Register
Login:
Share:
Email Facebook Twitter


#AST: Board changes and new strategy for Ascent as Hutchinson looks at new projects
EXCLUSIVE: Petro Matad announce fully funded 4 well Mongolia campaign


Member Info for Tiburn


Send a private message to Tiburn

Member Since: Sun, 22nd Oct 2017

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 703
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 215

Last Posted: Sun 20:52


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Sun 20:52

crikey maestro, your a glass is not even there sort!

they may do or not, in some ways no success on 103 would be ok, they may give us the share then.
then 104 would be better to strike Djeno bizarrely

Govt still get the tax revenue in any case regardless

The results are still eventually the same for AAOG over time as more wells come on line.

But this is a strategic Govt goal for their core GDP contribution (90% of exports!) and being seen to enable and support oil exploration by successful minnows like AAOG is far better for them longer term than a few % points profit- their goals are to increase production rapidly as are AAOG
Sun 20:32

Eland oil benchmark in Nigeria
30,000 total bopd, 13,000 net to them

219m shares in issue
278m mkt cap

SP = £1.29

1 - If no Djeno hit in drill 103 - after sentiment retuens:

AAOG just Mengo net bopd equivalent assuming 85 % ownership is assigned and max potential gained

R2, 101, Mengo = 1275 bopd net estimate

At 10% of Eland bopd - SP = 13p - 15p range just with 103 well producing
scale as more wells come on line

2 - Djeno hits in 103

85% of 5000 bopd expected = 4250 net

33% of Eland net bopd value

Assume similar pro rata SP = 43p

With one well
More would be developed
Sun 19:24

The majority of PI have accepted, logged and locked understanding of the drills potential for success and are content to remain loaded until result. No need to second guess, doubt the case, question the potential, this share hits every positive for being in the optimum position in drilling for a 5000 bopd target.
Every single metric to enable success is in place, bar one now - oil, gas or water found with this 103 drill.

There is now only one fact to retain beyond any other - and if in any doubt whatsoever in the coming weeks, I will come back to this foundation.

The Mengo find underpins the company financially, as Align states:

"We believe that the announced success at Mengo could actually really be the game
changer for AAOG. Whatever happens now, the company has been given the opportunity
to become nicely cash flow generative. In the future, it will be a lot easier to finance new
wells. Moving ahead, every well that AAOG drill here is going to target Djeno, such is the size
of the prize. If they don’t hit it in the right place then the well can be completed below the
Mengo."
Sun 18:39

Its an interesting one

PI the last to know

business continues, we could get crumbs from the $ millions table if anything occurs, but a crumb is a crumb.

Who knows whats happening, but some sign of movement at least

Imagine if this comes off! this is so far under the radar its subterranean

worth a top up first thing?
Accra same time zone, conference wont start until later and no news, if any coming, until tomorrow afternoon perhaps.

I will watch the SP in the morning, see what the market knows

Good luck chaps, who dares wins
Sun 17:50

If they are indeed "taking it easy with the pressure" - does that indicate hydrocarbons present and not just 100% water? Also is there any difference in that AAOG are drilling into this reservoir from onshore?
Sun 16:43

Its more possible that the 2.2m buyer, be they PI or institution, no doubt has a capable financial advisor.
Assumed again that advisor understand market and can draw on specialist Geologist/oil experience advisors in turn.

The in depth research into AAOG, technical due diligence and updated COS modelling was done, conclusion was very positive and so the position was taken.

That level of investment may be the start, other PI in that bracket may have performed the same DD process and could take heed and may commit to investment on Monday. Confidence creates confidence.
Sun 10:50

Tiptop, fair one mate, that's also a big positive aswell having SLB onboard

2 more further positives aswell
- company should be underlined financially if Mengo flows
- Porosity completely in line with expectations so far

So the score at the moment for various aspects pre result currently stands at

Positive 21 -1 Negative

That makes AAOG Real Madrid playing as the positive team

and the Dog and Duck Hackney playing for the negative team
Sun 10:29

Many thanks Tiptop

If Carlsberg did pre oil drill results RNS build up best positioning....

