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Member Info for steph


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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,395
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 27

Last Posted: Today 05:07


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




30 Nov '15

Over a million shares traded today

Our sellers will be sated soon
30 Nov '15

sensible advise. I need to trim a bit before new year for construction so choosing when. Hate to do it below 4.20. Convinced we will get above that soon.

We have a seller who must get exhausted soon at these volumes. Can't imagine we have lots of big sellers but can imagine lots of big buyers waiting in the wings at this SP price.
30 Nov '15

volumes fairly high without dramatic SP movement so I suspect we have both serious sellers and buyers. Can't imagine a seller will last long so expecting it to go up soon.
30 Nov '15

should be a good week.

I expect for ftse, sector and especially TEF a santa rally to start after a rocky November. ECB about to ease further which helps on the macro side. Also business confidence in teh UK is high yet not reflected in SPs. OUr results should help and even though much good news and upgrades were put on the table only 3 weeks ago it is always better to have them on teh half yearlies which are watched more closely by the wider investemnt community plus tef seem to be making progress on sales not yet factored in.

I'll guess 4.00 by weeks end and 430 by christmas. Any other guesses?
29 Nov '15

Quite right terr that the budget for TEF's specific market is not the 2x coverage of money going in over that taken out as TEF was more dependent on buy to let and less on first timers than the average. More probably a wash for TEF -although foreign cash buyers for buy to let are not going to be put off en mass by a measly 3% and those buying for a student offspring (and thus I assume free of the 3%) not at all.

Be interesting to see the detailed regs as a foreign cash buyer does not need to raise a buy to let mortgage. What happens to a foreign cash buyer in 4 years time when their student offspring has vacated and it is put on the market as a let. Do they pay the 3% stamp 4 years late?? I'll bet it will be a stamp tax only applied to buy to let mortgages. The cash sales will be too difficult to monitor. Maybe a 2 year waiting period before a cash buyer can let??

Never-the-less I expect TEF will benefit from the mood change on the builders in general. The budget helps that mood change along. Whole sector undervalued at present and cash rich. ALl can weather reasonably comfortably a "normal" recession if it comes. No need for such low P/E ratios for a growing and profitable sector.
29 Nov '15

I'm a dove on the budget.

1bn taken out of the sector via the stamp 3% but 2bn put in with enhanced help to buy.

More importantly is the signal that the government wants to build more and sees the existing structure of builders as the vehicle to do that -helped by benign central bank finance and regulations, some targeted financial help, some pressure on planning permission via central government and some help with land availability. I think this announcement is the turning point in the market and will help change the mood towards Christmas.

Not stated but assumed in his approach that rising land values is compatible (and perhaps necessary) to rising volumes of house building and not it’s enemy. He has tried to tweak demand a bit away from individual buy to and to first time buyers.

All economists would agree that is a good approach. Blocks of apartments for rent to young successful professionals by professional manages have lower maintenance and letting costs (plus lower void rates) than our existing buy to let market and in a competitive market these savings will be passed on to the renters thus helping the economy. It is probably a 10% efficiency gain.

This type of blocks elsewhere generally do not use letting agents at 10% as the sector does now. They do their own marketing at a much lower margin. Many have an on site “janitor” who does minor repairs directly and at a much lower cost. letters and toward profession letting by block.

Some have been banging on about rising prices as something that should be stopped but almost all means of doing so kill off the economics for builders to take more risk and expand volume. A period of high and rising prices during a shortage is necessary if build rates are to go up.

Also the renters have more security in the sense that they will always be able to rent the specific flat and not be subject to the risk that the landlord may take the flat off the market for personal reasons.
29 Nov '15

I'm a dove on the budget.

1bn taken out of the sector via the stamp 3% but 2bn put in with enhanced help to buy.

More importantly is the signal that the government wants to build more and sees the existing structure of builders as the vehicle to do that -helped by benign central bank finance and regulations, some targeted financial help, some pressure on planning permission via central government and some help with land availability. I think this announcement is the turning point in the market and will help change the mood towards Christmas.

Not stated but assumed in his approach that rising land values is compatible (and perhaps necessary) to rising volumes of house building and not it’s enemy. He has tried to tweak demand a bit away from individual buy to
All economists would agree that is a good approach. Blocks of apartments for rent to young successful professionals by professional manages have lower maintenance and letting costs (plus lower void rates) than our existing buy to let market and in a competitive market these savings will be passed on to the renters thus helping the economy. It is probably a 10% efficiency gain.

This type of blocks elsewhere generally do not use letting agents at 10% as the sector does now. They do their own marketing at a much lower margin. Many have an on site “janitor” who does minor repairs directly and at a much lower cost. letters and toward profession letting by block and to first time buyers.

Some have been banging on about rising prices as something that should be stopped but almost all means of doing so kill off the economics for builders to take more risk and expand volume. A period of high and rising prices during a shortage is necessary if build rates are to go up.

Also the renters have more security in the sense that they will always be able to rent the specific flat and not be subject to the risk that the landlord may take the flat off the market for personal reasons.
25 Nov '15

anybody shorting the sector just got badly burned.

Volume high. Hopefully our seller is sated and we can get back to 4.20 next week on results.
24 Nov '15

I'm all invested. Topped up too early on this dip. Have a 4.15 top up average since the last peak. Drat. All builders looking very jucy right now -my preference is still TEF.Roll on December 2nd.
24 Nov '15

Yes a Furlong buy right now would do wonders. I think we are all jittery. Might draw a line under the price.


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