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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,795
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 2

Last Posted: 1 Feb '17

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

13 Oct '16

Countryside and Telford enjoy positive post-referendum trading

Countryside Properties and Telford Homes are the latest housebuilders to report good trading conditions following the result of the EU referendum.

Countryside, which specialises in place making and urban regeneration, said that trading over the summer months into the autumn selling season had been “robust”. During the three months following the referendum, it witnessed an initial increase in cancellation rates, “but this has been more than offset by trading since”.

Giving an update to the city, Countryside said that for the year ending September 30 2016, total completions rose 12% to 2,657 units against the equivalent period in 2015.

Its Housebuilding division “performed well,” with total completions increasing 20% to 783 homes. Private average selling prices increased 14% to £667,000.

Countryside said that its premium brand Millgate continued to progress well despite the slower market for higher value product. This achieved 81 private completions against 52 in 2015 at a private ASP of £1.3 million, the same as last year.

And Countryside’s Partnerships division saw its total completions climb 10% to 1,874 homes. Its private ASP jumped 27% to £307,000.

The housebuilder said it was entering 2017 with strong outlet growth and a “record” private forward order book, rising 64% to £225.4 million, “which leaves us well positioned to meet market expectations”.

Meanwhile, London-based Telford Homes said that, following the outcome of June’s referendum, it had not revised its growth targets. It said that it was confident about the current and future market in non-prime areas of London thanks to the capital’s significant supply and demand imbalance.

It added that since the start of September, it had seen an increased number of reservations.

Telford built fewer homes during the six months ending September 30 2016 compared to last year. This was a result of development timings, it explained. A “substantially higher proportion of profits” was expected in the second half.

The company reported a forward order book exceeding £650 million of revenue.

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
13 Oct '16

How weird to have sub 300 after a great update.

Every time David Davis opens his mouth the UK housing sector drops. If we planted a GPS tracker up his a.. and got it to beep every time he got near the dispatch box, TV or radio station we could make good money shorting TEF and then buying back soon afterwards.

I am afraid we are in the hands of politicians (and not our finest I may add) until this Brexit fiasco is settled into whatever new relationship we will have. May seems to me to be out of her depth without a clue how to handle the democratic contradiction of wanting to play hardball to get the best deal and parliamentary accountability -never mind that to the nation on what Brexit means. Her Brexit ministers -who did not cut the mustard before Brexit for a senior post- are all genuine liabilities to us all. Loose cannons in a ship without a rudder.

Probably take 5 years for the uncertainty to really be solved. This farce will hold back TEF from achieving fair value for a long time. Still the lag is priced in for TEF (and I suspect the sector) and on improving actual results we will go up from here. If you can tolerate the lag great place to invest. We will be 10 quid and eventually 20. Just will take an extra 2 years to get there.
13 Oct '16

Brendon Thomas MRICS,
Oakland Surveyors, Tower
Southwark, Mid-lower end of the
market fairly buoyant, better
than July. Decent buyer interest,
average stock levels.
11 Oct '16

quite right. I type these blogs pretty quickly so no editing and a distant memory of laurel and Hardy to go on. Overreach this time.

I've never seen TEF so undervalued since the short sharp dip to 60p in 2012. I don't believe we are heading for a major recession that will drop nominal prices by any significant amount. As TEF's forward projections do not have any house price inflation built in surely the forecasts are relatively safe -not to mention the forward sales on many. EPS and divi yield will get to silly numbers in 3 years time unless this SP starts to move upwards. Sentiment can not trump results forever.
10 Oct '16

soon it will be "leave it to the great grandkids" as they only ones with a chance of building up the deposit needed.

Our Nigel Farrange over there Trump. The range of credible characters who campaigned openly for a hard exit is a narrow one indeed. The mainstream ones like Boris said "we can have our cake and eat it too" meaning we can have all the benefits of a soft exit and none of the current obligations. Incredibly dishonest.

Whole thing incredibly stupid. Referendum should have also asked if we left EU did we want to stay in common market or come completely out. As it didn't there should be a second referendum on the terms -or at least cross party parliamentary support. There was not remotely a electoral majority for a hard exit. UKIP was the only group honest enough to campaign for a hard exit and they are a bunch of Trump loving nutcases with not a single seat in parliament -yet it is UKIP policy we are imposing on the UK.

Did we really vote to free ourselves from Brussels only to be under the thumb of that bunch of incompetent nutcases without even parliamentary scrutiny and a parliamentary vote to constrain them.

As Laurel would have said "what a mess we are in Stan"
9 Oct '16

Trump is a black swan for us. Election could cause worldwide markets to wobble -maybe even trigger a major correction. Clinton getting elected is probably priced in. Every trip up he does helps as odds get longer. So good news he is on record for being an even bigger ass...e than first thought.
6 Oct '16

never thought I'd hear you lamenting the absence of Josh.

I like contrarian views as long as they are delivered politely. Josh did get a bit heavy at times but was useful never-the-less.

Our SP is so beaten up right now from May 2015 it is hard to find a contrarian who knows the sector and share. Always the world will end doom and gloomers and as we go into recessions every 10 year or so every 10 years or so they are right. Trouble is most of the time they are wrong and it would be foolish to follow their advice year on year.

I am particular scornful of the lazy analysis that look at multiples of earnings and say we are overvalued. So many other factors to take into account not the least interest rates. It is like saying that as gold exceeds historic multiples of earnings per once demand will go down as an ounce of gold becomes "unaffordable". The precise opposite happens in practice.
5 Oct '16

And the former Citibank economist will say the housing market “may well be less vulnerable to heightened uncertainty than the MPC’s August forecast implies, especially given the substantial backlog in housing demand and record-low level of mortgage rates.”
3 Oct '16

looks like we are heading for a hard and not soft exit. market has therefore correctly priced that in for our sector. Anyhow at least we will not get hard brexit market dips now. All priced in and now we know no short term big shock. will be a long term economic underperformance against the pre Brexit benchmark instead -but nothing of the scale to worry TEF investors and no recession it seems.

Of course could be a surprise now on the upside. all this hard talk could be a way of making the UK sound not desperate for Common market access and thus able to get more of it for less concessions on immigration than otherwise might be the case. Can't see the conservative party really turning a deaf ear to the city. They are one and the same lot.

Of course hard talk within Germany led to WW1 once Bismarck's diplomatic skills faded and the gung ho military types had the Kaiser's ear. Hard talk can backfire. Let's hope our 3 Brexiteers (maybe 4 including May) are luckier.
3 Oct '16

Record year for CALA

CALA has announced a record financial year with profits topping £60 million for the first time in the group’s history.

In the year to the end of June CALA completed 1,151 homes compared to 993 the year before with turnover rising 15% to £587.1 million.

CALA ceo Alan Brown said the firm remains on course to deliver 2,000 to 2,500 homes a year within the next four years. “Our growth strategy remains to focus on driving operational efficiency improvements throughout the group as we continue scaling up our divisions,” he said. “Alongside this, we continue to invest in building the size and capability of our teams, welcoming almost 100 additional members of staff to the business including our ongoing increase of apprenticeship and graduate recruitment initiatives across the group.”

Brown also said trading has been positive since the EU referendum. “In the 13 weeks since the EU referendum result, and although still early days, the group saw positive trading with total enquiry levels and reservation rates up 9% and 46% respectively while website users have also risen by 32% on the equivalent period last year. Sales prices have also remained stable while cancellation rates have actually reduced slightly.”

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit

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