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Member Info for mumerologist

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Member Since: Sun, 8th Jan 2012

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 302
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 0

Last Posted: 20 Jan '15

20 Jan '15

QE is much like a medicine which if taken in small doses will cure you but if taken in large doses will kill you. We are conducting an experiment at the moment to determine how large a small dose can be is with obvious risks if we get it wrong.
19 Jan '15

In case anyone is wondering how the trick works. To execute the trick you need to lay a trail that starts with the hotel and ends with the hotel, it doesn't matter how many intermediate steps there are, you could go on for hours all you have to do is to complete the circle by having the last person owe the hotel.

Hotel owes Butcher
Butcher owes Beef seller
Beef seller owes Hotel

The person lending the 100 euros is just a red herring.

The hotel owner could have equally written an IOU for 100 euros and providing the IOU comes back to him all debts will be settled because all debts are part of a common debt circle in which everybody owes one person in the circle a 100 euros. The net debt is zero and the trick is to disguise that fact.
19 Jan '15

Your conundrum is a well known party trick to play on the mathematically challenged. I thought you were just playing the trick not taking it seriously.
19 Jan '15

A simpler version of that story is: I owe you 100 euros and you owe me a 100 euros. I have a 100 euros which I give to you and then you it back to me. We are now in exactly the same situation as when we started but all debts have been paid off.
2 Jan '15

Can you put me down for 110p. Donation made for last years pathetic attempt, at least some good came out of it.
10 Nov '14

The rules are complicated but there are free calculators on the internet that will do all the sums for you which you will almost certainly need if you have both a core and trading holding in the same share and actively trade. Its the effect on the core holding price that you can lose track of, obviously any profits within the 30 day rule are easy to calculate, but if you make any they are profits, they are not treated as not being made, it is the effect of the core holding price that is ignored.
21 Mar '14

That's two trades at roughly the same price for 1/4 billion shares in a few days. Something must be going on.
12 Feb '14

Look at Q3 results. $4.4bn underlying profit 1.6bn profit before tax. Apply another qtr to expect 5.86bn underlying profit and 2.0 bn profit before tax, take off 1.8bn for unexpected ppi leaving 200m profit to announce. Underlying profit is 6.2bn so 4th qtr better than expected.

AHO will no doubt give a very upbeat talk tomorrow, a company with no more hidden skeletons in the cupboard, improving profit and about to return to the private sector paying dividends. What will the price do, heaven knows, I am staying in to what happens but with a stop loss to give a profit regardless of what happens.
10 Feb '14

Looking at your graph you could also have drawn a similar chart from May to August with two parallel lines forming a nice channel. What did that channel tell you about September onwards? On the basis of that channel we should be at about 100p now but find ourselves at 83. What happened, the channel looked really good with the share price bouncing of both sides, a sure bet to continue?

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