can pass parliamentary scrutiny rather than partly political posturing on numbers.

I'm cheered. I am a remainer still but given we are probably leaving I want it to be as positive as possible That does not mean crashing out of the EU in a disorderly way as Fox and now Gove seem to want. It means laying out to Parliament a credible future EU and world relationship that might credibly gain EU approval -no doubt after nail biting negotiations against some self imposed deadline on us all.

EU procedures to insist on exiting before reentering in a new relationship not helpful. However if we want EU politicians to override that EU stubborn stupidity (article 50 and the process was always meant to be a suicide pill no nation in their right mind would swallow) we need to have something on the table that is 80% there in terms of what might get approved. Means we need to signal a freedom of movement compromise they can live with.
2 Nov '16

strange that.

Maybe increased health and safety scrutiny plays a role. Used to be common to have on site construction fatalities. Lost an uncle that way. Now a rarity. Full automation of some existing on site procedures should be much faster and safer.
2 Nov '16

a national audit report looked at the relative costs between prefab and on site and concluded that prefab was always more expensive. Counter instinctive and maybe if it were the mass market it might change a bit but imagined savings are just that. International studies produce the same result from Mexico to Eastern Europe.

On site automation is a different matter. Combining the efficiencies of some automation with on site efficiencies is truly promising. They may not be radically different from human constructed buildings but might have radically different cost and time factors. Part of a continuum of construction efficiencies in play for decades. . Batch your cement on site in mini plants saves money and gains flexibility over trucking finished cement mix time sensitive and heavy with water in. Increasingly mechanized lifting on site is saving labour cost. Welding is currently faster and better by robot and has been the standard methodology for large pipelines for over a decade. In a couple of decades all formwork, bricklaying, plumbing electrical etc will be automated on site assembly. The change is accelerating.
2 Nov '16

thanks for the bricklaying article. I am looking at the impact of automation generally. Building costs will go down in the next decades and thus be more controllable as a percentage of revenue. It will become cheaper to build in awkward infill sites that are close to other buildings or require underground parking, services, access and utilities. It also means design can be more creative and bespoke cost effectively. At the unit level you will not only order the finish of countertops, paint and floor as you can now but will determine the position of partition walls at point of purchase.

Profit will increasingly be driven wholly by market conditions, land cost and financing, the cost of materials, and planning permissions. TEF excels at all. The value add will increasingly be choosing where and what to build and for those choices to be complex enough and dependent enough on human to human decision making to deter competitors piling into the same patch. In essence a knowledge network of human relationships with owners, investors and regulators all in play.

You do not want to be left competing on price within an automated building sector on sites that can be purchased at auction. Profit margins will be driven down significantly for London builders in that scenario. A good thing to do from a planning and housing policy point of view but a bad thing to do from our selfish investors point of view -protective as we are of our little but growing TEF baby. Roll on 20 quid per share within 10 years.


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