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ASCENT RESOURCES: Gas flows mean cash flows to develop up to 15 wells


Member Info for lemmink


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Member Since: Sun, 20th Sep 2009

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,472
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 31

Last Posted: Thu 23:37


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Thu 23:37

Been feeling the fear lately so I've done a bit of work...

Underlying EPS $0.40 or �0.31
2016 revenues were $766m net of pre commercial revenue and $969m gross (page 15) so I think its ok to add 8p to underlying EPS giving �0.39 (�0.31x969/766)

2016 Production was 140,000 tonnes Cu Cathode equivalent (page 23) = 69% of revenue (page 17) and the 2016 average LME Cu Sales price was $4,860 per tonne (page 18). So I think had LME Cu prices averaged $6,860 and had the tax rate been 20% or 30% the extra EPS generated would have been �0.38 or �0.33 (production x change in price x (100% - tax rate) / 446.8 million shares)

Maintenance spend in 2016 was $640 per tonne of copper cathode (or equivalent) produced (page 23) and fully ramped up, Kaz is expected to produce 300,000 tonnes of copper (cathode equivalent?) per year. So I think at an average price of $6,860 per tonne this would generate extra EPS of �0.29 + �0.44 or �0.26 + �0.44 (change in production x maintenance spend adjusted change in price x (100% - tax rate) / 446.8 million shares) plus (2016 underlying EPS adjusted to �0.39 x 160,000/140,000)

So in summary of the above I think a fully ramped up Kaz with Cu averaging $6,860 per tonne will generate earnings per share of �1.50 or �1.42

Sensitivity analysis gives the following (fully ramped up) EPS values for various average Cu prices�

$6,000 per tonne $2.72 per lb �1.15 or �1.11 puzzled by tax rate seeming insignificant ??
$6,250 per tonne $2.84 per lb �1.25 or �1.20
$6,500 per tonne $2.95 per lb �1.36 or �1.29
$6,750 per tonne $3.06 per lb �1.46 or �1.38
$7,000 per tonne $3.18 per lb �1.56 or �1.47
$7,250 per tonne $3.29 per lb �1.66 or �1.56
$7,500 per tonne $3.40 per lb �1.77 or �1.65
$10,000 per tonne $4.54 per lb �2.79 or �2.54 !!!

I think these are seriously nice numbers, but it is easy for analysis of this nature to be materially wrong due to modelling errors.
Thu 12:57

Thanks for your post, nice to see your still here, lol I was starting to think the old guard might have done a runner.
I'm not really positioned for a sub �8 game ... hope it doesn't happen again!
Welcome aboard uncertain (assuming your new to the Kaz bb?)
Thu 12:46

Might be worth buying? Difficult to say whose to blame for that kind of thing in ukraine, corruption could lie anywhere?
Within the company or within the tax authorities?
Wed 12:58

Seems to be tracking copper quite mechanically at present?
Mon 12:52

Sulking now!
9 Nov '17

2k@�8.03 ... holding 28k ... nervous again ... sub �8 coming?
8 Nov '17

Hello fk1, To be truthful I've spent more time trying to think of bear puns than digesting the last Rns, but I guess they're saying the acquisition integration is going well along with other trading etc, which must be indicating that a share price of over �1 is becoming very justifiable?
8 Nov '17

No need to bearate fk1 for that , I thought it was ok :-)
8 Nov '17

Sold 3k @ �8.30 ish ... holding 26k ... lol that's better, a bit emotional recently
8 Nov '17

2k @ �8.05 ish ... holding 29k ... feeling a little bit uncomfortable , attempting to do a bit more research stuff might help?


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