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Member Info for Thoth2

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Member Since: Wed, 11th Feb 2015

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 806
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 43

Last Posted: Tue 10:31

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Tue 10:31

yup. I topped up last week at .73. suspect there is rumours of a place. depends on SRRA plans. If we get the £6m milestone this year not needed as cash burn should be quite low. If SRRA are vague about plans not good. But there is obvs value here, and we have the right to take the compound back if SRRA slow development (as per the unredacted bits of the contract on SRRA website). hey ho. Tyk2 update was intimated H1, so expecting hopefully 2 spike in the next 30 days (1st June & Tyk2). If they dont release any Tyk2 data shall be seriously pissed off.
Mon 23:38

Just waiting as usual. From a reread we are safe which opens door to more combo trials. Looks like they have found something in ovarian hence Recruitment going up 4 fold. And seem to have something in anogenital cancer. Cervix colon rectum. Colon cancer 3rd biggest killer. So looks good in.some indications. Suspect srra is starting the beauty parade to On licence. I also suspect the new noted combo trials with niraparib in prostate and a pd-l1 in lung cancer are additional scope to the original contract and may trigger additional milestones to us on first dosing. My opinion only but may explain the delay. But we have lots of profile at major cancer centres and research institutes. All advisers to big pharma. So am being stoic and awaiting data. Seen nothing bad to date and srra are better at sticking to dates than sar to be honest. Gla
Thu 20:13

Spell check. 1. Should read icr. 3 should read anogenital cancer. Nb this includes cervical
Thu 19:47

If you look on the Sierra website. The announcement on the presentations are interesting. It looks to me like
1. I've very much involved as they are presenting.
2. As they have Recruited above target and are still recruiting I suspect they have found it works in some genetic variants better than others. And are therefore recruiting more with those variants to get a statistically valid result
3. It looks to me like the combo trial has worked in congenital cancer and will be progressing to p3 sooner rather than later.
Thu 12:39

If you wish to target APOBEC as the article suggests. Then you might want a TYK2 & Jak 1 inhibitor.
If only we had one of those :)
Thu 09:35

Num4. Totally agree. The major worry was safety. Now removed. Expecting the combo trials licences to follow shortly xxxx
Thu 01:18

Will take a while for market to catch up.
The caution was see kinase inhibitors safe ?
Today's data suggests yes if the molecule is good enough
Has a halo effect on tyk2. Bms tyk2 has shown is safe. Pfizer jak1 today implies is safe and effective. Lth but hoping for a it if oomph on lack of competitors and now proven ability on molecule design where the big boys have expensively failed. Xx
15 May '19

They have aced it on side effects which was the category concern. C 30 % anaemia vs c 95% neutropenia on Lilly's dropped. I await the informed analysis. But looks like the class is good. And we are the one and only. Bum has stopped twitching. Xxxx happy boy
15 May '19

Pfizer have released good p3 data on their jak1 today in a topical dermatitis
14 May '19

The comprator data for prexasertib (Lilly) in HGSOC that we want to beat either on efficacy or side effects
"Eight (33%, 95% CI 16Ė55) of 24 patients assessable per protocol had partial responses. In the intention-to-treat population, eight (29%, 95% CI 13Ė49) of 28 had a partial responses. The most common (in >10% patients) grade 3 or 4 treatment-emergent adverse events were neutropenia in 26 (93%) of 28 patients, reduced white blood cell count in 23 (82%), thrombocytopenia in seven (25%), and anaemia in three (11%). Grade 4 neutropenia was reported in 22 (79%) patients after the first dose of prexasertib and was transient "
If we dont beat probably a limited future. If we comforatably beat (due to better selectivity allowing higher dosing, fewer side effects, and the low dose gem combo being as efficacious as preclinical predicts). then it is game on. and Lilly may even come for a look. Perhaps they already have which led to them dropping Prexasertib as we have been in pre clinical studies at the same labs, and ovarian trials at the same hospitals (Marsden & Christie). should find out tomorrow
14 May '19

a company on aim with a tangible product. in supermarkets here and the US, with marketing authorisation, and seemingly good cost control and funded for the foseeable. blimey. there is a first for everything.
12 May '19

Srra wouldn't present 2 papers if data is bad. Nick glover srra ceo has a history of selling at phase3. I suspect they will sell on. We still get our milestones. Still get royalties. And someone who can fund 10 trials is better than someone who has to focus on just one due to cash priorities. Roll on Wednesday.
10 May '19

IJt. Que sera sera. We don't know the data. We don't know the milestone. I do know Morgan stanley increased their holding in srra. So we are aligned with the squid of capitalism. A week to go. Gla
8 May '19

The refund happened
8 May '19

SRRA have a lot to fund coming up.
A phase 3 for 737 isnt cheap. poss 20M-40M just in ovarian. and there are other indications in the P2 trials that may be worth pushing ahead with.
The Janssen Parp combo in prostate yet to start
SCLC combo from the recent paper at AACR
And potentially a combo in skin from the paper yesterday.
Plus SSRAs 2 other compounds due to start each with a $5m milestone on first dosing.
Thats quite a lot to prioritise and a hefty raise. Hoping that the data is good enough at ASCO to get a bumper raise out of the way and push on with our trials.
8 May '19

There was a research note on sareum a few months ago, that had such good info it must have been briefed by sareum. It suggested a milestone of c £6m this year.
I suspect the timeline will be. Data at Asco (initial abstracts published 15th, full papers end of month). SRRA fundraise of the back (they need funds for several other trials to start). milestone off the back of that. SRRA are not disclosing the milestones as they may be double edged for them. If they get fastrack and it goes on sale after phase2, we will get some of the back end loaded milestones then, which could be larger than they want to disclose and not spook a fundraise. Overall there seems to be no loss of appetite to progress 737, and their trial costs for it increased last quarter so looks like they are still keen.
6 May '19

Timescale is my major variable. If srra get fastrack. 4p in milestones in a year. Then 1p a year divide.
I have triangulated several times and always end up at 28p. The best outcome is good Asco data. A major licencing in multiple indications. So I have raised my limitvsells to 125p. 28p is more sensible. May be worth nothing. My horizon is 2 years if fastrack off good results. If slowtrack possibly 5 years. All imho lots of variables. Don't riskb
4 May '19

Obvs someone reported me for posting a factual observation that I will repeat below over the bank holiday.
The new investors have rights over 75% of the capital. If there proves to be an upside they can take it private on the cheap. Little upside for pis. Not like they haven't done it before. And of course we have confidence in the current bod for managing finances. If there is an upside investors won't see it. Transfer of wealth . Uncanny frequency of posting directly correlated to his stress levels as he hasn't teased up to the missus that there is no holiday this year (or next. Or the year after)
4 May '19

It's not a ramped stock. And most of us have lost enough in bio to know the scores.
It may be chk1 is knackered.
It may be no milestone imminent and a funding
But with my cynical hat on. I don't think srra would be publishing negative data at Asco on the 15th. As it would arse their next fundraise. If they returned the drug bingo. Curing 80% of lung cancer in mice is pretty excellent. So I presume data is good enough to raise srra funds for a subsequent raise. Srra is probably worth 3* current cap with good data. Based on array deal chk1. If the data good our Peak sales 3bn to 6bn. Which is 5p to 10p a year in royalties to sar. 50p to 100p share price on a 10% discount rate. Most aim bios lose the lot. Some rocket. We are grown ups. I don't think the 15th results will be spectacular. But I suspect they will be better than anything else for people with few options. Fine line but it may be enough. Gla. No guarantees.

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