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Ariana forecast 47% rise in Kiziltepe gold production

Member Info for bonker99

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Member Since: Thu, 17th Mar 2011

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 40,213
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 170

Last Posted: Sat 17:13

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Sat 17:13

NRG Capital were engaged six or so months ago to advise on how best to arrange things re our MOD stake going forward. Given our presence at the UK Investor show in London today they may well have booked some face time with us/others this w/e.

NRG are heavy on corporate actions, M&A etc so yes, their influence will be felt at some point I'm sure.

Lost me from RTZ onwards but MMs merely "make a market", usually for those big booted players to accumulate/offload on the quiet until the engines are switched into full reverse.

Some may choose to see our rising weekly MA200 touch this week as such a switch.
Sat 12:53

You're right about it being too big to sell the whole thing as it'll take forever to prove it all up so, pretty much by definition, you're talking about chunks being bitten off, as much as we can chew at one time, then deals being made on that basis once the risk/benefit profile of each has been proven. That would also fit our proven MO of taking the quick/hot profit out of our plays before pouring that cash into the next one.

Again, yes, we're first movers here so we take on the early risk and reap the biggest rewards should our ships come in. The current T3 pit is looking very good from a risk perspective after the PFS and infill grades and there could be way much more to come from there as we progress around the giant dome. The study currently being performed on the additional underground mine option at T3 may also help in respect of it being a viable chunk to do a deal on.

Everyone would like to see better grades here but in the current copper climate, 1% is good enough to double your AISC at $3 copper as shown by the recent PFS numbers and you may well be tripling your AISC by the time this starts producing in two years time at precisely the time when the copper supply/demand ratio is predicted to plummet rapidly. That's a nice little earner for a decade or so by anyone's measure and size really does matter in terms of compensation for lower grades.

A myriad of deals in the offing? Well, look, we've got MOD/Australian Super & MTR/Sprott Global buddying up already and, if memory serves, the Chinese LIM fund who've gladly soaked up the rest of the recent MOD funding issue with a commitment to hold for two years and provide additional funding as and when required during the run up to production.

It's not difficult for me to envisage more players showing their hands here as time goes by due to the size of the potential and as the risk of the overall project starts to descend and the clear(er) benefits start to rise so I would not be at all surprised to see more money coming in from big booted parties this year, possibly directly into MTR.

There's been little talk here of Cupric Canyon who are privately owned, sat right at the end of our strip of the Kalahari Copper Belt and who are rocking terrific grades at up to 2% on multiple sizeable deposits on 1/3 of our acreage. I don't know the full history there of course but as far as I understand it, they are a year ahead of us and planning to produce from 2019. We should all be keeping an eye on that with respect to it being the forward-read model here for the next 12 months with respect to both fully worked-up copper deposits and an acquisition by a major.

We do not need to sell anything to multibag here, we merely need to see signals that more of the potential is being realised.

Exactly two years from the 6.4p high to the here and now and exactly two years to production.

Coincidence? I highly doubt it.

Fri 21:15

Yup, agree with all of that.

Well we all wish we had more money to buy more with lol - for my own part I've secured a really very sizeable stake here at a tuppence average now with more to come on an ongoing basis until something happens to stop me buying or I think the SP may have got ahead of herself but that, imo, isn't even a conversation below 4s, not even for a quick trade.

162 values this at 4.5p on what's known and on that basis it does indeed look a no-brainer at this price but of course, 162's valuation is based on what's currently known without �10m+ worth of future drill results to come, or the outstanding, and presumably imminent, 34 other assay results and all the other AEM stuff in addition to what should be a very solid resource upgrade soon.

T3 Dome is a monster - T20 Dome is a monster's monster but they're both still pin pricks on the scale of the total acreage in one of the World's biggest and most under-explored copper-rich geological formations.

There is, and will continue to be dozens, if not scores, of major targets to test with the drill bit for as long as they keep finding copper/have the money to do it so this could run for a very long time indeed unless they (or someone else) put a stop to it.

T3's grades, in a modern context, are pretty good and those recent infill grades looked even better so given the size of the prospect and what looks to be a guaranteed increased resource grade at 1%+ just for the current T3 pit then yes, absolutely, it's bloody difficult to see downside from here, or indeed anyway that the SP doesn't see at least 4s at some point.

I've just poured water on the suggestion of a 2018 buyout here because I suspect that if they unearth the kind of stuff that makes this become irresistably attractive to a major player then they're going to want to hold onto it and prove it up some more until someone forces the issue with a proper telephone number sized bid.

My *assumption* is that would push us into 2019 before a likely bid would be made *but* I am of course talking in total ignorance of what may turn up over the Spring/Summer here and it cannot be ruled out. Mutiple domes of this size with anything like decent grades (and 1% is definitely good enough) would be a complete and utter game-changer and would most definitely have the global players swivelling their heads towards Botswana if they haven't already.

All in all, do I think it'll be sold ahead of DFS in 2018? No, probably not but the market will immediately start pricing it in on any more decent finds here for sure.

The sun's appeared for us this week I note and I'm taking that as an omen that we're in for a cracking Summer here ;)
Fri 18:19


It's been a long drag for many, people can't help but vent their spleen at times - I'm no different.

The worst is over though imo and if you used those delays to bag yourself an even bigger slice of this then that's the game imo and yes, I agree, I simply cannot see anything but upside from the here and now.
Fri 18:06

You won't, imo, see a buyout this year but that won't stop the market pricing in at least 1/4 of that projection (again) way sooner rather than later on the right news.

That 6s print is there for a reason.
Fri 16:29

Now you're talking :D
Fri 16:21

I'm with Homer: "The first step to failure is trying" :)
Fri 16:05

Copy all that bar the cancer mate :)

We'll get there.
Fri 15:01

That made me proper laugh mate :)
Fri 12:54

Whatever else people may think about us they can't beat us with the non-transparency stick :)

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