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Member Info for mumerologist


Member Since: Sun, 8th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 302
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 0

Last Posted: 20 Jan '15



24 Jan '14


So not a good time to buy because you are expecting further falls, at least under todays close. So the question is how much further and what price should we looking for. Should we wait until MACD turns up and if so by how much. Should we wait until the price has turned up and is say over todays close again and if we should then what was the use of saying that it would go under todays close if we were not going to buy at a lower price than that. If MACD is going to help it needs to be more specific, vague broad generalisations are not going to cut the mustard. I am currently out, will MACD tell me when to get back in. It will in time but probably at a price higher that what I sold at and what use is that. I am looking for 80 by next Friday, but it might be longer. MACD though will not hit bottom until at least a few days later and it will then be too late. If MACD has not turned up by results day is your advice to stay out until it does?

24 Jan '14


I have another good lagging indicator, passing the 20th floor window after falling off the 30th floor, it is a very good indicator of where you might be going next, but it would have been more useful if it had warned you that you standing near the edge. The trouble with MACD is when it crosses the line most of the action has already occurred. Where was MACD when we came off the recent 2 highs, how much had the price already dropped before it indicated that the share price might fall. We knew before MACD spoke that we were falling and we could guess that we were going to continue to fall. What we want to know now is how many more floors before our parachute kicks in and we go up again and again MACD won't speak up until the parachute is already open. My point is that what does MACD add if you are already watching the dynamics of the share price. MACD is calculated from prices that have already fallen, but before the price started to fall MACD was most likely at local high indicating, in real time, that the price might well go on rising. If you look at how MACD has behaved over the last 6 months it spends different periods of time under the line, sometimes short sometimes longer. So a useful insight now would be are we about to enter a short period or a longer period under the line. Perhaps Mr B will be able to tell us.
24 Jan '14


as an indicator has always seemed to me like seeing the black horse running down the road as an indicator that the stable door was open and then using that observation to say that the black horse will probably be out of the stable for a bit more time yet. All true but not really much help. Statistical indicators by their very nature are always about the past, however good they seem they will never be able to tell you in advance when the stable door will be next open. What is needed are leading indicators not lagging ones but chartists concentrate on lagging ones which has always seemed a bit strange given the problem they are trying to solve. Extrapolating a lagging indicator does not make it a leading indicator.
24 Jan '14


89.4. Another week at least of going nowhere though before that, probably two.
16 Jan '14


The traditional pre-results party game of pin the chart on the share graph seems in full swing again.


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