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Resources analyst Charlie Long sees good times ahead for uranium Watch here

Resources analyst Charlie Long sees good times ahead for uranium

Member Info for steph

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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,884
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 36

Last Posted: Thu 06:42

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

3 Apr '17

If I do get to a million pound ISA I suppose I will be. Right now Wetherspoons is my families favourite pub and beer and cider our favourite drinks when at Wetherspoons so not quite champagne socialists yet.

I don't vote or participate politically in my personal economic self interest -although as I get older sorely tempted I must admit. Been let down twice by my labour party. Blair for sucking up to Bush and cashing in on his "public service" in retirement and Corbyn for losing (or never having) any sort of grip on the Brexit agenda. So after being let down by the left and right of my own Party where to go? Who am I?

Actually owning shares and depending on that ownership to supplement my job and state retirement plans does broaden ones perspective as a leftie quite a bit. Probably a very useful broadening.

I'd like to think that our TEF investment is on the ethical end of investments as they go though. London needs homes for it's economy to function well and that benefits all income groups even those who can't buy a TEF product.

Imagine a London where the economy has crashed enough to bring supply and demand into balance without a massive increase in supply. It is not the young well educated international focussed knowledge workers who are the lead TEF customers who will suffer most. They will just go elsewhere. So therefore so long as there is a housing shortage "every little bit counts" towards a balance for the right reasons (no crash just enough homes built). Thus an ethical investment.
2 Apr '17

I put in all I am allowed to within days of the April 5th or 6th date each year as this is normally ahead of update and obviously is ahead of year end results. We have risen on update and year end results consistently every year so there is no point in delay. This has been my pattern since I crashed out of the market (my ISA included) in August 2011.

The result is 36,000 TEF shares in my isa -hopefully increasing to over 41,000 late next week. With reinvested divis and further top ups I should reach 50,000 shares in my ISA within 2 years. I hope this will generate a significant % of my retirement income in 10 to 15 years time. maybe I'll be able to join the million pound ISA club.
2 Apr '17

No time for me to slip in my ISA purchase this year.
2 Apr '17

As terr always says short term predictions a mugs game but here goes anyway.

A lot of pull back since may 2015 with no deterioration of the companies performance. Indeed the company has delivered what it promised in May 2015 and more.

General market TEF operate in has not crashed or retraced but has settled into a more sustainable house price inflation of 2% to 5% or so per year.

IN most circumstances we would be above our May 2015 high. I think we will tend to catch up and this update will be step one. Thus I predict 3.80+ on the update and 4,10+ on the results. Maybe significantly more.

Brexit uncertainly has held back the share since June 2016 (and perhaps before as well) but the bad news is now priced in and there is as much upside news to come on Brexit (ie there will be some sensible transition to some sensible final arrangements) as there is further downside risk (crashing out without a reasonable permanent or transitional agreement). Progress on an orderly Brexit will count as good news.

Davis is a true believer but not stupid and emerging as the "intellectual lead" (if there is such a thing for Brexit) and has signalled he is willing to promote painful compromises to achieve the main objective in an orderly way. He wants a "good Brexit" and is the type capable of resigning on a matter of principal. If he can achieve Mays support can help face down some of the "stupid party" members baying for the daily mail version of Brexit.

Thankfully we do not have a bloated poser like Boris in charge. May to me is a bit of an overpromoted poser herself but lacks the pomposity of Boris so we don't notice. Anyhow "bit of" much better than "full blown" poser and May's reluctance to endorse Brexit during the campaign may well stand her in good stead when the choices are clear and the bravado is over. More 1916 and not 1914. May might rise to the occasion.

I am left wing Labour yet I find Corbyn beyond contempt. Banging on about wanting state aid post Brexit when that is the most un-progressive policy you can have (and in any case is not allowed in any modern free trade agreement with the EU "anti dumping" and is even covered under modern WTO rules as "anti dumping". Corby has access to a lot of brain power as leader of the Labour party but he does not have the organizational skills to make use of it. He allows himself to be limited by his limited intelligence. The worst possible opposition leader at this particular moment. It is not a matter of left or right on Brexit as the traditional political divisions are all mixed up. It is a choice between competent or incompetent and for me Corbyn is firmly the latter. If I had wanted a "kinder gentler" opposition leader I would have voted for my mother. I want razor sharp, strategic and effective.
29 Mar '17

good company specific news just keeps rolling in.

How long until we get our previous May 2016 high back of 4.93?

Will it really be 13 to 18 months? maybe sooner. No company specific reason not to meet and exceed 5 quid. Just general market jitters holding us back.
29 Mar '17

A big advantage of London I did not mention is the explicit willingness of the BOE to stand behind up to 7 or 8 times GDP the activities of UK based banks (current exposure is 3 to 4). This puts us all at risk in a crisis (which is why Switzerland is deliberately discouraging it's banks to grow by overzealous capital requirements).

