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Member Info for steph


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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,544
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 60

Last Posted: Today 05:45


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




21 Apr '16

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/isas/proof-that-investors-cannot-buy-low-sell-high/

As the article says you can overtrade and over focus on short term SP movement and lose one's nerve.

Of course we would all like a steady SP that goes slowly up in a predictable way based on long term value calculations. Not the way of the world and one must jump on a roller coaster that can for no good reason underperform for 2 years or more at a time.

I really have no issue with the management of TEF. It is what it is -a long term play on value for shareholders. FOR my ISA it is a perfect fit as I have a 10 year horizon on those. For the rest of my holding I'd like less volatility. A stated reason for the placing is it widened the shareholder base and that should have provided stability. I've seen no such thing happen. We are more volatile than we were when we had fewer institutional shareholders. 5 years ago we went up and down on sector relevant news less than the Majors in the sector -now we seem to go up and down more.

I am still surprised no interest form the majors or a foreign builder to buy TEF. Such a juicy plum for them at these SP levels. 500 to 550 would almost certainly buy TEF at this SP level even in a hostile bid. Amazing considering we were 4.90 just last May.
20 Apr '16

As mentioned I am split on it not against. Proof will be when the SP recovers. Then we can really say for certain it added shareholder value.

For now Mr. Market does not think so. I think Mr. Market is wrong but that is thin gruel for anybody who needs to trim a bit in the short term. Great for any with cash to top up though.
20 Apr '16

Thanks for the article. Well written. We are a bit more bullish on the conclusion but along the same lines.

I personably am split on the equity raising. 3.60 now does not seem like the give away it was when first mooted but I do wonder if shareholder value (and our current SP) for at least the first 2 years afterwards would have been 50 points better with purely organic growth. For Terr that is immaterial but for me it does make a difference.

I fully agree that on a 5 year timeline the equity raising will add value per share and will be seen as a masterstroke. However one can have too many masterstrokes so I hope (and expect) this is the last major dilution for at least 5 years.
19 Apr '16

I once made a punt on 10 small mining and oil and gas exploration companies all tipped by IC and all but 8 went down and the 2 that went up was nowhere near not enough to compensate. Last time I invested on a published share tip. Have your own thesis and do your own research. Tips in the public realm are near useless. Even if correct you will be behind the smart money who will have seen it first and the news/analysis will be priced in.
19 Apr '16

IC did not comment on our April 14 update in spite of a buy recommendation when we were 3.88 in December on the table. come on TEF publicity. Do your job. Pick up the phone.
19 Apr '16

sorry.

Yes Trump as a non-exec for TEF could build a wall around the East End and prevent any building into our patch so we can make above sector profits forever.

I suppose he could also threaten to ban all Muslim buyers of TEF product but trial the effective date by a couple of years so we get a 2 year surge of interest.

We don't have many Mexican buyers to ban but we could still hire a Mariachi band for all openings and then treat them poorly and not pay them.

He is pretty chummy with corrupt Russians and Chinese so I'd expect he could wheel them in by the barrel load.

God Bless America
18 Apr '16

lots of bling, very east end. Might appeal to a few East End Del Boys who actually made their million. Knowing the type they would probably milk the help to buy scheme several times for several flats under different names. All help our local buyer statistics though.
18 Apr '16

saw the questor. telegraph has gone downhill since JIm Slater went. Just unbalanced and poorly researched. I don't mind a variety of views but resent this one sided tirade.

The housing sector always has a risk of a dip in house prices as the business model ties up capital in a large land bank whose value is deeply affected by a dip. since the great recession all builders are much less leveraged and the business model has been made safer but this does not seem to be reflected in the P/E ratios which value the sector as risky even though they are making steady and increasing profits and are making steady expansions in volume -with more to come for a decade or more as there is a structural shortage and barriers to entry. All shares carry risk but this sector has been oversold.


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