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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Member Info for Tiburn


Send a private message to Tiburn

Member Since: Sun, 22nd Oct 2017

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,417
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 140

Last Posted: Wed 13:26


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Wed 13:26

Woody

I could also argue its in SMP shareholder best strategic interest, other clients opinion, for them to consider a good deal with AAOG as they even admitted themselves poor drill performance, welder on site, parts flown from France etc etc - but its all just hypothetical debate, I'm not ramping ffs.

its just debate - we can differ in opinion, but to just press filter button every time someone says something you don't agree with isn't ideal, I think you even filtered Tiptop, and he has massive technical knowledge on this field, this is to all our understanding and benefit, even if you don't agree with his evaluation

lets just agree to disagree

Good day
Wed 12:49

If AAOG can get 2000bopd from just 12m then why drill lower now when cash is tight? Also reduce risk let’s just get money in quick by cap removal , go back in later with revenue earned funding it with a decent drill sourced for 104
Wed 12:40

Wildfire

Very good summary

They also got a payment in feb as per RNS 18th, June payment soon aswell

Add production from tlp102 at 60 bold and that’s 35k net per month.

We have enough imo to drill out a cap and make good. That could be done with a rubbish low cost Drill like smp 102 surely, if SMP want our business and reduce reputation poor performance impact they should do it for free after the problems we had. If your another company sourcing a drill would you be impressed? This performance for aaog will be known in the local industry.
Wed 10:38

Delays are understandable now we know the background, a lot of work being done in interim to switch from Mengo Frac to Djeno production, CPR being irrelevant

Poor communications are not acceptable but this has been noted and an acknowledgement of the mistake was made by DS, i accepted or not, it was more than most AIM directors would have done

Did DS look at all concerned in interview, bearing in mind the SP has been decimated in the meantime? His options a long way off after all and reputation hits have been considerable.

No he didn't look concerned or even mention the SP

In fact, he was upbeat and had an understated confidence without being overly optimistic as in previous interviews, the key message stated was "The Djeno production route transforms the value of the company

I can only go on what the company Chairman tells me. If I lost trust in the management I wouldn't stay invested.
Wed 10:08

Double

Nothing I can do, I like this share a lot

I'm down as much as the next guy, but the current SP is irrelevant to me.

I believe in the excellent fundamentals is all and do admit to having hope and being positive about my investment

Only if Tiptop started having doubts would I reconsider my position!
Wed 09:45

I find I'm so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only an AAOG PI can feel. A PI at a start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain.

I hope AAOG can drill Djeno successfully. I hope to see DS on success and shake his hand. I hope the share price is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.
Wed 08:31

Just sell man and move on - you will feel better
Wed 07:55

Tide turning, massively oversold

Come on Big Dave
Wed 07:44

• DS has let his placing of 44m shares authority lapse, as Skittish confirmed.
• He could have exercised these over a month ago, following an interview then on progress, CPR issue, justified reasons for delays etc - he has only done an interview now when they are probably days away on the production plan.
• So if an interview was done a month ago, coming clean and saying, to go for Djeno I need to exercise the 44m shares, he would sell the early revenue gained and “transformational company making” outcome – that message was possible to say back then with high confidence just based on AAOG own Djeno flow analysis, SNPC expert opinion and the initial Schlumberger CPI
• He didn’t do a placing when he could however, either because he missed the opportunity (This is AIM so doubtful) , doesn’t need the cash for the drill and/or was waiting on the Havoc report of 2 CPI analysis before committing.
• In objective terms, he knew over a month ago the likely re completion drill costs, knew his bank balance then and expected now and could see back then if a placing was required or not.
• A view could be that he didn’t exercise the 44m as he doesn’t need the money, he has also waited until the Havoc feasibility CPI conclusions complete and production plan being +90% there before starting up communications again.
• What he could have specifically said in the recent interview is to explain all this, allay placing fears, say “look I can exercise 44m now but im not going to as I don’t need the cash, re completion drill is low cost and already secured using SNPC repayment funds”
• SNPC repayments to date from Feb-Jun should be $3.2million - it’s drilling out a cap and re completion, not a full drill so may be viable with funds remaining.
• DS could still say this - but I expect he is waiting on the production plan being released with this data and let that JB managed, no doubt excellent document, do the talking - this production plan on kit source, timelines etc should remove all ambiguities.
• Once TLP-103C is in production, the booked revenue will be doing the front of house Company communications.
Tue 22:32

