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Share Views Episode 4: Mid & Large Caps with Chris Bailey


Member Info for steph


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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,678
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 42

Last Posted: Thu 13:57


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




3 Jul '16

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

We really are boxed in a corner. A hard exit looking really possible. I wanted Boris for Tory lead only because he was such a flexible bastard he could have found a way to u turn when needed.

I very much doubt if half of the Brexit vote wanted a hard exit at all and many of the rest of the Brexit vote who thought they did want a hard exit did not realize the sacrifice it really entailed. They were promised unicorns and candy homes and voted accordingly. The two leading Tories who gave such credibility to the fairy tale benefits of Brexit. are only 10 days out quite discredited. Complete shambles. Nation has been let down by mice.

I'd bet if the referendum was rerun next week it would be for remain by a large and growing margin. By this tie next year it will be so strong that no sensible politician will do it. Please don't push the 50 button. It gives our negotiating enemies enormous power over us -the exact opposite of "taking back control". Boris is an idiot.
3 Jul '16

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/tory-leadership-andrea-leadsom-says-she-can-be-the-new-margaret/

oh great even the weasel Gove is not in favour of doing that. With the absence of the Labour party on the pitch we are shifting fast to the more extreme Eurosceptic right as our political center of gravity.

May is right -the referendum asked for less immigration but really did not give much guidance on how best to achieve that. Triggering article 50 does not have the consent of the population and should be done by a strong majority in Parliament after a long debate. Very risky to trigger article 50 with only whipped Tories and the single UKIP member voting for it. It would lack legitimacy.
3 Jul '16

Yes according the EU chief negotiators proposed timetable it will be 10 years of uncertainty with a dip into WTO rules 2 years out. If cooler heads prevail we can negotiate a new arrangement before triggering article 50. It is one almighty balls up. UK was a point of economic and democratic stability in an unstable world now we are the ones causing the instability as far as South Africa -which Barclays head may lose .9% of GDP due to Brexit. I can't see an upside. It is just damage limitation now.

A faint upside is that this has forced us to confront our demons and challenge a lot of false assumptions and Murdock press drivel. A stronger better informed public will scrutinize and consent to any future arrangements.
3 Jul '16

it could have been so much worse for TEF. A placing in process. Less forward sales. A business strategy that rear loaded profit realization in the hopes of price inflation. No PRS sales (rents still predicted to go up so a great area). Weaker management. Less diversity of client base. More prime sites rather than near prime. Forays into more fragile housing markets than East London which will remain undersupplied for some time Brexit or not. No infrastructure boosts to TEF patch such as Cross rail yet to come.

If one is in the market at all TEF is still not a bad place to be.

Stability can come in a heartbeat if the winner of the conservative contest lays out a negotiating strategy that seeks a Norway Plus option and states clearly that they will not invoke article 50 until it is possible to transition from our current arrangements seamlessly to that. A firm "No" to a possible period under WTO rules.

Some EU chiefs will huff and puff and demand we first trigger article 50 but they will come round to that. Article 50 was never intended for soft exit of a large state that wants a close negotiated relationship. It is not fit for the purpose we all find ourselves in.

Of course there are Brexeteers who want a hard exit but they are in a minority in Parliament, the public and even within the conservative party. Lib dems surging right now and in any new Parliament will be a significant force. Can’t see the conservatives with a majority next time. For Europhiles and Brexeteers alike the lack of a exit plan is a scandal. Conservative will get rightly blamed for economic and social instability. UKIP may pick up seats but I can't see UKIP with many -unless of course the Labour Party completely collapses. It won't even if it has to split. I expect the Corbyites and the rest will reach a deal under a new center left leader. probably pretty quickly which will help stability and help stop a hard exit.

Then the market can feel reassured that the worst that can happen with regards to our trading relationship with the EU is a Norway plus. If that is not negotiated to an acceptable conclusion the safety net of just staying in under current arrangements will be the default position for the foreseeable future. Probably need a second referendum to reject a half baked Norway option with a choice between status quo and that. Indeed it may be that a second referendum votes to stay in reactive the Cameron reforms if they are not overtaken by EU reforms themselves by then.
3 Jul '16

I don't think the impact of Brexit will affect TEF's product too much in the short and medium term. It is more likely we will have a small recession later this year or next but a recession is pretty much priced in already for all the builders. They will roar when we start to come out of it as the markets will assume the overdue recession is over. All within my 5 year time horizon to see 10 quid (although with Brexit maybe just 8 to 9 now or an extra 1 or 2 years out to get 10 quid).

