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Member Info for Velo

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Member Since: Mon, 10th Feb 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,052
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 83

Last Posted: Today 13:53

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Today 13:53

(Right down to business: Wait - going to use a second post to keep the figures from wandering across multiple post pages. The test results follow directly on from this post)......

Second run: (threw away first run as unfair delay to other brokers due to my clumsiness

iWeb for -
VOD prices @ 12:55pm

iWeb executed at 126.872p
No of shares = 3918
Amount £5000.69

HL for -
VOD prices @ 12:55pm

HL executed at 126.872p
No of shares = 3912
Amount £5000.00

AJBell for -
VOD prices @ 12:55pm

AJBell executed at 126.872p
No of shares = 2345
Amount £2999.98 (only had £3.3k spare cash in the Bell acc)

So all three executed at the same stable price of 126.872p but both HL and AJBell get you less shares than iWeb if you can make allowances for Bell using smaller funds.

A clear win for iWeb on the second (and unfair first run - not shown).
(ALL brokers amazingly executed at the very same exact price, but iWeb wins due to more shares bought from their lower broker cost).

3rd run and I left AJBell left out of it as it has a smaller cash balance to spare, as well as my running out of screen time :)

iWeb for -
VOD prices @ 1:00pm

iWeb executed at 126.912p
No of shares = 3917
Amount £5001.00

HL for -
VOD prices @ 1:00pm

HL also executed at 126.912p
No of shares = 3911
Amount £5000.30

Once again both iWeb and HL executed at the exact same price but due to dearer cost by HL it's another win for iWeb with 6 shares MORE!

So egg on my face here. iWeb wins due to best /lower costs.

Busy for a bit now but leaving the screen dumps saved in my DTP if any queries on breakdown costs , but only saved the last test - iWeb and HL.
Today 13:50

Well I am personally surprised at the results - a win for discount broker iWeb.

Made a complete mess of the first run, so re-ran it from scratch this time using a screen dump to allieviate writing down and was much speedier.

But even on the second and following third run I ran out of time yet again, just using screen dumps alone!

Again and it would be an unfair comparison to have them several seconds apart, so I removed IG as lost time realising all the IG funds was in the S/Bettng acc and nil in the old IG ISA. Then realised I had virtually no spare cash in AJBell as have been moving additional surplus funds over into IG.

But cobbled this together, to which I'm pretty happy about as decent enough. In all runs iWeb still came out top (still coming to terrmns with that).

The reason I had problems last time with iWeb was because I sold in the no-no time - before 8:30am. And I'm now prepared to accept all brokers will offer wonky prices to each other in that first half hour of opening.

So my initial comments about iWeb are unwarranted and now proven to be wholly unfounded. I look upon iWeb with renewed appraisal.

Right down to business: Wait - going to use a second post to keep the figures from wandering across multiple post pages. The test results follow directly on from this post.
Today 00:10

Hee :) I reckon I do my best work around the bewitching hour.

He's been fired again.

He's gone to the place where all naughty posters go - into banned cyberspace - locked in a one dimensional triangle like the villains in that old Superman movie, gently rotating through space into eternity.

You know - Last Call aka Mark Williams. No trace of Mark Williams left.
Thought he'd gone sharply quiet, so just checked. Yep - His posts wiped. His cover blown.

I thought he was extremely well behaved this time round and only starting bursting out of his cover-body suit, a bit like the bug-man in Men In Black, fighting a losing battle to remain in a human disguise, towards his later posts.

But he's gone. All trace of his posts deleted. Mark Williams is no more. RIP.

I'm curious, did he get reported or did LSE find him, themselves - or did they read my post then checked up?

