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Member Since: Thu, 13th May 2010

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 10,518
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 15

Last Posted: Sun 09:19

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Sun 09:19

Hi ragnar, good to see we are both in the same ballpark with regards Q118 results, I have it at $960/oz compared to your $955/oz.

However I think we will both have been too conservative, the basket price in Q417 quarter was $963/oz according to the company and we can all agree that it's risen in the three months following. This is what I discovered looking into the details (posted 2nd Oct)

One other subtle factor I've noticed is my basket price forecasts have been increasingly less accurate. The method of calculation hasn't changed, but the margin of error has grown. If this was a random anomaly there wouldn't be a linear trend emerging which there clearly is

Check out my estimates compared to the reported basket price below.

end of Jun 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $862 v $859 (-$3)
end of Sep 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $929 v $937 (+$8)
end of Dec 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $858 v $881 (+$23)
end of Mar 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $920 v $951 (+$31)
end of Jun 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $917 v $963 (+$46)
end of Sep 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual *est: $960 v $1010 (+$50)

This coincides with the rising price of PGMs and is in my opinion indicative of producers receiving a better spread selling physical each quarter. The demand for palladium and rhodium has been incredible and it is widely known that producers sell above the market spot price if demand is there.

Therefore we might expect the premium on the spread to have been even higher this past quarter given the volatility in the PM markets.

To be cautious the reported basket price will probably sit around $995 which is still a fantastic quarterly gain for us, boosting EBITDA and cash but if the trend of higher physical spreads has continued then a basket price closer to $1010/oz is likely.
Sat 02:00

At last count Rhodium jumped to $1300/oz! A whisker away lol
Fri 09:56

Last quarter the most we've seen to date and even more so two weeks into this quarter.

July was a 'drag' compared to August and September and pulled the quarter average down. I think the cost of Pheonix will have been paid for over two quarters with cash to spare, and production will jump around 15% from our current 17,000 ounce rate possibly more further out.

Back of the envelope calculation suggests there is potential for 20,000 ounces and although cash costs will rise as a result of higher operating costs at Pheonix, EBITDA and cash generated will grow at a quicker pace.
Fri 05:03

Has very nearly reached the price of gold.

Less than two weeks ago $1270/oz would put the two metals on par, gold has also climbed higher but I fancy Rhodium will become more expensive by the end of this year, or possibly even this month

Rhodium makes up 13.5% of our basket of PGMs and has more than doubled since July 2016 when it traded around $575/oz
Thu 16:55

Newmont Mining Corp (NEM.N), eager to replenish tight gold reserves, said on Tuesday it would buy Canadian explorer Miramar Mining Corp MAE.TO MNG.A for C$1.5 billion (US$1.52 billion).

The all-cash deal, which won unanimous approval from Miramar�s board of directors, will give world No. 2 gold producer Newmont control of the undeveloped Hope Bay project in the far north Canadian territory of Nunavut.

The project has indicated and inferred resources of 10.7 million ounces, according to Miramar�s Web site.

Our project is in a much busier location, there are majors nearby producing hundreds of thousands of ounces of gold each year and they will be looking for another reserve or indeed a resource like Hope Bay to supplement their depleting assets.
Thu 16:05

I like this buy in range, Interims weren't awful, they paid a dividend and this pushed net debt up which is expected to be a temporary thing, reversing in the second half. Shares went ex div and the share price has been dragged down. Now is the long wait until January but the shareprice should rebound around Christmas as short term holders or traders rebuild their positions. Outlook for 2018 is positive, some question marks over the delivery of property sales and the extent of growth
Wed 18:48

The previous drilling turned up nothing of significance. The latest RNS details and CEO comments is not in reference to any of the previous drill campaigns but rather the new data which is at this stage still preliminary in nature. Nothing has been inferred at this stage.
Wed 18:30

Interesting to watch this play out. I don't think anyone, the CEO included, has enough details yet to be making assertions the like of which have been presented today. There has not been a drilling campaign yet but perhaps Newmont will fund the JV. There was a lot of hype surrounding Unity at Firetower back in the day too and that actually has an inferred resource. Short term looks like a good ride for the small pi's but once the dust settles and drill results come in will the CEO be quite so enthusiastic with his choice of words..
5 Oct '17

Good move Driving, wish I could have doubled my holding, but I've not added much since the last surge. I expect there will be a spike to 13p in the next 2-3 weeks and looking further out there is no reason this share can't achieve a higher market valuation.

Those numbers ragnar pointed out are impressive as things stand! Last years FY EBITDA of $18.3m will pale in comparison to what we are on course to achieve if PGMs stay resilient, Rhodium has rocketed up to $1200 this week.

In the last quarter alone EBITDA jumped to a new record and if Pheonix completes sometime in the second quarter of our financial year then $25m+ should be feasible this financial year.
4 Oct '17

Positive looking set of results, near surface in the 1-2g/t range

The existing 301koz resource across 600 meters strike length has been infilled now which means confidence in the result will move the majority of that to indicated category and provide a more accurate resource grade

Added to that are the new drilling results extending the strike length by more than 900 meters and providing a new inferred resource boosting the overall BAM East Gold project resource size.

Even more exciting is news that " In addition, drilling at the original BAM Zone has successfully identified a potential resource with similar lithology and grades to the BAM East Gold Deposit located 1,000m along strike to the east. The original BAM Zone mineralisation remains open along strike to the east, west and down dip"

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