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RNS EXCLUSIVE: Cabot praise 3D seismic mapping after successful winter programme

Member Info for redknight1

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Member Since: Tue, 2nd Mar 2010

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 712
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 5

Last Posted: Mon 11:07

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

7 Sep '16

Well done Mr O! Long sighted as usual...

In the next couple of posts I shall repost the analysis I've put on ADVFN.

The cost assumptions are based on calculations done by a couple of guys over there who are much cleverer than me...
7 Sep '16

Oh and I've bought another 10,000 today taking me to c150,000 at an average of c84.5...try getting that many shares at that price in the next few weeks...let alone months and years...
7 Sep '16

The sp has been slammed by MMs because shortsighted PIs who don't understand accounting have read the report negatively.

First, ALL the production information was already known from the 25 July Production Report. So the financial information could have been inferred from that.

Personally I am DELIGHTED that the EBITDA loss is only 1.187 million Euros in a quarter when we produced at only 40% of full production which we will achieve in the next couple of months (i.e. 4412 tonnes of copper compared to capacity of 11,250 tonnes). In fact we produced at less than half the annualised rate achieved in August alone!

With regard to the Costs...these will PLUMMET next quarter and when we reach 9.5m tonnes mined, because most of these costs are relatively fixed and the Company's last forecast was $1.56/lb C1 costs and $1.90/lb C3 costs (i.e those pertinent to ENITDA and Net Profit respectively).

So to oversimplify, average costs of $2.30/lb at 4412 would be 90 cents at 11250...but of course life is not that simple because there is the variable element of energy costs and while most of the labour costs are fixed there may be a variable element at higher levels of production.

However, we have been using contractors in the run-up to full production so some of those costs will be replaced by full time employees.

But hey...get a reality check! Why is it in the nature of Brits to fear the worst look for the worst and then interpret news in the worst possible way...?

These figures are HISTORIC. At CURRENT copper prices and at the unchanged management projections of $1.56 C1 (cash) and $1.90 (bottom line) costs, we would be making 44 cents/lb net cashflow; and 10 cents/lb net profit...

Anyone who has sold has been mugged by the MMs when dismal jimmies put the worst possible, knee-jerk spin on these results.

They are 2.5 months out of date. They represent less than 50% of the production rate we have been running for OVER A MONTH. They are effectively PRE-PRODUCTION numbers in a quarter where there was massive disruption due to the environmental suspension...

If you put the worst spin and have either dumped shares or not bought at these bargain basement prices, you'll be sorry when the Institutional and Directors Buys emerge and the Q3 Production Report is released...

AIMHO as usual...
26 Aug '16

Hi Mr O...managed to get another 2500 at 83.80...
25 Aug '16

When the results are announced no later than 10 September (based on last year), they will be able to give an indication on production for July/August, i.e. 2/3 of Q3...I will be surprised if we are not cashflow positive by then...

The other thing I am expecting is shares bought by the new GFD, because they are always expected to show support when they are appointed and obviously he can't buy before the end of the close period....

However...the bigger in the woodpile is the price of copper...I know the Chinese have stockpiled loads but my opinion is that this is for two reasons:

1 The emergence of the Shanghai Commodities Exchange, including a Futures market in Copper

2 That the Chinese KNOW the copper supply/demand equation is tight over the next 5 years and beyond and, with relatively little copper mined in China they are getting ahead of the game

It's an inevitability that the copper price will rise to $3.00 and beyond...grades are falling all the time and it takes 10 years to bring a new mine on stream...

Patience is a virtue...

AIMHO as usual...
22 Aug '16

Phew! Patience is a virtue...

Last week I tried repeatedly to buy more for the wife's ISA at 86.5 and utterly failed...

Just bought 2786 at 85.99...

Onwards and upwards...
22 Aug '16


You probably missed I bought about 13k more in the last week or so...overall average increased to 86p...
22 Aug '16

It's a guy...
22 Aug '16

"This company owes it's market cap..."

Where do you get this rubbish from...

NET current liabilities in the last results were 18 million Euros and we must be close to generating net cashflow...

EMED's MCap is 116 million Euros...
17 Aug '16

You seem to have a pretty aggressively negative view...

So here's my prediction and you can tell me I'm wrong in a year's time...

By the end of Q3 we will already be generating positive net cashflows;

By the year end we will produce positive EBITDA;

In 2017 we will be generating meaningful profits, out of which...

We will declare a maiden dividend.

Now that, of course, is an opinion, but I am basing it on my own calculations, which surprisingly accord with the views of 'three credible analysts' who have a professional reputation to protect.

What is the basis of your opinion that we are not going to make profits until 'copper goes ballistic'; and

What is your definition of 'ballistic', as the analysts are using modest copper price assumptions...?

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