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Member Info for steph

Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,626
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 62

Last Posted: Today 07:16

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

16 Aug '14

First AGM after this hits 5 quid we should all go and have a great dinner afterwards. Will be either July 2015 or 2016. Been a long ride.
16 Aug '14

I think we are heading up further gains this week. maybe by October update we will be back on track for a 380 to 400 trading range and more after November half year finals formally change projections.
16 Aug '14

thanks, what a strong endorsement. wow. we really got singled out. exactly as the chat on this board has stated. Congratulations to us all.

Another of my favourite Aim shares is Telford Homes at 288p, giving a market capitalisation at £172m. The company is a residential property developer building new homes in inner London with a very enviable forward order position stretching years ahead – 98pc sold for 2015 and 70pc for 2016. Annual pre-tax profits announced in May were up by 113pc at £19.2m. Management has forecast that by 2018 profits should have doubled again.

House builders may be regarded as cyclical but how many non-cyclical companies can forecast with confidence such attractive profits sofar ahead?

(Seven I think you missed the train)
16 Aug '14

Funny few weeks. Nice week though. Let there be 2 or 3 more like it and we will be where I thought we would be by now.

My contribution to the board is housing sector economics with a splash of wider economics and that only influences the SP in the medium and long term. I have tried to develop metrics that predict shorter term movements up and down and they only work for limited periods of time.

Spanish and Italian 10 year bond yields were a very good metric for Euro trouble and euro trouble had a huge effect on all shares but particularly the volatile ones like UK builders. Italian and Spanish yields now at historic lows (2.6 and 2.4). Especially given Italian trouble this indicates the market is expecting easing by ECB. Big money has nowhere to go except stock and gradually tightening US and UK due to improving economy will be offset by very lose Japanese and EU for years to come. UK in equities sweet spot. Good economy but getting the extra lift of cheap EU money flowing in.

As we know geopolitical trouble does not harm the London housing market as it is considered a safe haven. So unless things get much worse on that front to the point that world capital stability is threatened no risk to TEF.

My biggest contribution starting with the TW board has been to predict an ongoing housing shortage in the UK and London in particular that would underpin prices and drive profit for UK builders.

Pundits in 2008 were predicting a Spanish/Irish and USA style crash and that never was going to happen in the UK. I was formally involved in some economic modeling for Thames Gateway jobs and homes markets back then so it was an educated opinion. This contrarian observation (around London’s business and financial services sector future and the related housing demand in the SE) remains as valid now as when I first made it on the TW board in 2008.

Going forward the conditions for big increases in the SP of this share over the next few years remain. Historically favorable –even unique- conditions exist for a mid sized builder to break into the top ranks without major dilution of shares along the way. Windfall profits can fund the expansion while barriers to entry and demand for the product remain high.

The big volume UK builders are not going to get into TEF’s patch with big increases in London volume nor is some new builder going to do it either. Globalization of the service sector is speeding up and this favors the London jobs markets (and thus home markets) across the board. Yes London is the most expensive housing market in the world but with good reason and thus it is sustainable going forward.

Anyhow I expect 10 quid plus in 5 years or less. I’ll hang onto as much of my TEF position (as extensions and the like allow) until then. I now have near zero holdings in any other share. No point. I think TEF will outperform them all.
15 Aug '14

BIt rich to turn around an immanent prediction of a dip to 200 to 250 days before a sharp recovery to 300+ as a way of focusing our attention on some downsides. I appreciate your postings as they help explain what might be going on in the minds of buyers less close to the share as us. Still I'll keep my own council. If one follows the herd can not make above average profit. Basic rule.

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