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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,787
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 32

Last Posted: Today 10:54

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

3 Oct '16

looks like we are heading for a hard and not soft exit. market has therefore correctly priced that in for our sector. Anyhow at least we will not get hard brexit market dips now. All priced in and now we know no short term big shock. will be a long term economic underperformance against the pre Brexit benchmark instead -but nothing of the scale to worry TEF investors and no recession it seems.

Of course could be a surprise now on the upside. all this hard talk could be a way of making the UK sound not desperate for Common market access and thus able to get more of it for less concessions on immigration than otherwise might be the case. Can't see the conservative party really turning a deaf ear to the city. They are one and the same lot.

Of course hard talk within Germany led to WW1 once Bismarck's diplomatic skills faded and the gung ho military types had the Kaiser's ear. Hard talk can backfire. Let's hope our 3 Brexiteers (maybe 4 including May) are luckier.
3 Oct '16

Record year for CALA

CALA has announced a record financial year with profits topping £60 million for the first time in the group’s history.

In the year to the end of June CALA completed 1,151 homes compared to 993 the year before with turnover rising 15% to £587.1 million.

CALA ceo Alan Brown said the firm remains on course to deliver 2,000 to 2,500 homes a year within the next four years. “Our growth strategy remains to focus on driving operational efficiency improvements throughout the group as we continue scaling up our divisions,” he said. “Alongside this, we continue to invest in building the size and capability of our teams, welcoming almost 100 additional members of staff to the business including our ongoing increase of apprenticeship and graduate recruitment initiatives across the group.”

Brown also said trading has been positive since the EU referendum. “In the 13 weeks since the EU referendum result, and although still early days, the group saw positive trading with total enquiry levels and reservation rates up 9% and 46% respectively while website users have also risen by 32% on the equivalent period last year. Sales prices have also remained stable while cancellation rates have actually reduced slightly.”

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
3 Oct '16

Chancellor to launch new home building fund

Chancellor Philip Hammond and communities secretary Sajid Javid are expected today to detail measures aimed at getting 40,000 extra new homes built by 2020.

The government will borrow £2 billion to support an "accelerated construction" scheme, which aims to get houses built on publicly-owned brownfield land available for swift development. This is aimed at encouraging new developers to build up to 15,000 homes in this parliament.

There is also expected to be a £3 billion home building fund to provide loans to stimulate projects, the fund will release £1 billion of short term loans for small builders, custom builders and innovative developers to deliver 25,000 homes by 2020, while a further £2 billion of long term funding for infrastructure will be aimed at delivering up to 200,000 homes.

In advance of the announcement Stewart Baseley, executive chairman of the Home Builders Federation, said: “The industry has increased housing supply significantly in recent years but innovative thinking is required if we are to deliver the number of homes the country needs. Moves to speed up how quickly builders can get onto sites, to bring more land forward more quickly and to incentivise new entrants will undoubtedly help increase output further.”

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
2 Oct '16

Never understood why TEF has not been the target of more takeover interest -either a large UK builder wanting a greater London exposure or a foreign newcomer wanting a way to get started. Such a juicy plumb.

That is why I am never fully disinvested even when I see some storm clouds. Just would hate to miss that "whoosh". IN the long run we will rise up to and beyond any amount a take over might offer but would be nice sometimes to see capital gains brought forward. We all could use a few bob in the picket now.
2 Oct '16

long term of course robotics will automate many functions on a construction site. Repetitive, dangerous and heavy work. Ideal for robotics with the right level of AI. Much easier to do than driverless cars.

A further squeeze on small builders who can't afford the latest kit. TEF need to get to a critical mass to take advantage of new on site technology.
29 Sep '16

I like Crisp street. Busy road to cross but after that a nice walk to Canary. Limehouse has become posh for that reason.

more evidence we will have low interest rates forever and that means the traditional multiples of house prices over incomes to determine affordability is wrong. The real interest rate being paid by most is roughly half of what it used to be and that means the multiple is twice what it used to be.

