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Member Info for steph


Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,739
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 46

Last Posted: Thu 08:31


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




6 Nov '14


nice

and all without dilution. Growth of this pace in pipleline with no dilution = growth share. P/E wrong for a growth share.
6 Nov '14


Sumo good icon for TEF big investors. I always imagine big buyers and big sellers both trying hard not to reveal their hand to the other lest this cause the market to move against their interests. So very opaque and hard to read. Neither want to move first in volume and are hoping the other will move first. No other way of explaining the dip to 2.60 or the fact we have flatlined for 12 months.

Once the selling pressure eases this will jump sharply into the 4 to 4.50 range. We have moved sideways for a year with ever improving news. This time last year we had nothing like the industry leading pipeline we now have and all without any share dilution. The other house builders are getting near their highs shrugging off the crash doom and gloom merchants affecting sentiment.

I wish management would take the stock private or accept a benign take over that leaves the team in place. I’d happily give up my 10 quid in 4 or 5 years time for an immediate lift above 5 quid. Been an awkward 12 month wait for me -so far for nothing. I’d put my forced sale of TEF into a basket of the other builders. None will do the jump that TEF can but they will all beat the general market.
5 Nov '14


lets hope it is a good storm that throws up on some sunny tropical isle.
5 Nov '14


Happy for you to cut and paste from here but I am out of TW chat and out of TW shares. Why pontificate if no skin in the game.

Now that TW have recovered their dilution adjusted pre crash high (depending on how calculated) I have not felt it was as good a bet as TEF. TW volumes are below pre crash volumes and will be for the foreseeable future. The SP is held up by better margins and much less debt than they had. TW will not double and certainly triple over the next 5 years. No conceivable scenario where that can happen.

TEF on the other hand is poised to break it's pre crash volumes by wide margins. Very different play. Much more of a growth share and not a bet on fickle market sentiment.
5 Nov '14


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11205505/Lingering-slump-in-real-UK-house-prices-outside-London-belies-bubble-fears.html

this bubble talk that is depressing Housing shares for fear of a big retrace in nominal selling prices is nonsence. We are in a good sector that will likely see nominal inflation for the foresseable future. As all TEF schemes are actioned on an assummption of zero inflation the windfall profits due to some inflation will keep rolling in and fatten the already healthy margins. OK wil not be quite the windfall profits we are about to ahve for 3 years but very helathy on higher volume is good enough for me. No better company in no better sector in no better country. Lowest risk bet around to triple one's money in 5 years or so.


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