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Member Info for steph


Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,861
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 29

Last Posted: 12 Apr '15


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




18 Mar '15


well the last share offer brought some rubbish in but at least TEF is raising funds going forward without recourse to share dilution. Once bitten twice shy.

If TEF ever again do issue shares they should give all the holders an equal opportunity to top up. There was no merit in only allowing institutional investors to buy. It did not produce a more stable share holding at all. Us minnows are better long term value holders than marriage's fund. We were treated badly on that one.

Still I expect a big SP boost on the update and finals. maybe getting us back to where we should be. Translating fundamentals and future potential into a target SP is not mathematical on the ground but surely we are now well undervalued by all measures. I hope we get 3 clear broker upgrades to circa 5 quid and a refreshed tip from Jim. That should pull us up to 4.50 by end of May with the ability to hold the new range before further good news in October/November puts us to 5 quid.

The real fireworks will occur I suppose May 2016 when the big projected profits start to be booked and the forward 12 month earnings estimates start to go skywards. Then our current trading range will be well and truly forgotten.

17 Mar '15


wide spread means no big buyer or seller.

Marriage is a wild card for us. At some point he will stop selling and either wait for 5 quid or be out. Maybe that moment 9not needing to sell) is now. We just don't know and his pattern seems to follow forced redemptions which depends on his managers whim.
15 Mar '15


http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21645735-david-camerons-housing-policies-are-all-posturing-weak-foundations

Nobody is going to tackle the housing shortage seriously. This means high profits for the existing London based builders who can find brownfield sites through partnerships for a couple of decades while London grows. Step forward my TEF.

Sad but TEF and London facing part of the sector will have great stability and growth prospects for a long time. One for the million pound ISA.

Personally I would not trust housing markets outside the SE for long term growth. The jobs of the future are coming to London (plus of course Cambridge, Oxford, and London commute territory, etc) not the midlands, the north or the west. Edinburgh might be an exception as might some bits of the UK with strong local University R&D clusters that might grow but all outside London is risky in the longer term.

Watch out for further job losses in any form of manufacturing as automation guts them further. Need to be where the apps and business plans are written and financed and not where the widgets are actually made or warehoused.
13 Mar '15


I like your slow and steady faith but one day this share will surprise on the upside and a year or two's worth of gains will be made a a short period of weeks. We seem to move in fits and starts. A bit like teutonic plates. Pressure builds up and then an earthquake. I think this April May period will be one of those. FTSE near a high, Sector at a high, 10 year bonds for Italy and Spain at near 1% which indicates printed euro money has no good place to go. It is good times and we are due significant catch up as we are a value share in a frothy market.


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