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EXCLUSIVE: Oil analyst Barney Gray discusses the latest from Tower, Coro, Colter, Reabold & United Watch Here

EXCLUSIVE: Oil analyst Barney Gray discusses the latest from Tower, Coro, Colter, Reabold & United
UPDATE: #COPL set timeline for Q2/Q3 Nigeria drilling programme

Member Info for Rodders74

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Member Since: Tue, 10th Jul 2018

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,393
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 212

Last Posted: Today 08:35

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Today 08:35

SS is smarter than DL... We've given them a lot fewer shares at 1.62p than we would have at 1.36p. Poor DL is desperate for the cash, and will have to sell part of the holding at a discount... Poor sausage.
Today 05:07

Traders and trolls consider the SP, in the early days of company development a LTH looks at strategy, business plans and early cash flow.

UKOG great strategy, great business plan and free cash flow coming soon enough.

Thank you. We know your agenda.
Wed 22:27

I've been busy with work, very busy. And busy with family and many other things. Always the case in pre Springtime.

UKOG keep striding forward, the like of UJO and AAOG and AMGS keep disappointing. UKOG all the way to the bank.

Brent cruising nicely to my forecast of $74 by end of March, I have repeated that forecast since pre Xmas.

Plenty of great news to come or UKOG, the Weald is proving it's value. 2.5p this year and 9p by end of 2022 my prediction.. I'm holding long and strong. No exit until 2023 earliest for me..

Thank you and good night. xxxx
Tue 15:33

They are on troll duty again, trying to push the sentiment of any uneducated/poorly researched into a scare sell. Drive that SP down so that they can buy shares on the cheap. This is already cheap IMHO and I wish the likes of drop zone would go find something else to trade.

Big news to drop the next 3 to 4 months:
20th March - SCC planning meeting for the 4 extra wells at HH + production approvals.
30th Match - Annual accounts to be filed at Companies House
TBC April - Drill of HH2 / HH1z
TBC Q1/Q2 - Updated CPR for Portland
TBC Q1/Q2 - The long awaited CPR for the Kimmeridge showing recoverable reserves.

AND that is just for HH.

Not forgetting Arreton IoW, BB, Godley Bridge, and Dunsfold.

All gearing up for a big few months...
Tue 14:29

Here are the 8 trades of 1 million shares or more today.
The most recent 3, are all 1 million precisely, and that for me smells of DOR selling.
If they need £500k then they need to shift ~36 lots of 1 million shares @ 1.4p

2019-02-19 - 13:25:30 __ 1.40 __ 1,000,000 £14,022 - SELL -- DOR?
2019-02-19 - 12:44:28 __ 1.40 __ 1,000,000 £14,000 - SELL -- DOR?
2019-02-19 - 11:58:43 __ 1.39 __ 1,000,000 £13,877 - SELL -- DOR?
2019-02-19 - 09:24:19 __ 1.40 __ 2,000,000 £27,980 - BUY -- BUYER?
2019-02-19 - 09:22:38 __ 1.39 __ 1,118,936 £15,514 - SELL -- PI?
2019-02-19 - 08:53:11 __ 1.40 __ 1,429,592 £20,000 - SELL -- PI?
2019-02-19 - 08:07:59 __ 1.38 __ 1,086,170 £15,000 - SELL -- PI?
2019-02-19 - 08:07:46 __ 1.38 __ 1,772,398 £24,459 - SELL -- PI?
Tue 08:15

In the short term.

As per my posts yesterday, I firmly believe that DOR are selling a significant chunk of their 130 odd million shares. I think these are being sold in 1 million chunks.

Keep an eye out for the trades over the next few days, when the 1 million sells dry up, then maybe we will see the SP move back up.

I can understand why SS paid for DOR's 6% holding in HHDL with shares, but frankly I would question this if UKOG had sufficient cash in the back to fully fund 2019 and buy DOR for cash. Its now killing the SP again when we were on a nice upward trend.
Tue 07:51


Reserves are a moot point. We need the CPR.

The Portland CPR needs updating following the EWT, I expect good things there.
The Kim has never had a CPR, so we would be guessing on what it can deliver.

The CPR's will want printing, reading, highlighter pen. They are bloody big. Can't wait for them to land, but I do think April is likely.
Tue 02:33

Lol. Beer induced.

Check my language and tone. Difference is huge.

I already own 0.2% of UKOG and I don't want a further slice, I've already exceeded my rule concerning portfolio investment in a single stock or fund.

I'd love to say 4p, and we can't discount the possibility of that happening.

I've not been kidnapped I promise.

That was probably my most balanced view to date, apologies if it is a bit shy of where you would like to see it.

I have huge appreciation and great anticipation for the UKOG. SS is a cracking bloke and the business strategy and drill plans are first rate.

I do expect 2019 to deliver some great strides forward, but it is the next 4 years ending Dec 2022 that I see a bigger play. Small steps but at the end of it we'll see a really well developed onshore producer that's grown organically.

You did not ask my SP prediction each year.

2019 : 2.5p
2020 : 4p
2021 : 6p
2022 : 9p

I'm very optimistic about the SP and you now know my forecast.

