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Member Info for steph

Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,564
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 35

Last Posted: Sat 12:03

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

30 Jun '14

we still have a very specific seller unloading. We are now over 60 points behind BDEV which is my metric for sector adjusted SP short term value. We nearly caught up to BDEV just a week or two ago so this is a serious lag.

Eventually the seller will clear -or decide to hold the remainder long term- and we will jump up.
30 Jun '14

more evidence that BOE does not think there is a bubble (that is unsustainble price rises followed by a crash in nominal values) nor does it see it as it's job to engineer a stop to price rises. The central forcast is 7% house price inflation for 3 years and probably many years beyond until there is more supply. Of course a sharp recession will cause house prices to pause (TEF are not relying on HP inflation to hit it's margin targets) or go down (that would hurt TEF) but a sharp recession will hurt all asset classes except cash and bonds so if that is the only scenario that might really hurt us why is the rest of the FTSE so robust?? At present SP's the UK builders have a lot of highly speculative sector specific bad future news factored in and the future is not so bleak as that. The fog will clear in due course.
29 Jun '14

then over 2/3rds of te earnings are in the second half for BDEV. Still does not expalian why we are not level pegging or ahead of BDEV. We are now into a new year and our EPS is going up too.

terr of course you are right but it is still useful to try to figure out Mrs market's moods to get the best buy in or cash out points if you can. Nothing more furstrating topping up only to get a better entry point a few days later. Agree more of an art than a science. Unknowns and unknowables mix with hard facts and doable analysis.
28 Jun '14

I just don’t get the market and why we are 60 point south of BDEV. BDEV half yearly results published in Feb for Dec 31 2013 give EPS of 9.1.They don’t’ say earings are rear loaded for the year so say 18,2 for year end. Half year divi was same as ours but BDEV use a 1/3’rd of projected earnings 2 years out to calculate and we use current so we have many divi increases to come that BDEV will not get.

TEF’s EPS based on year end results is 25.8 diluted for year end of march 31 2014. So why oh why afe we even a penny south of BDEV on SP????

All right we are AIM and they are the wonderful FTSE but that at best is worth 10%. Profit and EPS are real numbers. Forward profit increases are better at TEF as well. Profit doubling again within 4 years is not something BDEV is saying for itself.

Beats me. Why blackrock would pivot out of a UK AIM builder and into a FTSE builder based on that beats me. Maybe they are just not as smart as we think and it is some pimply faced kid running what for them is a small portfolio and the kid is just doing blindly what his chums seem to think. Arbitrage for us grizzly (slightly) older and wiser warriors I think.

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