IN the long run London may not grow as it was and that affects the long term business model for TEF. We were never trading on a P/E ratio to reflect the glowing long term future for TEF so the removal of a bit of that future will not have a short or medium term affect on SP or EPS. It does affect a bit my hopes for my isa value in 20 years time but I don't know a better investment for my ISA even so. Anyhow it is much to early to say without knowing our future trading relationship with the EU. A Norway option that protects the financial services cluster we have would make only a marginal difference. Even a Full Norway option will still slow down London growth a bit as it is easer to step out of a Norway option to WTO than to step out of the EU to a Norway option -as we are finding out. SO maybe a bit of uncertainty for corporate HQ's even if they have all they need.

I'm a Labour party member, was sympathetic to Corby's wing and I'm embarrassed. Aids saying he should not met with his deputy one on one due to fears of "bullying" and making the health excuse of a 70 year old COrbyn is actually 67) is this ridiculous student "safe place" thinking (which I'm not sure is really appropriate in the worlds top universities) but for a leader who might be prime minster is beneath contempt.

How can our prime minster ever go toe to toe with the world's dictators and strong men/women to further the interests of the UK, the global environment and world peace if he can't go toe to toe with his own deputy?

We are in the middle of a constructional crisis and we are led by mice.

Also the referendum throws up a constitutional crisis with no obvious solution in site. The legitimacy of the vote based on so many false promises will rapidly deteriorate as opinion polls swing against implementation.

Mechanistic implementation by the right wing of the Conservative Party when the public themselves feel misled by the referendum leaders will lead to more disillusionment with politics rather than less. It will seem like a plot by some Tories and a foreign owned section of the "free" press to harm the UK and benefit the USA.

Referendum should be reserved for two viable choices broadly understood by the public -Scotland sort of worked. The rest should be left to our parliamentary democracy. The legitimacy and program of any government -except UKIP- to now take us out of the EU should be tested at the polls. No party ran on that t
30 Jun '16

TEF has gained on BDEV for reasons of differential market decline but interesting never the less.

IN September 2015 BDEV was soaring and hit 655 when on the same day TEF was struggling at 4.00 having come down from 4.93 in May 2015.

since then they have aligned peak to trough. TEF at 3.00 -awful as that is- is 60% of it's 2015 peak. BDEV is at 3.97 and also 60% of it's 2015 peak.

I suspect TEF is a better defensive stock for uncertain times. TEF's business model got it through the last great recession without a big loss or write off of it's land bank. Even though smaller than BDEV it has a more diversified client base, more forward sales locked in, closer relations to the Housing associations who will be able to trade through a recession and the almost limitless ability of the diverse London economy to generate demand in it's near prime patch no matter what the external climate.

3 days of high volume. I suspect our boost from a recent low of 2.60 is the shorts closing. Be interesting to see the old mutual stats for last 5 days. Last one published was 16 June.
30 Jun '16

My God like ferrets in a sack.

To double cross a friend once a year is cynical. To double cross two friends in the same year is ...

None of them are what we need to take us out of this mess. Labour not providing any scrutiny at all never mind an alternative government if this one should fail.

For all his bluster I'd prefer Johnson. Best chance of recognizing that what was promised was undeliverable and to act in the national interest by being flexible in the negotiations -perhaps using a second referendum as a tool to make a U turn as needed.
29 Jun '16

It was right that Cameron resigned to make way for some true believers. honorable compared to Corbyn who thinks himself a man of principal.

Osborn saying bluntly that a credible plan about what to do with a leave vote was not the governments responsibility is scandalous. Abdication of responsibility for the question they chose to put. Shows it was always a cynical ploy for party political reasons and not even meant to be a genuine choice for the UK public.
29 Jun '16

yes when we are agonizing on TEF it goes down. the bigger the detour the more it goes up.

I don't know Eagle and don't know if she can be an Atlee. Neither classically handsome or classically beautiful so something in common. Working class background and Oxford (First I think) without it seeming to go to her head. At the moment anything is better than Corbyn.
This is the opportunity of the decade for the Labour party to reestablish it’s spirit and purpose and by so doing serve the national interest in these constitutionally tricky times. I suspect you will see the Labour party roar with a new leader. It sleepwalked through the referendum campaign. I think the public are pretty ****ed off with the mess the Tories have just sprung on the UK. Unforced errors.

Labour with a chance of wining the election can hold the Tories to account and hoist Boris on his own petard.
29 Jun '16

Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson both came out well in this. Ironically both women and both Scottish.

I believed people would vote with their wallets in the booth but sadly no.

I suspect when it is clear what alternative to membership is really on offer the leave vote (as expressed in future polling) will drop substantially undermining the credibility of the referendum itself. It will start to look like a vote in favour of false and undeliverable promises.

Early days yet and all politicians including the lib dems say we must respect the referendum but wait until public option shifts. Politicians will not commit electoral suicide to enforce a referendum result that is falling out of favour with the same electorate. They will invent some excuse and U turn as it suites them. That is parliamentary democracy. It is not a US or Swiss referendum that has court enforcement.


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