Anyway, back in this thread heading I posted:

*** Hi Last Call / Mark Williams. It's you isn't, LC?
Thought I recognised a sentence in there that rang a bell, and true enough scrolled back to last year and of course all your posts are deleted, but as chance would have it, I had back then, re-quoted your questions to me, in my reply post in some late night banter. And they match. So welcome back....... If you do get sussed out and shut down, I'll only then post how I found out, to keep you from making repeatable mistakes ***

So true to my word, if your reading LC, here is a post of mine late at night from 23rd October 2018 when there was a bit of banter going on, you got curious and wanted to know a bit more of my background so revealed a bit of your history as a come-on taster - and it was that, that you re-posted into your intro post just last week that gave the game away. Here is the pertinent bit at the start of my reply to you from last year -

"Were you a trader/investor in 1997 velo? i wasnt until 2000"

And that was the bit that you revealed about yourself again last week, a trader first then later an investor, only this time you said 1996 but I only quoted a snippet but back then, enough to identify which question I was answering. And that was how you got nailed. Remember to cook up a new persona for each ID, not tell the same background stories for differing ID's. Tsk! I could never send you behind the lines in Russia with such poor preparation in a cover story.

Such fun. Time to turn in.
Mon 20:35

I'd personally like to see it close on 128 for confirmation tomorrow, but anywhere from 125p to 128p would still reflect the SP is turning bullish IMO. Your opinion may differ, as they say.
Mon 20:22

A thumbs up from me Daniel, for personal honesty.
Mon 20:17

What you thinking about today's performance then, eh? (Coupled with Friday's).

Only now getting a look in depth at the price action today - and IMO that's the best 2 day pattern since early March where it went from approx 131-ish up to mid 140's without stopping for breath.

Friday closed as a long legged Doji signalling indecision and possibly a change in direction. Today, Monday that was a damn good bullish confirmation, with the oversolds reducing dramatically and heading rapidly for the overhead exit door to sunlight

However, it is STILL in oversold condition, so I'm premature. I ALWAYS get premature on oversold exits.

Might be just a stray bullish day and disappoint, but initially I would expect at least some effort put in to the midway Keltner channel point of circa mid 130's and then see when there. If it's not to be , then just me firing off too early.

For clarity I am still holding to the view that the long term down trend is in force and still rules the roost, until proven otherwise, any rally needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

So, first target over coming days is IMO achieving circa mid 130's. Do that and it's game-on.Then the fun really starts.
To be or not to be? That is the question, whether it is .......
Mon 19:36

iWeb v AJ Bell v HL (and maybe IG who do ISA's too).

Apologies to Jack and Simon19.(& anyone else) Just couldn't fit it in today. Had a CH/Hot Water boiler leak that got worse on Sunday, so tied up with that today (Repaired now).

However, intend getting the broker test comparison done and posted tomorrow.
Mon 19:23

Faultsman @ "....tell that chap that has zero faith in BT to invest his money in BT shares rather than buy a house, whats the worse that could happen. "

I think you're guilty of no more than speed reading there. The person concerned has more "faith" in BT than you or almost anyone else on this forum. It was not some newbie with "zero faith in BT" as you put it - but the exact opposite. The most bullish investor on BT I know of.

I doubt very much there are any investors on here with a bigger £holding than he holds, who for the second time wondered aloud about his new house and investing and had already made it clear he wasn't going to risk the house money, so I attempted to confirm my concurrence with his decision. Repeat: He is no newbie.

I'm concerned by your admission of:

" ....anyway I am utterly knackered as been up all night gambling on line and it takes it out of you..".

Perhaps you were engaged in some kind of humorous satire that has gone completely over my head, as I take that statement at face value. If it is a joke, I don't get it. But with such a serious issue as implied in your sentence, I will desist from any form of baiting.

Incidentally your line of sarcasm on: "... and then writing it on here so I look big and clever, then when it all goes tits up just go all quiet for a few months..."

I take it you're referring to my absence from approx last November until this month, yes?

