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Member Info for Kyusho

Member Since: Mon, 29th Sep 2008

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 531
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 6

Last Posted: Sun 01:07

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

30 Jul '14

TNAV per share is currently 73.6 pence. Traditionally the sector trades at about 2 x NAV, although caution in the market means we are currently some way off that. If TNAV grows at 9% over the next couple of years that will yield an implied share price of (1.09^2 x 73.6)x2 = 174.9p. This very crude, back of the hand, calculation gives some indication of where I believe we'll top out over the next couple of years- so yes, we still have substantial upside here but the journey to around this price will obviously be volatile.

30 Jul '14

Rediclous comparison; as mentioned there are more shares currently in circulation. In addition the company is now completely different having disposed of north american assets to pay down debt.
23 Jul '14

I am predicting a share price of CIRCA 400pence around March next year, in the run up to Full year results.This could ofcourse materialise earlier if new information surfaces, as financial markets are forward looking. My estimation is based around a basic sales driven DCF model, with very minimal growth in ASP over the next few years, but reasonable volume growth. You will see from my past posts that I have forecast the share price of Taylor Wimpey with a very good degree of accuracy. I must admit however, that I am not so familiar with this company. Barrington, I don't see your 280p target materialising- 290p maybe. We shall see... anyone else brave enough to provide their estimates for half and full year?
22 Jul '14

Personally I forsee this terrible share price performance continuing until September, when volumes should pick up as we look forward to full year results. I then see us trading at circa 400p.
16 Jul '14

Although I agree with some of your comments, the market does not see it that way else we would be trading at around 400p. My analysis is aimed at explaining the absolutely diabolic share price performance here (which is now negative for the past 52 weeks) and is not a reflection of my own views, otherwise I would not be a large shareholder here. I actually work in the construction sector myself so I am very familiar with the entire build, costing and forecasting processes. I am talking about cost inflation that occurs between forward sales and build completion- in a rising market we will not capitalise on any asp growth for forward sold units but will fit the ever increasing rise in construction cost. This coupled with the fact that CGT will be levied on our main purchasers from next year is, IMO, contributing to a terrible share price performance here. I expect us to ofcourse outperform current market consensus, but at the same time some here are far too wildly optimistic- the market does not agree with your current enterprise valuation for a reason.

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