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Member Info for Kyusho

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Member Since: Mon, 29th Sep 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 544
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 0

Last Posted: 25 Aug '15

8 Apr '15

A quick post as I'm on the mobile. The selected three you mention surged c. +50% from November to march. The masterful move from an illiquid tef into these three, two liquid, stocks netted me significant profits during a period tef delivered nothing. Still being a fan of tef and aware of the undervaluation and timing differences in results I moved a large lump back into tef around march having benefitted to the tune of +50%. I now have a fair chunk back in cash as several of my holdings have surged, including BG. Oil. As mentioned I believe long term tef will indeed out perform its larger peers, but not by as much as many believe. I trade in and out of a handful of stocks, taking advantage of price differentials as they appear. If political instability causes a dip in the larger builders over the next month I will consider increasing my holdings. If you decide to reply, please do see in a non patronising way as we don't do that here!
7 Apr '15

Should see a nice rise here tomorrow, can't believe my luck.. only just bought some at 840p last week!
7 Apr '15

Rubbish, that was a genuine question and serves as an illustration of how you constantly try and twist peoples words. I bring a balanced view point and don't constantly wear your rose tinted specs. If I was as pedantic as you I could bring you up on many of your posts and how you have been epicly wrong but I shan't! Now back on topic please, this is getting rather boring now.
7 Apr '15

You talk alot of crap Sain, and have a way or twisting ones words. I can only think the fact that TW. has outperformed TEF today has annoyed you! Not once did I ever say TEF would not out perform TW or Bdev over the short term, why else would I have 65% of my portfolio in here? I stated that some of the warped forecasts on here are unlikely to materialise for the reasons I have stated- If you read my posts again more carefully you might learn something! I said EPS growth here will not outstrip the likes of TW by.. and here comes the key bit.. as much as you think over the long term and then proceeded to spell out the reasons for you! If you want it spelt out again... TW. will hit about £2 over the next few of years, and you can also expect it to pay about 50pence per share in dividends over the next 4. That is C. 70% total share holder return... TEF would have to be at about £7 to beat that. I expect TEF to outperform that total share holder return, hence why 65% of my portfolio is in here, but its no where near the margin of out performance many on here talk about! You seem bitter TEF has only gained 27% on the last 12 months, whilst TW has gained 43%. I got out of TW and added more here when this only had returned 10% so very pleased! Onwards and upwards. TW. goes ex dividend tomorrow for a small 1.32p dividend. Also the above calcs don't even factor in DRIP compounding!
1 Apr '15

(INL) continues to bring land through the planning process to sell to hungry house builders. But the key driver of the explosive growth in the six months to December was the business of building homes itself. Completions jumped from 47 a year earlier to 199, and the resulting cashflow enabled payment of a maiden interim dividend.

The company is currently operating on six sites, but further outlets are planned for the second half, and forward sales currently stand at £30m. Inland also uses joint venture partners as a way of boosting the capital it has available, thus accelerating its build rate. Late last year it entered into an agreement with Europa Capital on a site in Aylesbury that has the potential for 400 residential plots.

Inland is also developing a further revenue stream by renting out properties, and rental income in the first half nearly doubled to £298,000. Significant land sales were earmarked, but none took place: delays mean these will probably take place in the second half.

Reported net assets rose 11 per cent to £67.7m. But development sites are held at the lower of cost and net realisable value, and do not include the uplift that comes with gaining planning consent. Earlier estimates suggest that crystallising this hidden value would push the book value over 100p.

Analysts at finnCap are forecasting 2015 full-year pre-tax profits of £12m (from £8.6m in 2014).

TOUCH: 66-67p 12-MONTH HIGH: 69p LOW: 43p
Half-year to 31 Dec Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2013 12.8 3.6 1.4 nil
2014 54.5 6.1 1.9 0.3
% change +326 +68 +43 -
Ex-div:09 Jul

Payment:31 Jul

IC View:
Shares in Inland Homes have already soared well ahead of our recent buy tip (57p, 19 February 2015). Given the growth profile and the unrealised value, we see no reason to change our advice. Buy.
30 Mar '15

The stage is set nicely for us tomorrow! Could well test 70p, fingers crossed..
30 Mar '15

Very pleasing to see this finally move a little towards its true valuation as 65% of my portfolio is stuffed in here. But Sain, FYI: 12 month return:

TW. 40%
TEF 20%!

I know which I'd rather have been in over the past year!!! You also seem to have misinterpreted my comments regarding, TEF. I said TEF will outperform TW. and its peers over the coming years, but not by as much as you think for the reasons stated! On a side note, Inland homes has been the star performer over the past month- watch for results tomorrow, should be interesting.
30 Mar '15

Persimmon's market cap is still a few million higher than TW. The only reason it has recently lost ground is because Persimmon is now trading ex dividend and thus the market capitalisation has dropped by approximately the size of the capital payback of approximately £290mn. TW. is paying back approximately the same amount of capital to shareholders over the next few months through special and final dividends but currently trades cum dividend. Once TW. goes ex dividend on both the above the market cap will drop by approximately another £290mn restoring the previous differential. Barrat aren't giving away nearly as much capital and thus will likely remain above both ourselves and PSN in terms of market cap, ceterus paribus.
25 Mar '15

I agree, its always great to hear some counter arguments as sometimes this board can become a little one sided. Hearing a different point of view can sometimes help us to question our own analysis, thereby deepening our understanding of our investments, the business and sector in which we operate- I'm all for that.

Sain FYI, TW controlls 110,000 plots of strategic land it is progressing through the system. Last year it progressed 10,779 strategic plots through the planning phase and added these into its 75,000 plot strong short term landbank (6 years supply). Last financial year 39% of its 12,454 completions were from strategic land and over the coming years it will seek to increase the number of completions coming from this low cost land source to C. 50%, thereby significantly enhancing margins and allowing further bumper capital returns to investors.
25 Mar '15

Very nice rise here today, my top up at 63p now looking cheap! I too feel we will test 70p here over the next week.. bring on 31 March! Any drop back below 65p and I will add more.

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