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Is the Bull Market over? Andre Minassian says no! Watch here

Is the Bull Market over? Andre Minassian says no!

Member Info for steph

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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,793
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 6

Last Posted: 15 Jan '17

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

13 Oct '16

Brendon Thomas MRICS,
Oakland Surveyors, Tower
Southwark, Mid-lower end of the
market fairly buoyant, better
than July. Decent buyer interest,
average stock levels.
11 Oct '16

quite right. I type these blogs pretty quickly so no editing and a distant memory of laurel and Hardy to go on. Overreach this time.

I've never seen TEF so undervalued since the short sharp dip to 60p in 2012. I don't believe we are heading for a major recession that will drop nominal prices by any significant amount. As TEF's forward projections do not have any house price inflation built in surely the forecasts are relatively safe -not to mention the forward sales on many. EPS and divi yield will get to silly numbers in 3 years time unless this SP starts to move upwards. Sentiment can not trump results forever.
10 Oct '16

soon it will be "leave it to the great grandkids" as they only ones with a chance of building up the deposit needed.

Our Nigel Farrange over there Trump. The range of credible characters who campaigned openly for a hard exit is a narrow one indeed. The mainstream ones like Boris said "we can have our cake and eat it too" meaning we can have all the benefits of a soft exit and none of the current obligations. Incredibly dishonest.

Whole thing incredibly stupid. Referendum should have also asked if we left EU did we want to stay in common market or come completely out. As it didn't there should be a second referendum on the terms -or at least cross party parliamentary support. There was not remotely a electoral majority for a hard exit. UKIP was the only group honest enough to campaign for a hard exit and they are a bunch of Trump loving nutcases with not a single seat in parliament -yet it is UKIP policy we are imposing on the UK.

Did we really vote to free ourselves from Brussels only to be under the thumb of that bunch of incompetent nutcases without even parliamentary scrutiny and a parliamentary vote to constrain them.

As Laurel would have said "what a mess we are in Stan"
9 Oct '16

Trump is a black swan for us. Election could cause worldwide markets to wobble -maybe even trigger a major correction. Clinton getting elected is probably priced in. Every trip up he does helps as odds get longer. So good news he is on record for being an even bigger ass...e than first thought.
6 Oct '16

never thought I'd hear you lamenting the absence of Josh.

I like contrarian views as long as they are delivered politely. Josh did get a bit heavy at times but was useful never-the-less.

Our SP is so beaten up right now from May 2015 it is hard to find a contrarian who knows the sector and share. Always the world will end doom and gloomers and as we go into recessions every 10 year or so every 10 years or so they are right. Trouble is most of the time they are wrong and it would be foolish to follow their advice year on year.

I am particular scornful of the lazy analysis that look at multiples of earnings and say we are overvalued. So many other factors to take into account not the least interest rates. It is like saying that as gold exceeds historic multiples of earnings per once demand will go down as an ounce of gold becomes "unaffordable". The precise opposite happens in practice.
5 Oct '16

And the former Citibank economist will say the housing market “may well be less vulnerable to heightened uncertainty than the MPC’s August forecast implies, especially given the substantial backlog in housing demand and record-low level of mortgage rates.”
3 Oct '16

looks like we are heading for a hard and not soft exit. market has therefore correctly priced that in for our sector. Anyhow at least we will not get hard brexit market dips now. All priced in and now we know no short term big shock. will be a long term economic underperformance against the pre Brexit benchmark instead -but nothing of the scale to worry TEF investors and no recession it seems.

Of course could be a surprise now on the upside. all this hard talk could be a way of making the UK sound not desperate for Common market access and thus able to get more of it for less concessions on immigration than otherwise might be the case. Can't see the conservative party really turning a deaf ear to the city. They are one and the same lot.

Of course hard talk within Germany led to WW1 once Bismarck's diplomatic skills faded and the gung ho military types had the Kaiser's ear. Hard talk can backfire. Let's hope our 3 Brexiteers (maybe 4 including May) are luckier.
3 Oct '16

Record year for CALA

CALA has announced a record financial year with profits topping £60 million for the first time in the group’s history.

In the year to the end of June CALA completed 1,151 homes compared to 993 the year before with turnover rising 15% to £587.1 million.

CALA ceo Alan Brown said the firm remains on course to deliver 2,000 to 2,500 homes a year within the next four years. “Our growth strategy remains to focus on driving operational efficiency improvements throughout the group as we continue scaling up our divisions,” he said. “Alongside this, we continue to invest in building the size and capability of our teams, welcoming almost 100 additional members of staff to the business including our ongoing increase of apprenticeship and graduate recruitment initiatives across the group.”

Brown also said trading has been positive since the EU referendum. “In the 13 weeks since the EU referendum result, and although still early days, the group saw positive trading with total enquiry levels and reservation rates up 9% and 46% respectively while website users have also risen by 32% on the equivalent period last year. Sales prices have also remained stable while cancellation rates have actually reduced slightly.”

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
3 Oct '16

Chancellor to launch new home building fund

Chancellor Philip Hammond and communities secretary Sajid Javid are expected today to detail measures aimed at getting 40,000 extra new homes built by 2020.

The government will borrow £2 billion to support an "accelerated construction" scheme, which aims to get houses built on publicly-owned brownfield land available for swift development. This is aimed at encouraging new developers to build up to 15,000 homes in this parliament.

There is also expected to be a £3 billion home building fund to provide loans to stimulate projects, the fund will release £1 billion of short term loans for small builders, custom builders and innovative developers to deliver 25,000 homes by 2020, while a further £2 billion of long term funding for infrastructure will be aimed at delivering up to 200,000 homes.

In advance of the announcement Stewart Baseley, executive chairman of the Home Builders Federation, said: “The industry has increased housing supply significantly in recent years but innovative thinking is required if we are to deliver the number of homes the country needs. Moves to speed up how quickly builders can get onto sites, to bring more land forward more quickly and to incentivise new entrants will undoubtedly help increase output further.”

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
2 Oct '16

Never understood why TEF has not been the target of more takeover interest -either a large UK builder wanting a greater London exposure or a foreign newcomer wanting a way to get started. Such a juicy plumb.

That is why I am never fully disinvested even when I see some storm clouds. Just would hate to miss that "whoosh". IN the long run we will rise up to and beyond any amount a take over might offer but would be nice sometimes to see capital gains brought forward. We all could use a few bob in the picket now.

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