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Member Info for Kyusho

Member Since: Mon, 29th Sep 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 517
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 14

Last Posted: 23 Jul '14

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

26 Feb '14

Solid results. £200m cash to be returned to shareholders through special divi; we can expect circa this amount every year on top of the maintenance dividend which will remain 1-2% NAV. At a latter stage in the cycle we can expect the annual special dividend payments to increase further as the company divests in land. Emphasis on maximising value over volumes which should climb circa 14k before flattening out. I expect this to test the 140p I forecast last year over the coming months; entry to FTSE 100 will provide uplift. Strong hold.
12 Jan '14

Hi All, looking good here. We have finally achieved my forecasted 120p for year end, albeit a couple of weeks later than expected (I blame the signals Carney has been sending to the market). Things are looking good and Help to Buy still seems to have the support of Cameron; the tories need high house prices to secure votes in the forthcoming election. In addition worse than forecasted construction output has helped keep Help to Buy critics quiet, and should ensure interest rates remain low, which is good new here. Roll on 140p at Spring results.

On another note, does anyone have any questions they would like me to put to the Sales and Marketing director- if so post them up by this evening and I will get answers for your questions (intelligent questions only).
22 Dec '13

Although the market has indeed welcomed the certainty over the Fed decision, there is still a great deal of uncertainty hanging over this sector which is holding the share price back. The decision to pull FLS money for mortgage lending, and redirect this to business lending was not a game changer in itself, but the message it contatined was important. There is now uncertainty over the continuation of Help to Buy in its current format; many of the sales here are dependent upon this scheme. VInce Cable has recently called for the scheme to be reconsidered: and BOE is also monitoring the situation. I believe the share price here will continue to be held back whilst this media talk of housing bubbles continues. We would certainly have already reached £1.20+ and have been promoted to the FTSE 100 without this uncertainty.
28 Nov '13

Another great reason to hold TEF too, given the client base I feel we are extremely well positioned here over the coming years. Telford have never made one sale under Help to Buy and this reduces our risk exposure given there is now some uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the scheme in its current form over the coming years. I was speaking to the CFO of one of the largest builders the other day, and he mentioned 40% of sales there went through the scheme. Such uncertainty is likely to create volatility within other stocks, but not here =]
28 Nov '13

Wrong- FLS is not the mortgage guarantee scheme April showers is talking about, that is the second part of Help to Buy which is unaffected as I mentioned. FLS has nothing to do with underwriting counter party risk, is it aimed at channelling cheap money to lenders so they can lend more at lower interest rates. The effect of scrapping the FLS has the potential to increase mortgage repayments by around 1%. It is likely however that the effect on sales volumes will not be significant, as the vast majority of the problem has been buyers with small deposits which is still being addressed through Help to Buy (of which mortgage guarantee is a part of). I see this announcement as creating more stability within the housing sector, as FLS mainly benefits people who would have posed a greater risk of default.

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