- Geo model proving supremely accurate
- Oily drill so far, 44m oil found
- adjacent to proven producing oil fields
- high quality light sweet oil
- gas pressure enabling 5000 bpd oil a day
- low opex
- low capex onshore drill platform
- established offtake agreement, fast route to market monetisation
- 2.2 million buyer, background positioning no doubt
- company drill team confidence is high
- Excellent track record technical and management team
- no debt, 100% owned, low shares in issue
- very supportive pro oil government with established relationships
- owed $10 million, potential for increased production share
- License extension imminent
- New asset announcement imminent...

I'm sure there are more

I cant think of negatives that have any relevance at this time..
Sun 10:23

HAD006 – 363m total of visible mineralisation, continuing to end of hole
HAD007 - 237m total visible mineralisation, continuing to end of hole
HAD008 - 90m total visible mineralisation, continuing to end of hole
HAD009 - 227m total visible mineralisation, continuing to end of hole
Sun 10:01

No worries

You posted back to me after 5 mins, have another read perhaps ( if you have the time and inclination to wade through my post!)

the key point I'm making is that:

There was visible mineralisation of 55m recorded
followed by assayed result of 55m of high grade gold/copper – exactly the same value in this example.

Instus bought in more after this
Sun 09:57

Strongman

Great summary position statement.

The most telling aspect for me you outlined was JB statement:

''it is better for everyone if I let my work do the talking''
Sun 09:05

RTC, when I said value, I mean credence and veracity as regards the visible mineralisation, how accurate this may be in terms of gold being present or not and how much confidence we may be able to take from this - not SP value.

I know you always take the contrary view, that's fine, but hopefully you can see my point.
Sun 09:00

Great posts as always

I can research this, but wondered if you had previously?

As we are drilling into Djeno first time our COS lower rather than additional perforation into a proven oil bearing reservoir as per the current producers.
Do you know the drill success rate for ENI, Total, Soco etc just for their initial drills targeting the Djeno oil rim?
Sun 08:27

The visible mineralisation is the point and how much value we could assign to that, not the SP trajectory of that share which is driven by a host of factors, oh great learned one
are you even invested?
Sun 08:20

Benchmarking the evolution of other gold explorers as their results come in is useful for evaluating GGP growth expectation. Following assays, Institutional investors may be expected, these longer term shareholders should enable less volatility in the shareprice movements, more potential that GGP SP fair value is retained during the current hot season without any further drilling in Paterson.

Visible mineralisation = gold and copper expectation much higher than AIM market assigns.

Benchmark example, PolarX and their Alaska Zackly deposit, July 12th 2018

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/200633/polarx-intersects-visible-copper-and-gold-mineralisation-at-alaska-range-project-200633.html

“The drilling hit a 55 metre down-hole width of visible copper oxide mineralisation ….The width of the mineralisation observed in the drill hole indicates a potential large mineralised system….visible gold mineralisation was visible from 100.5 metres down-hole within a chloritised, mineralised breccia zone, around 0.9 metres thick…the visible copper mineralisation was seen commencing near the surface…It forms a broadly mineralised zone with variable amounts of copper oxides extending from 2.5 metres to 57.14 metres down-hole…”

Polar X successfully raised $3.9 million just two weeks after the visible mineralisation news, the ASX market values and accepts this news is material.

Subsequent assay result, August 15th

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/202901/polarx-hits-high-grade-gold-and-copper-alaska-range-resource-increase-expected-202901.html

T"he first assay results from the 5-hole program included a hit of 55 metres at 2.8 g/t gold, 0.6% copper ...in hole ZX-18020….within this were 11.5 metres from 2.5 metres at 0.6% copper, 5.3 g/t gold and 12 g/t silver; 8.8 metres from 18.3 metres at 0.5% copper, 5.8 g/t gold and 5.6 g/t silver; and 11.3 metres from 32 metres at 0.8% copper, 1.8 g/t gold and 23.3 g/t silver…”

So visible mineralisation of 55m followed by assayed result of 55m of high grade gold/copper – exactly the same.