I've recently revised my exit strategy and I'm not selling a bean until 2023.
Mon 20:55

That's a huge question Johnboy. And answering it would leave the door open for the derampers and trolls to attack me.

BUT, you did ask an honest question and so I will give my view on the SP.

My own estimate is that the SP will exceed 2.5p. I'm not ramping and I would not want anybody to consider investing on the basis of my opinion. It's just an opinion, we are all entitled to one. I don't think we can talk about 3p or 4p or higher. The plans for 2019 are robust. If everything delivers and if the sidetracks at HH are as good as we hope, then the funding for 2020 and beyond will be there. The sentiment would also return and i could only see that reaping many positives.

Longer term, 2022, I'm expecting UKOG to have the following:
HH - 6 wells, producing 2500 to 3500 bopd
BB - 3 wells producing 1500 to 2250 bopd
Godley Bridge - 3 wells producing 1500 bopd, and potentially big gas play
Arreton IoW - 2 to 4 wells producing 1200 to 2400 bopd

So 14 to 16 wells by end of 2022, producing 6700 to 9650 bopd.

As for price of oil, I have repeatedly said my target is $74 by end of March 2019. Over the next 4 years I expect a range of $65 to $110, with an average of $85.

So now I've opened the door to criticism, but this is my opinion.

Please do you own research, be thorough, and be careful. This is a very interesting time and whilst I retain a strong buy outlook I'd also be mindful of the risks.

Cheers for asking. Honest answer given.
Mon 18:55

I think the dip is purely down to DOR selling. MMs cannot shift the volumes without dropping the price. I could be wrong. But let's see what happens when the 1 million sells cease. see my earlier posts about DOR, they need cash badly, spread their wings too quickly and now have no cash to speak of and huge cash calls coming up.
Mon 15:30

Go check their interim accounts for the first half of 2018:

Key extract from page 10:
"Results for the period:
Loss for the period to 30 June 2018 amounted to £396,000 (2017: £180,000 loss) which included £339,000 (2017:
£241,000) of administration costs and £24,000 (2017: £25,000) of Oil Field expenses.

Total revenue for the period was £13,000 (2017: £nil)."

They are burning £396k every 6 months, or roughly £66k per month.

Further down in the report, you will see that they had cash in the bank of £387k.

That is why back in November I tweeted DL and asked when they would be placing. he said they would not be, but then guess what, in early Dec 2018, they did 2 placings to raise cash. They raised $491k AUS dollars, which is roughly £250k GBP. So that together with the £387k gives them a total of roughly £637k.

£66k / month burn rate, £637k = ~10 months. July 2018 to April 2019 = 10 months.

Hence the need for them to raise money to pay for cash calls or reduce expenditure. No placing so they must be selling UKOG shares.
Mon 15:19

Agreed Rafafan... Watch out for him...
Mon 14:57

DOR are pretty screwed.

Go check their annual accounts, their burn rate and their revenues.

Cash strapped, with big cash calls comings.

They dont grow money on trees down in Australia. So even if they are making a loss, they are probably selling... I'm not trusting a single word DL has to say on the matter.
Mon 14:34

DOR are selling out. They were given £2.1 million in UKOG shares last week. I think they are selling a good % of those to bolster their weak cash position. If DOR did nothing, then they would be out of cash by end of April at the latest. They have continued cash calls with HH (2 drills to come and 4% of the costs to pay for, at ~£3million per drill, they are looking at 4% of £6 million, so ~£240k). They do not have £240k left in the accounts, and they have practically no revenue, so only way to cover their costs is to sell UKOG shares or to do a placing... No placing as yet, so I think they are selling UKOG.

That is why David Lenigas (DOR DEO) was so furious a few weeks back and was saying that Paul Vonk (former CEO of Angus) had to go. David Lenigas was probably banking on some revenues from the Angus Brockham operation, as DOR have a stake there. But as ANGS couldn't organise a booze up in a brewery, DL was left high and dry... DOR business plans up in smoke.

DOR selling UKOG shares in 1 million chunks in my theory. Not sure that they will sell the full £2.1 million worth. And Correct, I do not trust DL when he says "he is not selling", that does not mean that DOR are not selling, and why would he admit to selling, especially if they plan to keep ~50% of their holdings.
Mon 13:11

I'm not expecting a CPR until April
Mon 12:43

The next big news dates:
20th March - SCC Planning meeting - application for production at HH including the drilling of 4 new wells and a support well.
30th March - Annual accounts - keep an eye out for the filing.

Until then, we may see the odd RNS on the EWT, but unless we see a TR1, then I dont expect the SP to go north of 1.6p.

Good luck all long term holders...
Sun 17:29

And it lessens our dependency on Russia and the middle East. Home grown is much better than imported.
Sun 15:01

The whingers are happy for huge volumes of traffic in and out of the Tesco, Lidl and Waitrose. Not to mention the immense volumes of traffic in and out of the airport at Gatwick... But an extra 20 tankers a day is unacceptable?

The HH site is close to an excellent road network. Sorry nimbies, but you cannot have it both ways... You love your Waitrose, and you'll just have to make do with the tankers.
Sun 10:25

That guy is a waste of good air...
Fri 12:45


Keeps climbing.

Will hit my $74 End of March target

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