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Member Info for steph

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Member Since: Wed, 6th Aug 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 3,636
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 60

Last Posted: 8 Jul '16

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

24 Jun '16

Record postal votes was not good for remain. lot of UK pensioners who just like to vote early and by post.

What a pain but I met all my margin calls and can wait it out.tef will rise on improving results.

Lower pound might help and new jobs coming due to offices not completed but already let.
23 Jun '16

Record postal votes is good news for remain.

We have 1.2 million Brits living in EU eligible to vote. In spite of a demographic that fsvours leave they will overwhelmingly vote remain. I doubt if the polling methodologies have picked them up correctly.
22 Jun '16

9% margin for remain.
22 Jun '16

sensible friends of mine are leavers. Massive split between youth and over 65's. Bit unfair. It is for them we leave or stay.

Even Greater London has wild variations on voting intentions only a couple of miles apart. . Scotland who are fiercely independent most strongly in. EU could not be this great sovereignty sucking monster Boris makes it out to be.

I think stay will win by 5% to 10% margin but that is no certainty. I don't think project fear has landed many blows on that agenda. It is just getting ignored and written off as expert opinion as a derogatory swipe. Khan made up a good line in response to talk about "project hate" bit harsh but effective. Now all we need is the Greens or SMP to talk about "project loathing"

Respect for Boris dropping by the day. Good campaigner but he just makes up the facts to fit the argument. Surprised at Ruth Davidson. Future tory PM I would imagine. IN Canada and states premiers and governors are often national candidates. Does one no harm to run something. Can see why Tories in Scotland have been gaining a bit. Once labour collapses completely in Scotland it will be a 2 party fight up there and the SMP is bound to trip up sooner or later.
21 Jun '16

well at least the SP did not plunge as it often does when I top up. Got 3.38

Friday is a great unknown. With a remain vote we might be circa 4 quid. A huge leap from here. AL leave vote will be very unknowable. Market might close Friday and over the weekend all sorts of reassurances will be made both phony and real so that by Monday maybe not too much change.

I'm heavily positioned for an in vote but can survive an out. I've cut back on my leverage from May.
20 Jun '16

thanks for the info.

Come remain vote any short position will be a serious burden. We could easily be above 4 quid in a couple of weeks. Not so sure we would plunge enough on Brexit vote to be worth the risk. There is a lot of resistance just over 3 quid. So to gain potentially 40 pts on a short against the risk of the share going up 60 points on remain with the odds as they are now seems to me to be a bad bet for them. Maybe they are starting to realize it.
20 Jun '16

have not said that for a while. Of course it is a bet on remain. Us lagging the sector bounce back on improved remain polling data did it for me. We can rise 40+ points by Friday close.
20 Jun '16

tefs patch of London still holding very well. Near prime inner London towards the east regeneration. areas. Who of us really wanted a flat in Kensington anyway.
20 Jun '16

another big bound back this morning after Friday's big bounce back.

I suspect it is all on improved odds for stay due to Farange's stupid poster and the assassination shifting sentiment. Not all polls are published and the financial sector does their own.

Boy if we get this sort of bounce just on shortening odds of Brexit imagine what Friday might bring with a leave victory. We may well have been held back for months on this.

TEF is lagging a bit the sector bounce but we generally have delayed reaction to news of a few days.

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