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Josh Mahony from IG sums up the forces driving markets and currencies Watch here

Leading commentator Josh Mahony from IG - are we seeing a US$ revaluation?

Member Info for flundra

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Member Since: Wed, 1st Apr 2015

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 478
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 12

Last Posted: 12 Aug '17

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

12 Aug '17

I'm sure ORM will have loads of suitors before long - ORM very nicely positioned atm
9 Aug '17

If as seems likely Malcy's made 2+2=5, he needs to put out a flashblog retracting that last one. Malcy?!
9 Aug '17

So what’s gone wrong since last Tuesday?! Is it wishful thinking to think this is just innocently replacing the nomad as a planned change to prepare for the new larger HNL? And doing it now whilst shares are suspended and so it won’t be disruptive?

Cochran’s quote on 1 Aug looked pretty positive to me:

“We are fully focused on progressing this transaction to its successful completion despite its complexity and large scale in comparison to HALO's current operations. This acquisition will be transformational for our business, giving us exposure to existing production and associated infrastructure, with access to significant upside. This is an important step towards repositioning HALO as a sizeable independent oil & gas player focused on lower-risk opportunities in well-establised provinces."
7 Aug '17

You're right to be cautious until financing's in place grippa, although the iis are already substantial shareholders, discussions with strategic partners are advanced, and imo we can be pretty confident we'll get good terms.

HUR is very different, offshore oil from fractured basement, and where there's some doubt at least over ability to extract.

BKY are gardening/farming! ie technically very simple near surface extraction.
1 Aug '17

Hi shareminator
I’ve not read everything, but agree it would be wrong of ELB to accept this bonus if only because he’s going to AVG as a non-exec director. These bonuses are perhaps the HAYT directors’ golden parachutes, awarded to compensate for loss of their jobs on t/o or merger, but if he’s going straight into AVG on a full package as part and parcel of the deal he himself has cooked up, he absolutely should not accept a parachute bonus, even if technically contractually entitled. The same applies to any other HAYT directors taken on by AVG.
I also agree ELB’s done a lot wrong this past year, including re funding and forecasting, and of course selling for a price which fails to recognise the long term prospects. Hardly bonus territory.
I think I’m kind of resigned to this merger though now we’ve been told there’s no realistic way of sorting the debt pile. I would have participated in any open offer though.
The employees should be ok as the HTG business carries on, albeit as a subsidiary of AVG. They’ll be worried about redundancy because of the change I guess, but keep their employee rights. They might actually be more secure with AVG’s balance sheet behind them.
We’ve had precious little indication recently of the extent of the problems. Would ELB argue he’s released what he’s been obliged to and preserved value by preventing panic, enabling an orderly sale? – I don’t know.
31 Jul '17

Well the court case will play out as it plays out, and we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It doesn’t surprise me that cash strapped govts will seek to claw back tax. Maybe the Canadians are as aggressive as HMRC are here in UK. They clearly think they have a prospect of winning. But it’s perhaps unlikely that a court will hand down a judgment fatal to Cameco (and by implication large swathes of Canadian industry), even if Cameco lose. And I think I’m right to say Cameco themselves are still confident of their position anyway.

I have to say I still like Cameco as an investment proposition. You’ve got to believe in the future of nuclear power, and that the U-price cycle is going to turn shortly of course. Be prepared for a rollercoaster too – eg quarterly production targets will over- and under-shoot, buyers will still be trying to wriggle out of current offtake agreements etc.

CN is absolutely right to highlight the court case and shutting in of production as risk factors, but I think suggestions of its demise are overstated and imo not to be wished for either. The SP has also gone from less than $8 last Autumn to over $10 today.

The consensus also seems to be it’s a buy. This from 7 June:

Currently 9 brokers are covering Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ), 2 rate it “Buy”, 4 “Outperform”, 0 “Underperform”, 0 “Sell”, while 3 “Hold”.
31 Jul '17

The tax case relates to a scheme set up by the Canadian tax authorities dating back to 1989, widely adopted by Canadian industry having been encouraged to do so by the tax authorities themselves. Judgment not due to end of this year I think? It'll have industry-wide ramifications. Cameco thought things were going well for them last I heard.

No one's been "tax fiddling" - lol!

Generally, Cameco's a buy imo, strong conservative management and balance sheet focussing on tier 1 assets. Unsurprisingly, it's been hit by the depressed U market, but come the widely expected upturn...

The sp's up nicely from the lows of £8 ish last Autumn. It's a good mature U-mining share to hold alongside the new mine at BKY.
28 Jul '17

A lot of people have been saying it - looks like they were right...

P23 –

“Following discussions with RBS, the HTG Directors believe that a substantial equity placing would be required to secure long term financing from its lenders. There can be no certainty that such a fund raising can be completed and in the event that such a fund raising were successfully completed, the HTG Directors believe that this would likely be at a substantial discount to both the Closing Price on27July 2017 of 48.5pence and the implied value of HTG Shares under the Scheme of approximately 50.1 pence, resulting in significant dilution to HTG Shareholders”
28 Jul '17

Things should hot up a bit now, with management talking of a pivotal 6 month period. Hopefully that comes from real confidence we’re going to see real improvement. It’s the sort of talk that can come back and bite you on the bum if we’re still in the doldrums come Christmas, so hopefully won’t have been said lightly.

Richard Lucas re-locating to Plymouth is also important. Shows both confidence and commitment. Compare that to Russell Clark who never wanted to leave his Aussie beach and even ****ged off Dartmoor!

RCF seem happy for now, and I can't see them pulling the plug particularly if the APT price continues to improve.
26 Jul '17

There'll be some HAYT/AVG arbitrage going on as well - trader's dream!

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