If so, it was supposed to be permanent. I have to admit I have discovered that the more I engage posting on forums - the worse I become in devoting quality time to my regular personal investing. And that was my sole reasoning for skipping bail. And it did do the trick. Yet here I am again, back on this forum, failing to stick to my resolutions. Lack of personal discipline on my part.

FYI, I will be attempting v soon to reduce my contributions to something like either no more than one (maybe two) per week or per month, or better still, infrequently. I hope I succeed as I think all will agree, forum posting can get out of hand and become addictive :)

It's a confession - I invest better when I cut out excessive forum posting, that's all.
Sun 22:34

The following comment is not directed at you F/man - but the originator/s of the utterly meaningless:

" Do not invest any money you cant afford to lose".

What claptrap! I have never, ever in my life, ever met anyone who has lose thousands of ££££'s and say:

"On the bright side, I can afford to lose all that money". (because I had too much to start with, or more money than I needed????)

Only the seriously wealthy could get away with saying that. "I can afford to lose money". Sheesh. Do they know it's THOUSANDS we lose, and not the odd fifty quid?

Who can AFFORD to lose thousands without so much ass a bye or leave. Who?

Who, on this forum will be the first to say, the corallory of 'don't invest more than you can afford to lose' which is

- Yeah, I can afford to lose money?

If so, a) You're overpaid or

b) Nicking stuff shoplifting.

Only millionaires and beyond could ever get away coming out with that load of codswallop.

New motto required. I hate that one and nobody takes a blind bit of notice of it anyway, do they?

- It's used soley by preachers - to preach I am holier than thou, mantras on to the lower orders.

Rant over. Carry on :)
Sun 22:04

Was going to post the market's expectation new full financial forecasts for 2020 & 2021 in BT, sometime tonight (as mentioned in a post the other day) but already running behind schedule. So might be tomorrow now or even later in the week.
Sun 21:54


.....Also, after the latest trading results, VOD is looking way poorer a decision for future dependability than BT - on paper.

BT, in other words, is rated higher for better value than VOD - on paper.
And I think anyone will discover not a single analyst or article is recommending VOD as a buy, only a hold at most - but you will still find many positive buy recommendations for BT. (Not that analysts get things any more right than us, PI's - as proven by researchers into analysts personal success rate - no better than anyone else - fact).

Like BT, VOD is locked in a deadly down trend embrace; but strangely, I find both currently in oversold condition, and so am expecting soon (week? weeks? ???) that both will appear to cross to a small upside rally.

However, I expect VOD may then recommence showing a poorly performing SP. I have more confidence in BT than in VOD.

But both are in hell's kitchen at the moment, as is common knowledge, and it's all very dangerous looking - for both.

- Until something gives.
Sun 21:47

Hi Aus,
Thanks. Yes, think I said it was in a committed, long term, down trend anyway, and that there was an additional risk of VOD going bankrupt within the next 18 months, but needed to further investigate the complexities behind the metric before saying so publicly - as that metric had an 80% to 90% successful accuracy hit rate in forecasting a bankruptcy within 18 months. (now upped to 2 years in the Z2 version) Is that how you recall it all?

Well, subsequent to that, I did dig deeper and decided to disown the metric on this occasion, because it broke it's own rules and I judged VOD fitted the "deviants" rule that VOD, namely, fell into the 20/10% category of companies that do not go on to trigger a bankruptcy. I'll explain why in a moment.

The metric is 100% based on fundamentals alone in nature, and called the: The Altman Z Score (I have access to the updated Z2 version) otherwise known as the Bankruptcy Risk Meter, and was developed by a Professor Emeritus of Finance decades ago, and virtually an impenetrable maze of financial complications to suss out how it arrives at its calculations. But this is what it claims, and others agencies confirm about it (I have found from experience it picked up all the well publicised bankruptcies like Carillion well before they collapsed, with ease):

"Tests have shown that the Distress Zone is 80-90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy."