On a residential mortgage with 25% equity rates are circa 3% when pre crash they were 6%. It is a massive difference that when combined with a surplus of demand over supply for the foreseeable future in TEF's patch are the two most important variables. Expect moderate asset price inflation in East London for the foreseeable future. TEFcan ride this wave to a build volume of 2000+ easily without further dilution -just retained profits.
28 Sep '16

all power to an anorak's elbow.

Without your posts I would not be as heavily invested here. For me essential on the ground information and I feel that collectively we are scrutinizing company and sector performance beyond the normal publically available information. We each have to make our own investment decisions in the end of course but so happy we have a good informative board here as a backstop.

I trust my broader (sometimes off the wall) posts on the sector, economy and the wider risks are also helpful in return. I know East London well and have been a supporter of it's regeneration for some time. TEF for me is a bet on the sector and within that a bet on East London rising in relative terms to the rest of the Capital.
26 Sep '16

I'm willing to bet that we will rise more than sector over the next 5 years. Great investment.

Labour starting to come off the fence on Brexit. I don't like McDonald -he is a bully- but at least starting to from a sensible Labour approach to Brexit. Interesting that the Marxist wing of the Labour party sees that the UK banks need to thrive to support jobs and the economy. It is so obvious to me but many on the left have such a hostility to the banks they bite the hand that feeds them in terms of well paid jobs and lots of taxes. See below.

McDonnell says Labour wants the UK to keep its stake in the European Investment Bank.

And he turns to the City.

At the centre of negotiations is Britain’s financial services industry.Our financial services have been placed under threat as a result of the vote to leave. Labour has said we will support access to European markets for financial services. But our financial services must understand that 2008 must never happen again. We will not tolerate a return to the casino economy that contributed to that crash.

Let’s get it straight, we have to protect jobs here. So we will seek to preserve access to the single market for goods and services. Today, access to the single market requires freedom of movement of labour. But we will address the concerns that people have raised in the undercutting of wages and conditions, and the pressure on local public services
22 Sep '16

a different route to maintaining bank pass porting. Of course we still will outside the EU lose the ability to stop stupid EU regulations that might hurt London but at least not necessarily lose bank passporting as well so long as we grin and bear it.
22 Sep '16

I'm looking forward to prelim half yearly results mid October. Should be a positive read. Imagine shorters will have to bail before then but they are a mad lot -perhaps linked to us via a sector formula and not our individual circumstances.

Terr my two big black swans at eh moment are an accidental hard Brexit and Trump being elected. It is 2 years off for the market to get nervous about an accidental hard exit so on the back pond that black swan for now. Market has priced in and then some initial Brexit panic.

Trump is a different matter. Odds of trump winning are about 30 to 40% so not a remote risk. How the markets might initially react and how they will react later when he does something stupid -as he is want to do- is anybody's guess. He might surprise on the upside as expectations already quite low. He has talked about a massive infrastructure program and the easiest way to do that without taxing the hell out of the US population -which is a non starter- is to raid the Fed's QE stash. If done smoothly that could stimulate the markets upwards rather than downwards. Of course he is capable of starting trade and real wars but hard to know how this different from Clinton much on the war front. He jokes that Clinton never saw a situation she did not want to bomb. Amazing the at the "establishment' candidate can be labeled as militarily reckless by a maverick. Just shows the drift of the US establishment as a whole post 9/11. Trump is likely to follow a more traditional US isolationist line militarily and that may well be market positive if the money saved is put into infrastructure or tax cuts worldwide.

My old indicators of EURO trouble (Spanish and Italian 10 year bond yields) around 1 so nothing expected to blow up any time soon there. Risks though. Greece now has it's debt onto central banks books so even a default will not have a knock on effect on the banking system as it would have earlier. Ireland well out of danger. Spanish economy slowly recovering. Italy probably the wild card and Le Penn in France probably a bigger black swan than trump.

I would not be in the market at all outside of my ISA if not for feeling that TEF is sufficiently undervalued at the moment and has sufficient growth potential to compensate for these risks.

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