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Member Info for mumerologist


Member Since: Sun, 8th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 296
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 0

Last Posted: 25 Mar '14



8 Jan '14


In the last two months I have made 13.5% on my core holding and 10% on my trading, but I got a lot more fun from trading. Just sold my trading holding so the comparison might not be so good next month if there is no pull back.
3 Jan '14


£1.20 is the continuation of the linear trend, but I am putting my bet on the trend continuing to be non-linear so its £1.45 for me.
8 Dec '13


Thanks for the discussion and the chart, I can see why yours is 24p, nearer to my longer term, the regression uses all the prices not just the extremes, but either way we are saying the same thing and looking for the same signal. Best of luck, I am currently in at 76.5 and will be putting a stop loss on if we go through 80. There could be some dithering there due the effect of people using other chart signals even if we continue up to the high 80's or it might mean that we are back on the snake again, better to be safe than sorry.
8 Dec '13


The reason I think that the longer term trend is the right one is that over the next year it implies a growth of 31p in the price but the shorter term trend only 8p which seems implausible to me. If anything I will be looking for a steeper linear trend to occur after the results next Feb to keep the price inside the long term non-linear trend since nov 2011, which the current price is currently creeping along just above the bottom channel after crossing from the upper channel. If the price is under 77 by Xmas then we could be out of the longer term trends and in for a dismal year if the latest movement is a new trend rather than a crossing. Prices need watching over the next few weeks they could be significant indicators of where we are going next year.
8 Dec '13


Your chart is roughly the current regression line with tight confidence limits. I would only raise one concern that it could also be viewed as the crossing movement within a longer term regression line going back to May 2012. At the moment the price is at the bottom of both channels, the interpretation problem will arise when the price nears the top of the recent channel, about 80.5p, is that the top or is it going back to the longer term trend, there is about an 8p difference.


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