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Member Info for kularatnam

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Member Since: Thu, 13th Feb 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 55
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 2

Last Posted: Wed 23:08

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Wed 23:08

It is no secret Fosun wanted to buy TCG all along but the restriction in airlines ownership prevented it from doing so.Recently the expectations were that they will acquire the Group after the Airlines are sold to various third parties. But intriguingly they have now approached TCG to buy the Tour Operator business before the airlines sales are concluded. If both the Airlines and Tour operator businesses are sold TCG will become more or less a shell company..From Fosun's point of view having a Tour Operator business without an easily accessible Airlines will not be a convenient arrangement. IMO Fosun would prefer Airlines, at least the major ones, to stay within the TCG group, also because in a fire sales situation valuation may not be with premium.After all the review of the Airlines came about in order to get over the financial difficulties. If Fosun can provide that with the purchase of Tour Operator why sell the Airlines? TCG will eventually be a Airlines and Online Tour Operator business and that too would be substantially, within the permitted limits, owned by Fosun.This is just a point of view and I may be crazy. GLA
30 May '19

which has a 12.5% interest in PB is going private. They bought the shares @ £3++ range and also jointly own a online estate agency. Dont know what will happen.
It is also strange PB does not report much on their German business.
10 May '19

What puzzled me most when TCG announced the sale to strategic investors, rather than spinning off the Airlines Division with an IPO. The present method gas restrictions in attracting buyers - anti trust/competition and ownership to non Europeans. In an IPO the valuations are based that of peers as well its own earnings etc. As a comparison I examined Easy Jet, IAG, Rynair and Wizz. On revenue they trade 0.7,0.4,1.7 and 1.2 times respectively. On operating profit the figure are 9,3,8 and 8 times. TCG airlines Revenue 3.5 bn & Op Profit 135 mn. Even if you take the lowest denominators of the peers TCG airlines should have a valuation of £1.5bn based on Revenue and about £400mn. The real value could be within this. Not that TCG wouldn't have looked at this option, may be they confident of getting a better value. GLA
13 Mar '19

Impairment and amortization depn apart, what matters is the cash generation. Did anyone notice the debt reduction as stated in the last update? Half year debt was $ 1,973 mn and end Dec 31st it was $1,771 , a $200mn reduction which is quite high and shows the cash generation and surplus.in the six months period. Would be nice if it can be extrapolated for the full year 2019.
11 Feb '19

Sorry. It can be opened by subscribers only.
11 Feb '19

A price tag of £1bn to £3bn.?? Pls read the following article

11 Feb '19


So the sale of the Airlines was in the works for almost an year. Officially now only they are disclosing. It means the sale can take place sooner. Actually a rights issue would have been better but should have been done when the share price was in its 140ps.They missed it. May be a reason for the Finance boss shown the door. Now sale of Airlines is the only option, like Harriet Green sold many non core assets during her time.
8 Feb '19

We should not compare Thomas Cook airlines with those failed recently/are struggling. Its fundamentals are strong with captive business base.L/Y Revenue £3.5 & op profit £127mn. Compare this with Easy Jet/IAG valuations. Mkt value of Easy jet is £5.2bn or 90% of its Turnover and 12 times of its op profit. For IAG it is 60% of its revenue & 6 times of its op profit.These are stock market valuations. If it is outright sale valuations could be higher by as much as 40%. Now do some calculations. You are talking easily above £1.5bn valuation.
7 Feb '19

Any guess about the valuation??? How much in £ billions £2 or £3
6 Feb '19

Romany- Roe , It all depends as to how you look at it. From todays price of 30p to 34p is 13% up.-Upgraded.
6 Feb '19

I was not surprised by this drop because this is how the market operate and the heavy weights make money. The Q1 results should be good. That is why they use the fearful situation to buy at lows. For those who fear the fundamentals in this company, there are two issues Ė results for the Q1 & the debt levels.
1) Take comfort from the fact that most of the airlines have flown 10% or more passengers during the quarter ended 31/12/2018 and had been profitable. That trend should be seen in TCG. While there are lot of positives in the CEO reviews, a significant one would be the partnership with Expedia. The transformation has taken effect from August/September 2018 and the TCG websites are actually run by/contain contents of Expedia. The extent of the contribution towards the revenue is not known and even the CEO has not commented on it. Expedia is the White Horse and it can be a game changer for variety of reasons.
2) Historically, being cyclical nature of the business, TCG has a peculiar debt pattern. It peaks in the December quarter and reduces each of the following quarters and gets to the lowest in September. Rough estimates show that in the last few years the Net Debt has been in the range of£1,200 - £1300 at peak and a reduction of about £350 to £450 in each of the following quarters. The pattern is Q1 1250, Q2 £850, Q3 £450 and Q4 £50to £100. ( all millions)
Unfortunately, last financial year Q3 Debt was £468 but ended with £389 in Q4. The normal reduction did not take place. This was explained to be due to the loss incurred as a result of deep discounts that had to be offered as a result of extended summer heat wave. The pre-booked capacious were essentially sold at a loss. They said they learned a lesson and would be, careful in future when contracting.
Obviously the Net Debt as at December 2018 is going to be higher and I reckon it can be at d £1300 +/-£100.But then the company said the lenders are flexible and would accommodate the increased levels. The peak would have been in December and we have passed it and it will be I the decline now. So we donít need to worry and the CEO has said he is not going to the shareholders.
8 Nov '18

How about a Brexit deal "bonanza"
2 Nov '18

11.42 , 685,224 shares done @ 101.40p
2 Nov '18

When the entire market , including Insurance stocks, are in the positive territory it is strange this stock lacks behind despite good Q3 and clearances of certain amount of uncertainty. Hope this gets back to 100p s by end of the day.
28 Oct '18

This is a very old event relating to a holiday FIVE years ago in 2013.No bearing to current trading.Newspapers are famous for sensationalizing issues even if it is not a serious one either due to lack of worthy news or bias towards an organisation. Thomas cook flies 20 mn tourists a year. The said ordeal should be viewed in that context.
26 Oct '18

By extending the compliance date to Dec19, PRA has given a lot of options to increase the capital requirements. In its 6 month report Just gave three avenues to reach this increased capital- reinsurance, Tier2/Debt capital and Tier1 - or a combination of the three.Now, as regards Tier1 capital they have twos years of retained earnings 2018& 2019 estd about £250 mn plus of course no div. This will definitely put off the option of Rights issue/
24 Oct '18

6%++ increase Hope it reaches 10% today and my target is 60p in two months.
18 Oct '18

Several smaller budget airlines are failing. Primera few days ago, Cyprus yesterday and profit warning from Flybe.Isnt it good for Thomas Cook

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