However it is a huge factor for banks and financial services to have a regulator willing to put up with them, allow and even encourage them to grow and able to regulate in terms of capacity to do so. IN spite of the taxes and well paid jobs the sector brings big banks are not for everyone and they have felt cold winds blowing so the stability of our regulator and political climate is a major factor. IN this sense the remoteness of Corby to power and the dominance of the Tories is considered a plus. Having our own currency and able to print money in a banking crisis (as we did) is an advantage against all EU centres and part of the reason why we can go up to 7 or 8 times GDP and they can't.

Being welcome and in a Country big enough and flexible enough to stand behind them in a crisis (and able to regulate them up to agreed standards) is huge. There are only 3 EU countries remotely able to duplicate this, Italy, Germany and France none of which have their own currency or have declared the political will to stand behind more international banks in a crisis.

Our banking sector is a bit like a rich but slightly dodgy cousin. Not universally welcome but useful to have on our side never the less.
29 Mar '17

While genuinely impossible to know -even by banks of PHd's with fancy economics degrees - I am starting to form the thesis relevant to our investments here that Brexit will not have a big impact on the London property market.

1) no big impact yet. There would have been some as the banks (with full access to banks of PHd's with fancy economic degrees) have obvious been looking at it and if they had concluded they needed to move they would have started.

2) the regulatory body of the ECB now getting nervous about UK based banks using shell companies in the easiest EU jurisdiction to book a trade or activity and now talking about requiring that booking a trade in the EU needs to be accompanied by the brains behind the booking. Talking about it and regulating it quite different and lots of resistance to any substantial restriction will come up from EU countries who don't comply.

3) London's business and financial cluster may have reached critical mass where it is self perpetuating under most circumstances.

4) Political and regulatory instability of Brexit palls in comparison to risk of Le Pen winning the presidency this election nor next. No bank will jump from a small fry pan to a big one.

5) Immigration restrictions of Trump make New York not a great pace to move global staff to for the foreseeable future. Too many HR problems for the companies Muslim staff to do so. IN HR land you can't deny Muslim staff international promotions due to Trump. They will in time get sued if they do. Having a Muslim mayor and Brexateers all accepting we will have no restrictions on highly skilled staff are huge comparative advantages for the knowledge based international firms. Indeed we may well emerge as more liberal towards non eu immigration/work permits in this category than most EU countries -a big plus.

6) Our foreign aid budget and historical immigration as a KPI for openness to the world is well ahead of many competitors. Also we have a lot of expats spread about that bring in valuable contacts and experience.

7) London is English speaking and just plain cool for the international knowledge staff compared to Frankfurt. It is just amazing when you work internationally how English has become the dominant business language for all nations (Latin based and well as far eastern) even for technical consultancy never mind finance. Expats in business and financial services bring families and those families will want to operate and school in English if not their own language. London can cater to both but is world leading on private schools for well paid expats.

8) London has the services for the upper management that families like. It is a preferred posting for an American, Indian or far Eastern expat in a way that Dublin/Frankfurt/Brussels/Madrid/Rome can never be. There is a critical mass of well paid exats from each country in London and the school, culinary, religious and social services to match that take time to build
28 Mar '17

one bizarre and counter instinctive possibility is that our successful business and financial services cluster will continue to service the EU market from London much as now but have higher employment in the compliance functions as a result of BRexit. More red tape so to speak but not enough to entice them to move to the EU to avoid it. Just the sorts of future jobs that might buy TEF product. Paid enough to afford TEF but not enough for the West End or Berkeley.

Canary Wharf once told me of a counter intuitive employment result of the great 2007-2009 crash. As Canary tenants were on long leases as the sector contracted business and financial service companies concentrated their remaining employment at canary but as they were on lower grades density went up and thus more jobs not less resulted.

Boris is a real idiot when I start hoping that the likes of Davis will reign him in. Always playing to the crowd no matter what the damage to the nation. What on earth does he actually believe in other than his own self promotion? Maybot is over promoted and underwhelming -afraid of the daily mail and her own shadow. She deserves the Mail put down on the front page. If she had any balls (I suppose she does not as a matter of anatomical fact but you know what I mean) -she would have called for Paul Dacra and Sara vine's heads. Both put pure poison into the body politic of the nation. Mail's modern behaviour is like calling for détente with Hitler on the outbreak of WW2 -oh I forgot the Mail did just that!!! National disgrace the two of them.

We are as a nation a lion led by mice about to enter the most challenging historical period since the war.
28 Mar '17

While I would like to see a short term SP boost due to a take over rumour or offer I get more in the long run by TEF building slowly up to my 20 quid over 10 to 15 years -and that will never happen if actually taken over by a major.

patience, patience.
28 Mar '17

Let redrow bid for TEF then.

Don't want a take over but at least it would draw attention to our SP.

Surprised post crash there has not been more consolidation.

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