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Member Info for steph

Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,645
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 37

Last Posted: Today 16:13

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

25 Aug '14

yes bitter experience. All others don't work for me -especially exploration companies- acting on rumors already in the public realm. SO unless one has a geologist as a brother who is at the well head best to stay away. I once invested in a basket of 10 oil and mining companies all tipped by IC. I thought even if 2 or 3 went bad the rest would make for a good average. Not so. I got out after mild losses and that was the best move as they continued down except for 2 or 3 who did not go up enough to compensate.

TEF is the most transparent risk play on the market for the potential gains on offer. I think it is a value play on the tendency of the market to under weigh forward results beyond a 12 month period. Thus arbitrage for the savvy.

Also the UK builders market is very complex with delayed profit and high barriers to entry compared to most stock so arbitrage for those of us with some professional involvement in the sector. What is frightening to most is normal for the business model of UK builders. Also 2008 scared many investors off the sector’s business model -I think more than deserved going forward so more arbitrage.
24 Aug '14

I agree. For a 5 year horizen there is no other option at this relatively low risk level to get 20%+ returns per annum. I'm suprised bigger players than us don't get it and pile in until TEF has a higher P/E that better reflects the future potential but more fool them. For me much easier than a new buy to let. I hate fixing someone else's toilet and it takes months to get out if I want to. Besides the yield on buy to lets in the better bits of london is now only 3 or 4% so an uncertian bet on capital gains from here. TEF on the other hand makes good money and expands volume going forward even with a stable market with zero house price inflation. I hate oil exploraiton companies. Just gambeling on rumours. Nope TEF for me.
24 Aug '14

we will all need to exit the train at some point. For me my ISA holding for TEF is very long term -maybe 20 years. The rest is subject to price points and my personal needs. 5 quid will be nice for selling a chunk of it but given I think this is heading for 10 quid in 4or 5 years will depend on whether there is an alternative wish as much upside. Seems silly to earn 2 or 3% on a savings bond when one thinks within 3 years of this hitting 5 quid it will likely hit 10.
24 Aug '14

don't forget updates coming that wil include stratosphere. And we have been well above 350 during last years updates on less good news.

Impossible to know but I suspect no major retrace at these levels. Momentum combined wiht future updates. Plus this dip and rise has acted as a tree shake. If any big seller who was selling sub 300 had not dumped the remainder they wanted to dump by now when they suddenly could get plus 320 they are likely to be a medium term hold now.

I doubt if we picked up short term speculators below 300 who will dump at 350. I don't think this share is closely watched by that sector. It is mainly value investors which before November last gave us a stablity the other builders did not have. We were less volitile not more. After ths tree shake hopefully wil return to that lower volitility on our way steadely to 10 quid in 4 or 5 years time on the back of volume increases to 1,000 to 1,500 units/year with good but not necessarily spectacular margins 4 or 5 years out. In the next 3 years we will have spectacular margins but that simply funds the expansion so the total profit is sustainable long term. Once the market accepts that we will start trading at a higher P/E.

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