Further assay results:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/203256/polarx-hits-up-to-32-copper-and-93-gt-gold-below-zackly-resource-at-alaska-range-203256.html

Includes photo of visible gold/copper mineralisation from cores, identical to HAD005 core photos.

PolarX attracting Institutional investors:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/211443/polarx-substantial-shareholder-jpmorgan-chase--co-boosts-interest-to-973-211443.html

“PolarX Ltd’s (ASX:PXX) New York-based substantial shareholder JPMorgan Chase & Co and affiliates have increased their substantial holding to 9.73% from 8.65%....JPMorgan Chase’s London-based subsidiary JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited on December 14 acquired more than 5.666 million shares worth $340,000. This lifted the prominent investor’s total holding to more than 31.071 million shares.”
Sat 21:20

Your right, if you just look at the facts, geology, drill results to date being as expected and modelled, and justifiably extrapolate then the 25% COS is starting to look very low indeed.

But que sera sera
Sat 21:05

One for Tiptop to answer

But original Djeno wells were gas and condensate back in the day, so its all commercial, just more challenging it seems

Broker:

"The CPR predicts that the Djeno sands in the Tilapia structure will be gas-bearing with an oil rim. The majority of wells drilled near the licence have yielded wet gas with a producible oil rim, as evidenced in the Nene-Lidongo trend. The key difficulty with an oil rim development is management of production from the gas cap, which will be difficult to do even with horizontal wells.
If the Djeno sandstones hold significant quantities of gas above the oil rim the company will pursue commercialisation options as part of the wider field-development plan. The most likely routes being either local/regional markets for gas or local gas to power development (which is favoured by the Government and SNPC)."
Sat 20:48

Fjones

Your scenario is the most logical of any ive read to date

If no RNS mon then SP down or up? will be good volume in any case :)

More buying from the optimists, more selling by those expecting news and thinking any perceived delay can only equate to bad news. As we both have said, the later the news is the better next week perhaps.

AAOG could find strike Djeno oil this drill , or next drill or the one after, I can wait.
Sat 20:19

The fact that no news has been released/leaked is good, if no oil shows then no need to hold back bad news, just get it out there and focus on next drill, Mengo production and revenue stream fast track.

- AAOG confidence is very high, this team are very experienced
- AAOG started drilling around last Saturday Jan 5th
- Finalised Mengo drilling at 1900m depth 800m TOTAL target, 14 days drilling to date = conservative 57m average a day for 800m but that’s to bottom of drill TD not to the top of the Djeno structure, expected around at 2500m-2650m deep
- DS relative comms silence or giving little away - as in last interview -engineers would be mad if any depth information stated by DS
- It adds up that they have hit and gone through the Djeno structure already, are at TD and now testing to see exactly what they have found
- No “oil to water “scenarios will be entertained, no premature comms on expectations as happened at Mengo stage pre RNS, no early unregulated social media nod and wink will occur.

Expect just a professional, controlled and factual RNS is to be released based on actual results, Monday or Tuesday.
Sat 09:16

Trading on Aim for a micro cap could be likened to being a poor immigrant, but with promise, arriving at Boston docks in 1870.

Shysters, con artists, tyranny and inequity at every turn, the local ner do wells (MM, shorters) lying in wait to scam you of everything you have, providing toxic debt facilities, keeping you down on any rise or momentum, business suitors holding the promise of riches beyond measure disappear in a moment leaving you with ashes, all with the affect of keeping the microcap in this low value zone as long as possible, to fleece them of all they have, rob their momentum, again and again.

But if they can break free and ride into open country then the true promise can be realised.
I get the feeling that GGP has now broken free and is on that road towards the vision of success we know is possible, there will by highwaymen along the way to be sure, but the company are wiser now - and armed - with the Havieron six shooter and Black Hills Tomahawk.


Sign up for Live Prices
Top Recommended
Hot Chat Topics
Top recommended posters in the last 30 days
Alfacomp4,125
Pdub3,774
RichKen3,035
Wassatt2,226
Troajan2,151
knuttie1,727
langtro1,550
Nickderby1,531





Member Login

Forgotten your password?
Email:

Password:


Don't have an account? Click here to Register Free!




Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look. While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.