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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Member Info for aligator


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Member Since: Wed, 22nd Mar 2017

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 139
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 11

Last Posted: Fri 21:51


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Fri 21:51

Peakview, I am not a glass half-empty person, but rather someone who seeks logical explanations for events, i.e. how the share price of a company can rise on the back of zero information and known pressure points in various critical areas of operation, e.g. Bacton, funding for the core project, etc. For the record, there are more parties than just the Crown Estates in play on the Bacton issue, otherwise the documentation would have been signed months ago.
Perhaps you could educate me as to how an intelligent investor, given the lack of information and known problems, would, to use your words, "not wait for updates and announcements" and, as we saw yesterday, gamble 80,000 (in buying 500,000 shares) merely on "confidence in substantial figures".
I am not seeking to undermine your or any similar views - you are entitled to such. However, I seek a rational explanation to events which just cannot make sense from an investment market perspective, unless confidential information has leaked..
Fri 18:40

stubluekpl, share price certainly appears to be reflecting confidence but, per my previous postings, on the basis of what? We have had the square root of nothing by way of updates or announcements for some time now and it is clear that the Bacton issue is far greater than was advised by the BoD during the conference call or EGM.
Various posters have suggested that the FID, due to be announced shortly, is behind the uptick but this is just pure speculation since the reality is that the FID could be further delayed or even worse if the company is unable to secure funding for the core project.
No shareholder is more pleased than me to see the SP breaking 16p again but, given the above, on the basis of what?
Wed 20:06

butd, QED. To be specific, on what basis would any investor, assuming they are bereft of any confidential information and fully aware of the challenges experienced by the company during the last 6 months, suddenly decide that to buy shares on the basis of a possible (positive) rerate in the near future? That just would not make sense to any intelligent investor unless, of course, said investor was in possession of information not yet available to the market. Is that the background here? After all AIM is renowned for such antics and there have been previous scenarios with the company of increased buying shortly ahead of positive RNSs. At the bottom line, it is remotely possible that this is due to a lack of supply but the probable reality is yet another AIM company leaking like a sieve.
Wed 14:43

Peakview, You make a valid point. I have been critical of the BoD for some months (and continue to feel that previous pledges on the subject of communication have just not been met), but am nonetheless happy to see this uptick. That said, I am once again mystified as to how and why, in the absence of any public statements/information whatsoever and a share price trading around 14p, someone is willing to pay 16p - a premium of over 14% - for 500,000 shares. It just does not make investment logic. Or is this just another example of an AIM listed company keeing confidential information in a sieve?
12 Jun '19

As time marches on and we continue to await updates of any sort, my analytical mind is now turning to the issue of plan B's/fall back positions and just where does the company go next if it fails to secure long term funding? Forget about the drilling of Harvey and finalising documentation on the Thames Reception Facility (Bacon) - the critical issue here is securing the funding to develop the core project. Without it the company faces a bleak future.
I guess the very bottom line would be a fire sale of the licences but we all know that, in such a scenario, this will generate only a fraction of the assessed NPV of the gas. Certainly, if I was one of the mid cap companies, I would be casting my ruler over IOG's assets and holding back to see if I could pick them up on the cheap.
In my view, "Mid-year" (as quoted during the conference call and EGM) is the end of this month/first couple of weeks of July. Or does the BoD see this as extending to August and September? at what point does the BoD consider that it needs to provide information to its shareholders?
Apologies for the negativity but, having been one of the BoD's biggest supporters, events over the past 9-12 months have generated far more scepticism than expectation. This has not been assisted by recent refusals by the BoD to provide updates on various milestone issues, specifically to provide detail as to why progress has been so slow.
These are my own thoughts and I would of course, as a LTSH, be delighted to see the company succeed. Thus, any other views would be welcome.
10 Jun '19

Turtle82, This would appear to be a standard option exercise by a "former officer". However, we all know that such exercises trigger immediate income tax liability on the profit achieved, in this case ca 32,000. So, assuming said "former officer's" top tax rate is 40%, then he/she will be liable to pay ca 13,000. Not a huge amount to risk but does he/she know something we don't?
1 Jun '19

I find it disappointing and irritating that people use this board to pursue feuds or, indeed, seek to personally insult one another. To my mind the board should reflect the thoughts and views of shareholders and other investors on the prospects or otherwise of IOG, irrespective of whether they fit with the thinking of others. I am happy to admit that I am always willing to learn and be educated on issues I have limited knowledge of.
30 May '19

600T, Just to let you know that I am reading all your posts. Your email to AH is a good call since RS has not even the etiquette to acknowledge your original message - if only to say he is busy but will respond asap.

To be blunt, I am beginning to read the BoD in a similar vein to our Parliament and more specifically the MPs that attend it. That is, it is not listening to what the shareholders are saying (i.e. more communication) and how shareholders are feeling at this time.