It’s fine to show a bit of leg plapps my man, but not yet, let’s add some value first , 5p doesn’t interest
Tue 21:36

Skittish, great research

I also cant find anything on land based pipelines

just this showing a pipeline from what must be Coraf towards the Djeno terminal south

http://www.oilandgasinfrastructure.com/home/oilandgasafrica/congo-brazzaville

So if AAOG can hook into Coraf 17km south of Tilapia would that do it?
Tue 19:34

Congo oil blocks and location of Nene field - Tilapia is also shown.

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/congo-brazzaville/newage-to-sell-its-stake-in-the-marine-xii-oil-block--offshore-the-republic-of-congo-175210

Eni Nene Field description:

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/eni-production-begins-from-nene-marine-field-offshore-congo/

“The Nené Marine field, located at a water depth of 28 meters and close to existing plants, produces from Djeno pre-salt formation”

“During the production test Nené Marine 3 well delivered in excess of 5,000 barrels of oil per day with a density of 36° API.”

Tilapia has density of 43° API – much better, top quality sweet light crude. If co mingled with Eni Djeno production then average would be more profitable overall if sold to them.

The following is ENI description of their assets development in Congo, showingg the rapid pace and scale of bopd that can be achieved by a Major.

https://www.eni.com/en_IT/operations/upstream/exploration-model/congo-nene-marine.page

“Oil produced during the first phase – 7,500 boe/day – is being sent to the Zatchi production platform via a 17km subsea pipeline. Full development of Nené Marine will take place in stages, involving the installation of production platforms and the drilling of more than 30 wells, with output expected to plateau at over 140,000 boe/day”

On timeline, at bottom of page, September 13th:

“17km of Pipeline connecting the New platform and the Zatchi field are laid in three weeks….the oil produced will be sent ACROSS LAND through the pipeline connecting Zatchi and Point Noire”

The Zatchi area is located 40km northeast of Tilapia.

If this is where the land based pipeline goes from towards Point Noire, it starts directly opposite the Nene offshore field, as per the first link figure, so would make some sense - Skittish may confirm.

This land based pipeline could pass reasonably close to Tilapia.

If Eni can lay 17km of pipeline in 3 weeks subsea, they can connect up to Tilapia rapidly for offtake.
Tue 11:12

Finncap note:

"The Tilapia field benefits from having extensive surface infrastructure, which is underutilised and would only require limited capex, such as an additional 5,000 bbl storage tank estimated at $300k, in order to meet AAOG’s forecast production requirements."

This could be paid for by current AAOG funds, if required and would easily cope with 2000 bopd trucked to Coraf until a pipeline built.

Pipeline and well development paid for by offtake finance?

It has to be likely there is a Major tie in to this bearing in mind JB/DS and Exec board extensive contacts, they could readily perform that offtake financing function for a right of first refusal on Tilapia sale as a minimum.

It makes sense for all parties, especially SNPC who could get a Major to front rapid well development and not be limited by AAOG finance ability determining the pace = rapid substantial revenue for them from Djeno

The 25 year licence offered instead of the 20 year requested could have been with this sale in mind, not for AAOG benefit, as they will sell this asset way before that term.

