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Member Info for Kyusho

Member Since: Mon, 29th Sep 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 562
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 31

Last Posted: Today 01:53

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

30 Mar '15

Very pleasing to see this finally move a little towards its true valuation as 65% of my portfolio is stuffed in here. But Sain, FYI: 12 month return:

TW. 40%

TEF 20%!

I know which I'd rather have been in over the past year!!! You also seem to have misinterpreted my comments regarding, TEF. I said TEF will outperform TW. and its peers over the coming years, but not by as much as you think for the reasons stated! On a side note, Inland homes has been the star performer over the past month- watch for results tomorrow, should be interesting.

30 Mar '15

Persimmon's market cap is still a few million higher than TW. The only reason it has recently lost ground is because Persimmon is now trading ex dividend and thus the market capitalisation has dropped by approximately the size of the capital payback of approximately £290mn. TW. is paying back approximately the same amount of capital to shareholders over the next few months through special and final dividends but currently trades cum dividend. Once TW. goes ex dividend on both the above the market cap will drop by approximately another £290mn restoring the previous differential. Barrat aren't giving away nearly as much capital and thus will likely remain above both ourselves and PSN in terms of market cap, ceterus paribus.
25 Mar '15

I agree, its always great to hear some counter arguments as sometimes this board can become a little one sided. Hearing a different point of view can sometimes help us to question our own analysis, thereby deepening our understanding of our investments, the business and sector in which we operate- I'm all for that.

Sain FYI, TW controlls 110,000 plots of strategic land it is progressing through the system. Last year it progressed 10,779 strategic plots through the planning phase and added these into its 75,000 plot strong short term landbank (6 years supply). Last financial year 39% of its 12,454 completions were from strategic land and over the coming years it will seek to increase the number of completions coming from this low cost land source to C. 50%, thereby significantly enhancing margins and allowing further bumper capital returns to investors.
25 Mar '15

Very nice rise here today, my top up at 63p now looking cheap! I too feel we will test 70p here over the next week.. bring on 31 March! Any drop back below 65p and I will add more.
25 Mar '15

What makes you think this differential is going to change over the next few years though? Tw. and Bdev are going to massively ramp up dividends. Yes you will see some uplift in TEF's EPS from forward sold units at higher margins that finally comethough into its P&L, but you fail to recognize that TW. for example will be churning out massively improved margins too; it aims to complete in excess of 50% of completions from strategic land purchased without planning permission during the recession and thus growth in EPS here will not outstrip growth in the likes of TW. and Bdev by as much as you think over the next 3 years. Given TW. will ramp up their special dividend even further, in excess if £250mn, more like £300mn+ next year I think you have underestimated the big builders and over estimated what will happen here.

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