I just hope that AH has the courtesy to get in touch with you.
30 May '19

600T, Any response?
28 May '19

FT, Thanks. Indeed, positive news. SP up to 14p as of writing. What is road the corner?
28 May '19

Hi Turtle82, Where did you see this RNS? There is nothing on this site (at the moment) nor within IOG's own website.
25 May '19

rxdav, You make a good point about the discussion on this subject during the conference call. I too thought that the BoD got caught short on the question and I well remember AH's unequivocal answer that "Bacton would happen". For what it is worth, I raised the same issue during the subsequent meeting and sought further confirmation that all business points had been agreed on the deal and that it was just legal documentation that was holding up progress. Again, AH stated that the issue of legal title was being dealt with but subsequent silence on the whole issue would strongly suggest that the problem is bigger, deeper, etc than previously believed and/or other issues have surfaced which are causing further concern.
It is all well and good saying that we need to give the BoD time and wait a few weeks but, frankly, it has been more than a few weeks since the meeting and we seem to be no further forward on Bacton. Quite simply, given the mandate provided to the BoD by the shareholders by virtue of approving the equity raise, etc, we need to be kept much more in the loop on what is happening. As you and I agree, the BoD appears to have the competence but needs to reagin our trust.
24 May '19

600T,
Totally agree - 25p would be way below where I believe it could go based on everything falling into place over the next few months or so.
Peakview,
I think NH's cv speaks for itself in term of operational oversight of gas field development and production and, specifically, his work in the North Sea. As for what does he bring to the party, I would suggest unbiased views of critical issues and decisions, backed by his long term experience in similar situations. In theory, the collective knowledge and experience of this BoD must rank highly compared to competitors but, as rxdav points out, it now needs to win back the confidence of shareholders. Sadly, in my view, having secured shareholder backing for the equity raise, it is not going about this in the right way.
24 May '19

Morning 600T, I am in agreement with your thinking. The timing is interesting indeed.
Further, this morning's announcement re appointment of Neil Hawkings to my mind adds to the story. Neil is clearly very experienced in gas production and will add, not subtract, to the BoD. Further, the options awarded to Neil, while appearing generous, are subject to, inter alia, sanction of phase 1 of the SNS project and the share price being no less than 25p. I think there are many pi's who would be happy to see 25p again - and more!
23 May '19

Asking price has dropped from 14.50 to 14, spread reduced from 1.50 to 1.00 but share price shoring at 13.94. Sell after sell on a board where it is simply impossible to know if it is otherwise a buy. No announcements from the company. Anyone care to venture a view/views/
22 May '19

600T, Totally agree and hope you are correct regarding more than one interested farm-in partner. As for mucking up plans - you and me both! I was hoping that, by now, the sp would be rising steadily towards multiples of the early ranges. I am getting not younger too and, while I still believe in the whole story that is IOG, I am disappointed with what has occurred over the last 6 months or so. That said, we are still alive and kicking!!!!!!
22 May '19

butd, "Stop bleating"! Coming from you that is just absolutely hilarious. It also installs a serious question mark on your memory of your previous postings. I would appreciate it if you could refrain from responding to my postings - I am only interested in engaging in a mature, informed, exchange of views with fellow investors.

600T, Appreciate the time taken to respond. You make valid points but, as we both know, this is mostly about securing long term funding to develop long term assets. Yes, we are told that we have funding for the Harvey well and operating costs for about 6 months or so. However, remember what happened to the last funding pot which was supposed to be dedicated for the Harvey well.
Failure to secure long term funding could (and I stress could) result in the company being forced to sell assets in order to remain solvent. Again, we both know that proceeds achieved from such sale (if at all) would be a fraction of the assets' worth, destroying shareholder value and putting the future of the company in question. It is this downside that is my focus at this time.
Of course, I am hoping that the next announcements from the company contain the news we seek but I am putting a logical question mark on whether this will be the case given past performance by the BoD.
21 May '19

Peakview, I am a long term investor in the company and have been one of its/the BoD's staunchest supporters during this time. Rightly or wrongly, I have held on to my shares in the hope that, like all investors, I would be duly rewarded in due course. However, events over the last ca 9 months have severely tested my faith and, indeed, my patience with the BoD and I am now becoming increasingly suspicious in the lack of progress, specifically during the last 6 months, and in the lack of communication from the BoD, something it promised to address during the last meeting.
There is a plethora of timeline items which we were reassured about both during the telephone call and subsequent meeting but about which we have since received the square root of nothing by way of information/announcements. I am talking about farm-out, capital markets funding, Bacton, Harvey rig lease, Harvey spud date, FID, etc.
This accounts for my negativity. Simply put, I am of the view that any negative announcement by the company will have a catastrophic impact on the sp. Yes, like others, I would like to see/hear a positive RNS but the longer this silence goes on the more my pessimism grows that positive news is on the horizon..
21 May '19

Anyone willing to volunteer an explanation as to the sp's northerly track on the back of profit taking from the offer, lack of info on farm-out funding progress, lack of confirmation of Bacton purchase, possibility of further FID deferral, significant selling over the past few weeks, etc etc? What am I missing here?
21 May '19

Peakview, Not if it announces further delays in the farm-out/funding process and announcement of FID. Apologies for the negativity but I can only base my views on what is known and, in this case, no news is bad news.
Further, what is happening about Bacton? Why has this not been completed?


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