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Caps Lock on… DAVID LENIGAS on this week’s Share Views!! Watch here

Share Views Episode 10 - DAVID LENIGAS talks Gatwick Gusher and AAAP


Member Info for steph


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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,722
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 42

Last Posted: Today 08:48


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




17 Aug '16

I love east London from a cultural point of view, as place I most want to live against any in the world, as a place I want my kids to grow up in and due to that as an investment opportunity as well.

while there are many ways to financially bet on East London TEF encapsulates the business opportunity best all in one place. I'm expecting a 20% plus return into the foreseeable future.

Brexit, Labour party or any other hit to East London rising I agree are not big enough to really reverse the rise -just slow it a bit. There was a terrible decline of East London post war with the docks employment plummeting and Victorian neighborhoods designed for the middle income being cut up into small flats many for social rental for a workless population. Transport links were focused to transport dock workers short distances to industrial employment and not medium distances to London's center to access business and financial service jobs.

this has been changing fairly rapidly ever since the LDDC was formed in the early 80's. Canary Wharf after initial market hesitate is a roaring success with jubilee line extension and DLR now carrying massive passenger numbers, Crossrail will be the jewel in the crown for east London but there are many smaller improvements that all add up to a step change.
17 Aug '16

thanks

focus back to the guerilla war of the micro. Barriers to entry mean that site assembly, financing and marketing should not be easy and TEF's management bring significant value add to the battle.

My position is that the government will not do something stupid with Brexit and that the TEF predictions of future profits will come about. The main difference will be that windfall will be less that it might have been.

Labour's Owen high taxes on high earners probably more of a risk to TEF's patch than May's brexit negotiations.

Vaguely possible that a Owen led Labour party might find it's way to power and actually do what he is saying. Aggressive infrastructure fund would help (although infrastructure to help TEF's patch already funded and in place or under construction) but high tax might discourage growth and in that mood more wacks on stamp and capital gains possible. Corbyn is unelectable so the market seems to ignore what he says. Might not be the case with a nearly equally left wing Owen. Corby gains a grassroots support partly because he is the opposite to Blair. Sitting on the floor of the train rather than upgrade to fist while Blair flies about in his private jet trading on his "public service" is a contrast that wins Corbyn many votes in spite of his gross incompetence.

whole party should denounce Blair's extravagance and strip him of membership for behavior "unbecoming of a Labour leader". No wonder nobody trusts the motivation of his supporters. They think it is all about individually wanting to get rich and famous rather than public service. Discredits sensible MP's who are advocating market friendly solutions.
17 Aug '16

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/britain-could-have-special-relationship-with-eu-after-brexit-say/

As difficult to predict as it is I think there is -at least in the UK- a strong plurality of votes and desire both in the electorate at large and within the conservative PCP for a relatively close relationship with the EU. Something in-between what Cameron negotiated and the Norway option. Norway + or "membership -

How to get there with something that will be similar to our current lack of immigration restrictions from the EU, or any of the 27 EU members vetoing it and without passing through a painful period of WTO rules is the variables.

Personally I'd declare that article 50 was a suicide pill designed for a nation wanting a hard exit and not for a big nation like the UK wanting a close relationship that is also desired by all parties. Few EU countries gain enough from a hard UK exit to really want it. France stands to gain the most but even there I can't see UK based banks camping out at La Defence enough to compensate for lost trade with the UK. They are more likely to scatter into various EU capitals -but especially Berlin and Frankfurt- and be no concentrated benefit to any EU member.

Besides in the post industrial economy the paris-london axis for business services, culture and creative industry and ICT is on the whole complementary rather than competitive and takes on New York and others almost as twin cities. There is all to play for. Requires. though, as much free movement of goods, people and services as possible.

Paris would be on the edge without London. BY train just 2 hours and 10 minutes apart and that can drop further with some new rail technology (literally in the pipeline). Can nearly have a morning meeting in one and get back using Eurostar or city airport (which is expanding) but a bit painful. The distance between Paris and London is roughly half the San Fran to LA distance -twice the viability for any new hyperloop type service (basically run the train all the way in a tube and pump all or part of the air out to reduce friction). Hyperloop journey times London to Paris can easily be just 20 minutes with a much lower energy cost per passenger than existing trains or planes (the energy gain of lower air pressure greatly outweighs the energy cost of maintaining the tube at a near vacuum).

http://www.slideshare.net/stinsondesign/hyper-loop/24-ENERGY_COST_PER_PASSENGER_FOR

While the full whack of all that spatial and economic geography is 50 years out markets react to long term trends as these are preceded by "confidence", corporate actions on HQ's, staff and research centers that anticipate where to be.

