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Leading commentator Josh Mahony from IG - are we seeing a US$ revaluation?

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Member Since: Mon, 2nd Nov 2015

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 17
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 1

Last Posted: 24 Jul '17

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

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24 Jul '17

Annual Report of HAYT - 129 pages to read! -'Poised for Growth'
20 Jul '17

The HAYT SP is presently largely determined by the AVG SP which on its own is justified by its cash holdings and forward order book. That the HAYT SP is at a slight discount to the merger proposal terms principally reflects the risk the deal will not proceed for some reason. If one thinks the deal will be done and that looks likely then HAYT is essentially a cheap way into AVG. It is a good deal for AVG and once it is a done deal and the logic of the merger is better understood by the market (following brokers notes etc) the potential of the combined business ought to be reflected in a progressive improvement in the AVG price once the deal is completed.

I agree ELB did do a good job over the years but the BOD completely screwed things up big time on a number of fronts all at the same time over the last year or so. That HAYT's balance sheet was stretched was clearly a problem but less so if the required order intake and hence forward order book was in place. If it was then the BOD and the committed larger shareholders would I think not be supporting the present terms.

The HAYT preliminary figures claimed a record order book but that suggestion was due to the addition of Peter Brotherhood and in reality the order book was higher in early 2017 than at the end of March 2017. My reading is that they have been struggling to get the orders in otherwise we would have heard much more of them. Despite sterling weakness part of the problem appears to have been converting many OEM order prospects into orders in a timely manner or at all! Seemingly HAYT has been devoting additional resources to securing those or similar orders but that takes time. Meantime AVG has no certainty of HAYT short term revenue stream (or maybe it has via due diligence!) and has for its own shareholders to pitch its terms to reflect that.

I get the impression that many contributors to these threads have been there to make a turn and already done so but those (perhaps a minority) in for the longer term ought to do well relative to the current price by staying with the merged businesses.
10 Jul '17

Just a thought on seeing that TP Group has today announced plans to raise around £24m to add to existing cash resources to fund existing business and make acquisitions.
3 Jul '17

Hello Sherminator - Most of HAYT BOD in their judgement (Having backed us into a corner perhaps they have come to their senses at last) is recommending AVG bid acceptance versus alternatives. . Although having plenty to say on 'approaches to winning new orders' HAYT has been very quiet of late on announcing firm new orders and it may be that which has weakened their negotiating position. In the circumstances only AVG with a deep enough pocket has come forward. I would have preferred a somewhat better offer but in the circumstances see good potential for the combined operations with hope that they will begin to show their paces by 2018 with an AVG price improvement to reflect that and more to come.
30 Jun '17

A sad situation for HAYT albeit looks a good deal for AVG. During the past year the great future potential of our existing business was badly compromised by all of poor financial management, vastly over optimistic revenue & profit projects from our BOD, followed by major failure to convert heralded order pipeline in a timely manner, and compounded by very dilatory reporting of changed circumstances. Looking ahead we can probably expect a year of transition before the combination of HAYT & AVG are able to begin to show their real potential in 2018 . Hopefully the market will anticipate that and give support to the AVG share price. Roughly speaking for 'remainers' 5p on the AVG share price is worth 1p on each HAYT share.
18 May '17

Is having a non-executive director with a large shareholding a help or hindrance to an agreed merger?
And what about the same question as regards CEO?
27 Apr '17

Today's AVG share price closing near recent high suggests to me they are serious in intent. Still think any offer has to be in the eighties. Nothing new in the simplywallst article just their analysts opinion which I disagree with.
26 Apr '17

Hello Howard - AVG are savvy enough to know that they would be sent away with a flea in their ear at your hoped for level. If they decide go for it there is no point in their messing about. when a good & timely opportunity awaits them.
25 Apr '17

Sherminator ,I can't see your suggestion being viable. It's shares is the currency AVG has to acquire HAYT . It also has more than enough cash to finance the future capital needs of such an acquisition and continue to develop it's own existing activities. The two look a potentially good fit and if merged would have the capacity to provide a good ride for investors. I agree with graham-wales that it would be a shame if HAYT were alone to fall into foreign hands.
21 Apr '17

If AVG make an offer it is likely to be a ************** via either a merger recommended by HAYT directors or failing agreement an offer made directly by AVG to HAYT shareholders. There will be no need for AVG to have a rights issue.They will just plan to issue a certain number of new AVG shares in exchange for a certain number of HAYT shares. If successful AVG have already a surfeit of cash to deal with taking on HAYT's debt. The value of any offer to a HAYT shareholder will be determined by the terms of the ************** and the AVG share price in the market. That could change during an offer period depending on investors perceptions as to both the future progress of the merged entity and the likelihood of the bid being successful.
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