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Member Info for steph


Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,651
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 26

Last Posted: Tue 09:39


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




30 Aug '14


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11065125/US-taxes-are-far-too-high-no-wonder-companies-are-fleeing.html

sounds far away but corporate tax policy influences job creation in London big time. London is in the sweetest of sweet spots being the world’s first global capital center (severely damaged by WW2 but not extinguished) and now reaping the rewards of globalization for the entertainment, accounting, banking, insurance and other business and financial service sectors.

I’ve got all of my modest investments in the London property market one way or another (TEF and 3 buy to lets) . No better place to be. Investment opportunities in the BRICKS and middle east can sit on the shelf as far as I am concerned. Best and safest opportunities lie closest to home.

Double or triple my money (even assuming no leverage) in 5 years with low risk. Just nothing like it out there. What is the risk of TEF's SP being just 3.30 in november 2019? Almost zero and yet we wil get divis' above the best bank rate along the way. What is the risk of TEF's SP being below 3.30 in november 2019 in such a way that we lose money? Must be less than 1%. The risk reward ratio is thus unlike anything in the market. Unique histrorical circumstances and a good company to fill the niche created.
30 Aug '14


http://www.investegate.co.uk/telford-homes-plc/rns/trading-update/201310150700104627Q/

nature of last trading update issued on 15th of October 2013. Fairly high level update (detials of profit and divi in NOvember 30 half year update) but does give details of sales which will help a lot and also says if half yearly profits will lbe ahead of market expectations (i other words ahead of TEF"s own deflated profit goals it has traditionally exceeded).

We drifted down a bit on very light volume. I suspect we will be in this traiding range for the month of september and drift up towards update. Never know with this stock and might jump up early.

Suprised wars all over the place have not had an impact yet on the markets. A Marxist would say "of course" that happens. Perfect storm for capitalists like us is for low level conflict somewhere but not in our backyard that keeps spending high, restive publics in line and interest rates low.

QE ECB rumours holding up the market. Nobody wants to short the index with the potential of shock and awe on ECB QE out there. Dragi probabably preferes the rumour to the fact but he will act if need be. Even the germans seem resigned to the legality of QE so long as it is evenly applied to bond purchases in proportion to economic weight within eurozone and not who needs it most.
28 Aug '14


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/11061050/House-price-predictions-up-9pc-this-year-6pc-in-2015-if-rates-dont-rise-too-quickly.html

windfall profits for some years to come for sector and TEF. Price rises now feed through into windfall profit 4 to 5 years later as the units move from site purchase to completion.
27 Aug '14


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11056099/Another-surge-in-house-prices-is-just-around-the-corner.html

If a 22% rise over 4 years for London is considered "cooling" what next? Windfall profits for the period 2018 to 2022 in addition to the period we are now in I think as these future inflation rises get added to the inflation neutral profit assumptions of the TEF team when they agree a project.

smud thanks for the link. I think we have the best stock in the best sector in the best OECD economy. I'm nearly 100% in with no significant other stock holdings. Why bother. Maybe I'll get my 10 quid by november 2018.
26 Aug '14


I have a feeling we will fly this week and get up to and maybe get through 3.50. No evidence at all just a gut feeling. Dragi helping a bit but mainly TEF sales over the next month will nail the profit forcasts and probably result in a profit upgrade in October.


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