We are told that discussions have been taking place since Turner Pope evening:

“ We have been approached by a couple of major players..that if we increase production from the Djeno and connect to the export terminal, they would like it for their refineries on the East Coast of the US…and we get a Brent price for it”
Tue 09:59

If HAV, BH, FT drill result are positive GH may have to fend off an aggressive take over bid

The response to Paterson East early survey results with this companies record for finding great targets will be very interesting

If the buyer was successful, they presumably get the same NC terms as agreed on Havieron and all the other assets in the bag?

It would still be peanuts for a Major to try and take out GGP for say $250m at this early stage

GH Macquarie background key , he will know all the games.
Tue 09:31

I expect that JB will surprise the market - he is on a mission after all.
He will have supreme confidence now

The Djeno target hit first drill, using a crap piece of kit and a myriad of obstacles overcome along the way, caused by SNPC, SMB, Schlumberger - in fact all the S words.

Now a chance to go into rapid production, cheaply on such a target.

Also the ENI slip up yesterday - not planned, DS not that Machiavellian or a good actor, he was just thinking of the next point he made which was about offtake finance for well development before he had finalised talking about the SNPC repayments - senior moment is all.

JB will know ENI execs in country.
Tue 08:54

• Generally poor communications since March 29th and RNS for Djeno oil to surface
• Missed dates on CPR, production plan for Mengo frac, kit being sourced and its status in Gambia then nothing, “forgotten” plans on well 102 water stimulation, PSA delays and a general news blackout.
• In interview yesterday an apology was made by DS on communications and admittance they could have been handled better which was decent of him, honour is satisfied for me in this regard.
• What was also highlighted in interview more than once was the high work rate in the intervening period to develop the detailed production plan for Djeno from a standing start in April to date which explains the delays.
• I don’t think DS is a typical AIM lifestyle company Director at all, all spin and no substance - he seems a straightforward guy, just not that polished perhaps but he does mean well and he has a superb team doing the tech work, at this stage that’s all that counts.
Tue 08:24

• AAOG are to produce from Djeno, “a transformational result”
• Djeno has a “very large reservoir” and can produce upto 5,000 bopd sustained
• Production plan will be issued very soon and will have timelines, including where the rework drill kit is being sourced , time to be in country, mobilisation and production start expected.
• From RNS last Friday “The team is finalising the operational logistics to achieve this and we intend rapidly to implement the production plan."
• The drills probably cant be provisionally booked or pencilled in either as they are in demand and their use is programmed as far in advance as possible, the operator needs to sweat their assets and get maximum return from them - only hard cash secures them and the shipping company.
• Presumably - if the kit is booked to allow confirmation of these timelines in the Production plan, then it may be paid in full already from SNPC money repaid to date. AAOG wont issue a detailed production plan with stated timelines that falls at the first hurdle due to a vague lack of certainty on funding of the equipment and subsequently no surety on the timelines stated - it would be a complete damp squib with no substance – 10 weeks of detailed pivotal planning work and its report isnt going to have this conclusion with JB managing this plan.
• Its interesting also in interview that 2000 bopd is initial target to allow revenue to flow, keep initial costs down. A focus on costs reduction is also mentioned after 10min, talking about bringing Djeno into production: “so we spend as little money as possible getting there”
• Overall he came across as very confidant and that all is on track – saying multiple times “The Djeno transforms the value of the company”
• This could now develop rapidly
Mon 21:49

Ive been here a while !
ive made posts about this 102 drill a few times

but I was referring to 103C main event

you agree that's why the plan changed?

maybe the intention was to look at the water injection option with the frac kit, I don't know, poor comms to leave 400 bopd on the table, seemed like a quick win to me

but lets focus on Djeno
Mon 21:39

the plan changed from mengo frac to djeno

so different kit and not needed

there were no other production plans
Mon 21:23

Interview 8 mins

"Production plan is very near to finalisation, and including include where going to get the equipment from and the timelines...so theres a lot of work that's gone into that"

If this data is already in this production plan report the:n

kit required is already sourced

actual time to transport to Congo established

time for rig mobilisation known to then go straight into production in the Djeno

That sounds like a complete document with no unknowns


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