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Member Info for steph


Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,034
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 38

Last Posted: Sat 11:30


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




7 Jul '15


I suppose all of us "fundamentalists" (seems a tad religious a term ) see significant unpriced value in TEF even at 4.25. So we are believe the market is imperfect for TEF. Fortunately there are enough investors to bet the other way.

One can't complain too much about the slow progress for the market to recognize TEF's full potential without acknowledging that we all got a buy in price well below what a rational market would have set. Hidden treasure.

Trading below EV also gives us more of a cushion in case the wider market crashes so a time lag is not without some benefit. When a market crash happens it is divi income (assumingly responsibly and conservatively allocated based not just on trailing profit but projected profit) that puts a floor on the SP.

7 Jul '15


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

it (technical analysis) is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[15] Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient-market hypothesis.[16][17] Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities.[18]

I’m afraid I believe that the basic thesis underpinning “technical analysis” that the markets are 100% efficient and all information that should be priced in is priced in to SP’s is particularly weak when dealing with an AIM with an unusual unique business model and unique geographic focus not fully understood and appreciated by many investors. Also TEF has had recently a major investor dispose of shares for entirely personal reasons that had nothing to do with the SP performance or prospects. The exact oppositve of an efficient market.

I admit that, like a medical placebo, if enough investors follow technical analysis it can be self fulfilling in the short run and it is well worth being aware of it even if one thinks the underlying theory is very weak. A true technical analysist will not believe they can influence the price in a self reinforcing loop as that is an irrational market. They must believe it is based on fundamentals (other than their own behavour) properly priced in and thus observable in current and historic SP.

Anyhow for my money I think based on fundamentals there is buried treasure not priced in in this share which is in direct contraction to a technical analysis that assumes that all is priced in. Only time will tell.
6 Jul '15


I don't like the banks as long term investments but shorting is brave. Good luck

By the way I bought some National Bank of Greece Friday the 26th of June -so my opinion on banks is not worth much. Can't see that doing anything else but plunge like a stone when the Athens stock market finally reopens. Now if I had shorted... :)
6 Jul '15


good for you

I trust you took a postion have now closed out and have made money and you will bank it.

For me I am not closing out for a few years yet so too early to say who beats who.

GLA
6 Jul '15


Dak good news about barclays analyists. I think that did hurt us and made no sense. I assume they are still a hold rather than buy but the target is important.

From housebuilder news:

First half homes record for Bovis - amended

Bovis says it has completed a record number of new homes in the first half of the year in a trading statement issued this morning (July 6).

The group reached 1,525 legal completions in the first half, against 1,487 last year. Bovis's forward sales position for 2015 delivery stands at 3,505 at June 30, against 3,297 at the equivalent time last year.

"The group has delivered a record number of first half legal completions made possible by the high quality land investments made during the last few years," said Bovis ceo David Ritchie. "We continue to trade well in a positive UK housing market delivering a strong forward sales and build position on an increased number of sales outlets." Bovis has been trading from an average of 100 sales outlets during the year to date, 8% up on the same period last in 2014.

The firm says housing production is 13% ahead of last year, helping the firm deliver its planned volume growth.


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