The May government needs to declare it is UK policy to negotiate a close relationship and give some flesh to what that means( beyond the Brexiteers wish list of all gain and no pain). Thus there needs to be negotiations and agreement on heads of terms
16 Aug '16

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/banks-won-t-wait-around-to-see-what-brexit-deal-the-u-k-can-get

I understand prudent banks will at least set up in the short run the licensing arrangements to move HQ's and some staff to continent. To really assume they can not retain passporting rights is a big assumption. Gov. will fight for that. May already has signaled she is willing to look at some balance of free migration to do so. All depends on the flexibility on both sides. A deal is there to be done. David Davis is not the voice of the government on this. Pity Labour party will not really fight for passporting rights. Just does not understand the impact and few trade union members work in the city.
16 Aug '16

asking price survey and RICS directly talking about demand much better forward indicators. According to both no significant post Brexit downturn in transaction levels or demand (except for super luxury in a few London Boroughs -which were already in a down trend).

Of course all could be the calm before the storm but prices and transaction levels holding up after the onslaught of Armageddon headlines post Brexit surely underlying demand is holding the market up and not just fickle sentiment. NO real evidence of a storm yet to justify the correction for the sector.

It would take real net job losses to really hit the market and that has not yet happened and may never happen until the next serious recession -which I think will not be this business cycle so maybe 5 to 10 years off. Such low interest rates are not sustainable but this abnormal situation can last a generation. Too many vested interests to keep the economy propped up an government borrowing costs down on the drip feed of ultra low rates.

Asset prices will continue to evaluate as a result. Just nowhere else for cash to go.

The Pandora's box of QE has been opened and it will be hard to shut it again. First stage of monetizing the deficit using QE receipts has already been done (forgiving the interest payments on BOE held guilts). Second stage will be purchase of infrastructure bonds issued by the government by the BOE. The infrastructure bonds held by the BOE will actually never need to be paid back and certainly will not need interest to be paid. Basically free money that decelerating tax take to pay for it is not needed. Stimulus effect of that is substantial and Treasury is well aware of that and will act accordingly.

All a strange new world. BOE can get away with it as investors prefer the security of the pound even if that security is partly based on the ability to print money as needed. Any central bank in the developed world who is not printing money (or at least not keeping interest rates at silly low levels) in the same quantities is punished by an unattainably high exchange rate so it will take ages to get out of this abnormal situation . In the meantime asset prices inflate.

Builders sector ahs temporarily had a retrace based on sentiment but trend is up and lost ground will be retaken.
16 Aug '16

asking price survey and RICS directly talking about demand much better forward indicators. According to both no significant post Brexit downturn in transaction levels or demand (except for super luxury in a few London Boroughs -which were already in a down trend).

Of course all could be the calm before the storm but prices and transaction levels holding up after the onslaught of Armageddon headlines post Brexit surely underlying demand is holding the market up and not just fickle sentiment. NO real evidence of a storm yet to justify the correction for the sector.

It would take real net job losses to really hit the market and that has not yet happened and may never happen until the next serious recession -which I think will not be this business cycle so maybe 5 to 10 years off. Such low interest rates are not sustainable but this abnormal situation can last a generation. Too many vested interests to keep the economy propped up an government borrowing costs down on the drip feed of ultra low rates.

Asset prices will continue to evaluate as a result. Just nowhere else for cash to go.

The Pandora's box of QE has been opened and it will be hard to shut it again. First stage of monetizing the deficit using QE receipts has already been done (forgiving the interest payments on BOE held guilts). Second stage will be purchase of infrastructure bonds issued by the goverenmtn by the BOE>
16 Aug '16

Keepmoat housing arm buoys growth

Keepmoat’s housing division saw a 13.3% increase in home sales during the year ending March 31 2016 it said today (August 15), as it revealed plans to enter additional sectors following changes in government policy which have affected its regeneration arm.

The firm’s homes division sold 2,416 homes during its financial year against 2015. The average selling price rose 13% to £139,000, with homes revenue improving 28.3% to £337 million. This helped overall group revenue to rise 3.5% to £1,134 million.
15 Aug '16

nice to see a builder post brexit raising dividend. Utterly irresponsible if a big downturn is expected or underway.

That said 2007 was a buy out and dividend raising year so builders can be myopic. They are all more cautious now and much better capitalized -but that caution is not really priced in. Investors don't trust them after getting burned in 2008. Thus the lag in your intrinsic value. Sentiment changes though.
15 Aug '16

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-15-Aug-2016-FINAL.pdf

asking price survey 100% post Brexit shows no decline in the areas TEF are active. Support is demand and now lower mortgage rates. Brexit probably put paid to some price increases in the latter part of 2016 but TEF's forward projections were never dependent on any house price inflation. Would require a deep recession to blow them off course and we are just not getting that thus far.
15 Aug '16

seems to be the patter. Results no matter how good are used to offload and take advantage of the higher volume on the day to do so.

The bigger story emerging though is for new build in all but the most expensive developments demand holding up well post Brexit. Eventually that will change market sentiment.


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