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Member Info for steph


Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,918
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 41

Last Posted: Thu 09:42


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




9 May '15


well spotted superdan . thanks.

May I be permitted a quick self congratulation on the thesis that the cons would outperform the polls which I posted several times. Reading the mind of undecidedes not easy. Each election unique in the way they split. My “tip” -if one can put it as strong as that- was worth a quick 5% for any who followed it. London builders should do particularly well on election results going forward. BKY was up 9% on the news and was up 13% at one point. TEF will benefit as much but is a slower burn.

Still I did not foresee the full extent of the lib dem collapse. Polls suggested their support was more fickle and less committed so not only did they not get many undecided but I think they lost some of the declared support in the booths.

Have a good lucrative weekend all.

7 May '15


http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/polls/final-general-election-2015-poll

In the full and final ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election, Labour edge into a 1-point lead compared to yesterday, with the parties holding its 35% share but the Tories dropping back 1-point.. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:



Conservative 34% (-1)

Labour 35% (+3)

Liberal Democrat 9% (nc)

UKIP 11% (-2)

Green 4% (-1)

SNP 5% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)

Other 1% (nc)



All the final polls are now in, and if any late swing has been present nearly all suggest Labour to have been the beneficiary (to this point).



This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:



Conservative 35%

Labour 32%

Liberal Democrats 14%

UKIP 10%

Others 10%
7 May '15


TEF holding up well during a FTSE and sector retrace. If we wake up to a con/lib or con government whole market will jump. TEF will have a great base for May 27th finals.

Longer run the EU referendum will upset markets -but not this year.
7 May '15


This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:



Conservative 35%

Labour 32%

Liberal Democrats 14%

UKIP 10%

Others 10%
7 May '15


hope you have regained the losses since with TEF giving you a helping hand on that. I lost all my stake money in the August 2011 dip. I feel I am a smarter but more cautious investor since.

vote today and the effect on sector and TEF is strong. A con win or coalition with lib dems will see the sector bounce back from the recent 10% retrace and with our finals on the 27th of May should be happy days for TEF.

Conversely a Labour win will see a lot of market volatility. In the end in a few months it will settle. Labour is not a radical as they make out. Most of it was wolf whistles to their core supporters amplified by a largely anti labour and hysterical press. You would think we were voting to have a radical left wing government in Labour rather than the timid shadow of itself it really is.

In spite of my investments which would get hurt I’d vote for a strong left wing labour government with a cohesive set of polices that turn out to be popular and thus stand a decent chance of not being reversed by future governments. However that package requires sound finances, a realistic view of how wealth is created and a vision of how Britain can be the best place to live in 2050 and beyond.

That vision also requires an immigration policy to be loose for young highly skilled workers and high value persons and very tight for any that will be a net loss to the exchequer. No party has that yet. I hate Teresa May. Boris seems to get it though.

Indeed the more successful the UK economy is and the higher the standard of living for those near the bottom (my special concern) the tighter immigration has to be for immigrants near the bottom. We can’t raise the income for our working poor (and those who genuinely need to be on benefits) without restricting international access to eligibility. We also can’t become the global hub for the new post industrial economy without a loose immigration policy for the highly skilled and moneyed. It is just simple math.

Miliband is a long way from my vision for the left. I don’t think he has the real world background and the brains. Smart but in a smarty pants rather than strategic sort of way. No Churchill he.

I expect Labour will “review” and tighten up the non dom stuff rather than abolish it so will have less impact than predicted. They will caveat the mansion tax so that below 3m will be largely unaffected. Anyway UK property taxes are a lot less than our international competitors (ask any American what they pay on the same value property and it will shock you) so raising property tax by a different name is hardly some radical initiative. Stupidist thing Labour will do is raise the top oncome tax rate to 50% but even there Balls talked about that being temporary. He knows it is daft.

Anyhow interesting election.


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