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Member Info for steph

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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,576
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 28

Last Posted: Fri 12:15

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

14 May '16

Good to see the volume

Some fund is selling and the sooner they clear the sooner we can return to at least a 360 to 400 traiding range. This sub 340 range is silly -even factoring in all the room and gloom.
12 May '16

Brendon Thomas reported for the TEF patch of Tower Hamlets, Newham, Hackney and City of London:

"demand still outstripping supply"

others say the slow down is exclusively the more expensive properties -which in London means above 1.5m.
12 May '16

well put. Nothing to add. Most of our accelerated profits are 3 years out and the market is assuming we will be in decline out there. The big money simply has not read the reports and not realized most of that is locked in. So a small bit of big money coming out has led to this exaggerated retrace. Buried treasure.
11 May '16

ON this latest retrace it just keeps surprising me on resistance levels. With some justification I thought 4.20 was a floor. Then with a lot more justification I thought on the recent dilution the 3.60 offer price would form a firm floor as it did on the penultimate. Not so.

Shorting is not increasing -although to have any at all is hard for me to understand. I get it to have shorted against 4.80 last may but not this winter. At some point the shorters we have will need to come out of their postions and not just freeze them. The share will fly when they do. We will know if some funds are coming out a bit within a month.

I still expect the year end results to give us a boost when broker recommendations are reconfirmed and profit forcasts are upgraded. A better than forcast divi might be on the cards. maybe will be the catalyst to shake off the shorters and we can really shoot past 4.20 in short order. whole market a bit jittery over Trump and June 23 but not much down. For my money I expect an in vote and a bit of a general FTSE lift after that. Trump wining the US election could be a trigger for a major US market retrace that might drag t the FTSE and thus us down a bit in the late fall.
11 May '16

commercial road e1 is great location. London hospital refurb with lots of well paid medical staff looking for local flats so they can work the long hours they are protesting about, cross rail uplift and hipster haven at brick Lane with Tower Bridge within walking distance. depending on exact location they should get 800/sq foot or more. Area still scruffy enough in pockets to give TEF site value hunters a chance. Similar to their successful The Highway development in E1 jusrt across from Tobacco Dock.
11 May '16

excellent news and well deserved for TEF management.

I only wish that the excellent management, excellent site selection and future facing business plan would translate into stronger and more predictable short term SP performance -but as Terr say this is a share for the patient and patience will be generously rewarded. We just don't know when precisely.
10 May '16

It really could happen. I think the odds are still significant against though. People will vote for the devil they know in the privacy of the booth --more so than pollsters can divine.

I'd expect Brexit to have a negative effect on the markets on the 24th but not enough to stop TEF rising back somewhat this year to levels previously achieved. May require spring finals in 2017 for us to pass May 2015 high of 4.93 though. This retrace has done some real damage to the short term SP.
10 May '16

Bovis and Hill both aiming to grow

Bovis Homes remains on track to deliver the growth it plans for 2016, it said today, while Essex-based housebuilder Hill has revealed a five year growth strategy.

Reporting on the period from January 1 2016 to the present day, Bovis said that the housing market continued to be positive, with weekly sales rates improving in recent weeks to move in line with 2015 at 0.65 net private reservations per site. It has launched 17 new sites for sale and said that a number of its sites had sold out earlier than anticipated, so its total number of sales outlets had remained “broadly constant” during the year so far.

“The forthcoming EU referendum has had no discernible impact on our business with strong demand across all our operating areas,” Bovis’ statement read.

As stated in February, Bovis said that this year’s legal completions would be weighted towards the second half of the year, similar to 2015.

“We continue to drive improvements in our operations across the enlarged business with strong investment in our people and focus on delivering value across the group,” said David Ritchie, Bovis’ ceo.

Reporting its 2015 results, housebuilder Hill revealed its five year growth strategy, with plans to increase its home completions from more than 1,500 homes (achieved last year) to in excess of 2,500. It aims to increase turnover to £850 million and profits to £90 million by 2020.

In 2015, Hill’s pre-tax profits grew 69% to £31 million against 2014. Turnover climbed 18% to £304 million. Its homes built carried an average selling price of £470,000.

“We’re now recognised as a major player with a track record of success in producing distinctive, high quality homes, and we have a growing reputation as partner of choice for joint venture projects,” said Hill’s ceo Andy Hill.

For all the latest housebuilding news and events visit
10 May '16

yes all talk and no trousers. To really get the build rate up to the 60,000 or so needed to meet new demand for London and make a bit of headway into the backlog you need to release some greenbelt. No party was proposing that. Kick the can down the road with a bit of tinkering with the few publically owned sites and minor policy changes is the order of the day.

Personally I'd have a once in a 2 generation greenbelt release following a technical study of where the release could best be made to make best use of existing rail networks and land suitability. Probably result in some new towns clustered around an existing or new station. I'd also introduce some draconian CPO powers targeted to speed up redevelopment and densification around some key stations maybe as part of a parliamentary bill such as we had for Crossrail. Cross rail 1 and 2 would be logical stations to cluster around. Need to get out of LA nimby mentality. This is a national economic issue and should be dealt with at a national level.

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