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Member Info for steph

Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,091
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 58

Last Posted: Today 11:49

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

19 Aug '15

I like all three of those. Fit my criteria of mid sized builders with real growth potential. Just not ready to transfer from TEF at current levels.

I worked professionally with St Modwens some time ago and was impressed although those I worked with are probably elsewhere now.

Part of my reluctance to diversity towards these three is my detailed knowledge of the patch TEF operate. You can’t catch up on years of professional work in a geographic area with a bit of on line research. I am convinced London’s regeneration bits will outperform all other UK markets all in the medium term. Thus TEF for me.

Barriers to entry can mean in London higher sustained margins. Competition eats into the mid sized regionals builders margins as competition for sites heats up but in future without sharp house price inflation to pass on those increasing acquisition costs.

I still think TEF will outperfrom them all. Just an opinon though.

who was the poster that got barred by the way?

19 Aug '15

yes if one thinks that the sector is becoming full priced relative underperformance might be a positive so long as there is no fundemental reason for that -just the market not pricing TEF's forward growth prospects properly.

I like the fact that the FTSE is down below 6,500. I don't thnk 6,500 is very demanding. GIves it room to go up and a lower risk of further declines that would tend to pull the sector down with it.

Generally I'd stay out of US index and China. EU and UK still ok in terms of P/E. Hard to say what sector to invest in. I think home builders will have a good 5 years, maybe a good 10 years and there will be capital growth of the SP's but it will now be a more modest affair of 5 to 10% per year. Few can double or triple from here in that same period except TEF.

I think there has been a polarization in the sector. the tiddler builders are declining and the big boys quite happy to sit on existing volumes and go for margins rather than market share. THus they are at new highs often on lower volume. TEF has forgone margins first to survive the crash relatively unscathed and then to grow. It will get rewarded in it's SP later. Delayed gratification.
19 Aug '15

a shorter might have a vested interest.

Josh claims he has a moderate long term holing in TEF and the bulk in others. Perhaps he wants to answer his own questions about the ideal mix by debating with us.

Also the Bovis board is sparce and boring. Maybe just better for him to post where he/she gets a reaction and some additional info.

I feel the sector is more or less fully priced. Only a rapidly growing company within the sector will deliver significant sp growth now. Step forward TEF.
19 Aug '15

I am inclined to agree. While a contrarian view is helpful once in a while to keep us on our toes it gets a bit tiring if too often. This chat is mainly for TEF investors and is about looking at TEF specific pros and cons and progress. Pro Bovis comments –while helpful as a comparison on occasion -best left on the BOVIS chat site if made too often. That’s why there are share specific chat rooms on the LSE rather than a general combined chat.

The die is set for me. I am not going to diversify into other builders unless TEF is taken over or until I get my 10 quid. Even at 10 quid I may chose not to diversify.

Josh will call me a fool but I feel I am a well informed fool and I have logical reasons for concentrating my holding in TEF (area of operation, business model, partnerships, crossrail, regeneration patches, London economy, difficulty of entry, management skills, only small UK builder with a loyal foreign clientele, risk sharing with housing associations, unusual scope for expansion, track record of moving upmarket and increasing volume, etc). In time these comparative advantages will come out in the SP.

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