By the way, it still has VOD as of tonight, listed and rated as -

" Vodafone has an Altman Z2 of -1.56 indicating a serious risk of financial distress within the next 2 years. "

It's just not letting VOD out of its pitbull-jaws. (By the way it has BT listed as needing watching but nowhere near as dangerously rated as VOD. Anyway, there were so many other decent rated metrics I was seeing for VOD, I felt something was adrift.

Quite simply, unable to figure out the formulae involved, I checked back through the last 6 years of accounts - and in every single year it had the same rating for VOD. So, the infamous 2 year death sentence had already, come and gone THRICE over since 2013, and yet, here is VOD, still standing. Furthermore and separately, I have VOD (like BT) currently rated as undervalued and qualifies for a "value hunter's" list for it to be at least considered.

- So I disowned the metric, and judged VOD to be clearly, and without argument, one of those that falls into the 20/10% category that escapes and never triggers a bankruptcy as the metric was so sure of. However, I remain long term bearish on VOD, until something changes.

Also, after the latest trading results, VOD is looking way poorer a decision for future dependability than BT - on paper.
BT in other words, is rated higher for better value than VOD - on paper. And I think anyone will discover not a single analyst or article is recommending VOD as a buy, only a hold at most - but you will still find some positive buy recommendations for BT. (Not that analysts get t
Sun 21:12

Fleccy - Good rebuttal to my post last night, despite my not being fully on board with the last sentence of your main paragraph that commences:

"I suspect that Vodafone could have maintained the dividend......."

and closes with

"......pressure was applied to the board members externally".

- Good rebuttal, nonetheless.


"....I'm dying to sink more cash into both companies, my head is telling me that I might need all my spare cash to find the right house, so I'm reluctant to tie up more cash.... "

Then don't use any more additional cash at all (instead see suggestion below). To assist in this, you have now summarily been served with a Cease and Desist order; activated upon reading this. It is now enacted. The house comes first - No contest!

To help control your urges, maybe decide which is the share you currently favour more/think might pull ahead of the other, and sell some (some as in a small tranche only) of the 'slower' share (Ha! Now there's a question:) and then use that cash generated, to buy the one you favour more - and reverse the whole process in the opposite direction should things later change position in the future, and so on.
That might nail your urges until actually sitting in the new house.

If that sounds too much like a distant cousin of trading, rather than investing, then your final thought sounds the much safer, better decision, and ultimately - the only option.
Sat 09:39

Well if the dog's tipping it - I'm in!!!

I've seen what octopuses can do predicting major football tournaments. So if anyone's got a pet octopus then I'm sorry halfpenny - your dog would be toast.
Sat 09:20

Hee hee, well more reading to come sometime this weekend. Just got hold of the latest full BT forecasts for 2020 and 2021 and might share the results that on paper look very enticing if it were not for this blaady awful current price crash carry on.

I personally now rate BT a far superior choice than VOD (Got 2020 & 2021 forecasts for VOD to hand too, which also appear enticing).
Sat 08:54

Simon, with Jack's input, your initial post has now resulted in setting me off on my own quest.

I will run some dummy test quotes on Monday, or later in the week if overly busy, and report back here under this thread, on the results of a three way test between:

iWeb . v . AJ Bell . v . HL

and try to have all three open at the same time live on tabs, for ultra fair comparison.

I'll use VOD as the first test then a smaller share (Hils) that I 'felt' I had received a poor price offer from iWeb.

- It'll only be possible to get buy price comparisons in this experiment, but that will do.
Sat 01:02

Meant to mention I was with Selftrade many years ago. Loved it then, but it got sold and their platform changed.

It looked like somebodyhad hired a teenager to do it in their bedrrom. Dreadful after that. I was out fast. So nil points for Selftrade they were £12 odd per trade back in the day, too.


Jack @ "...They use 32 different places to get best execution prices.....For regular traders, what you save in cheaper commission can cost you in worse execution prices.."

That must be it, one of the reasons I prefer HL

A few weeks ago I sold a share that had more than doubled in price. I'd held it so long that I had forgotten that if you caught it on the wrong day the spread could bite you on the bum, or that's what I thought until your reminder of HL's 30 odd places to check for best price.

I was using iWeb to sell it. Hardly done any selling on iWeb - all buying mostly. The price offerred was obnoxiously low. Checked HL and thir prices seemed much, much keener.

Confused I checked AJBell. They too were better than iWebb but dearer than HL

Thinking it was just a blip I returned to iWeb and the price on offer had gotten better somewhat but still not as good as the other two. Didn't dare waste any more time so had no option but to accept the sell price of iWeb.
A little bit dissapointed by the net funds received I went back for a third round of checks and yep HL was the best and it wasn't a blip. I felt peeved all that day, muttering: They saw me coiming, the blaady rob dogs etc.,etc., etc.,

But you've just reminded me how much of HL I take for granted. The only reason I don't have ISA's in HL is fear of a broker bankruptcy, so I spread my funds around for safety should brokers go under. Think I'll do a bit more checking and comparisons with say dummy buys on all 3 brokers and compare. I might yet open an ISA within HL if it pans out.

Want to check if that heavy SIPP monthly fee would count towards letting me off a bit for an ISA account with them.

That's another thing, HL available to speak to, by phone all Sat mornings. No chance with the other two Isa brokers.
Sat 00:30

My own post has triggerred a potential considerastion for the REAL reason for the price crash in BT when I posted this bit:

".. Jansen. He was forced to announce no cut - but could say only as far as this year and next guaranteed. (So it's open season on the divi after next year)."

If Fleccy's view holds water that these price crashes are soley to do with divis, could it then be said that the market is way ahead of us private investors in reading between the lines of CEO's doublespeak?

Jansen said specifically guaranteed that the divi was being maintained for the this year and next. Full stop. Then he addressed other matters.

Reading between the lines means that after next year is over the divi is up for consideration of being cut.
So did those big funds decide to get out now as with a reduced divi in the future they think they can be better served with what they regard as something more reliable for the future?

Is that it? Is that the reason? That the market believes the divi WILL be cut for certain after next year????
Sat 00:05

Fleccy, don't overlook other possibilities.

In November the new VOD CEO, Assured the market (assured!) that the divi was safe and would be maintained (was progressive but now "maintained"). Barely 6 months later he shows what a dithering indecisive clot he is with no forward vision capabilities when he annouces sorree peeps - I am going to cut the div after all (and then I think labelled future divis as back to progressive).

Did the market in VOD really tank because the divi was cut? Or maybe they've just been made aware they now can't count on reliable certainty any more? Funds can't plan to pay pension holders with any degree of reasonable certainty, faced with a 'oops I've changed my mind again' type of CEO.

As I recall, it zoomed up to XD day last November was it to 170p's? Then it too crashed back to earth and was in a terrible state by the time of this just released update. You might say baked-in. But the SP crashed from the time of going XD in November and instead of coming out of that XD period and returning to pre-XD price come January, it continued dropping like a stone ever since.

I'm not buying that the SP of VOD stayed up once confirmed the divi wasn't being cut. It fell and stayed fallen!

He announced it cut a few days ago yes, but the SP dissapointed more IMO due to the market realising the VOD CEO is a ditherer and not to be trusted to change his mind on a dime rather than do due diligence and plan ahead. He's a former highly qualified accountant - and yet he can't decide from a couple of months ago to the next, to stick with a decision. The market HATES uncertainty. I don't accept your explanation for VOD's current SP malaise is due to a divi cut. It would drop some but it had already dropped big time and now it's dropped so much it too is in oversdold territory.

There is IMO more to VODA price crashing than just a divi cut alone.
Fri 23:33

halfpenny - I would dearly like to borrow your dog. How much does he charge for mowing lawns? 2 tins of pedigree or 4 per lawn?

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