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Member Info for Pdub


Send a private message to Pdub

Member Since: Tue, 17th Dec 2013

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 2,645
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 327

Last Posted: Mon 15:14


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




10 Jun '19

We should be pleased but not surprised by the continued rise in Vanadium prices. Remember that Terry Perles ("soon") and others not only predicted this recovery but gave very plausible reasons why.

To be honest I don't really care why ... just very encouraged to see what looks like a sustained rise in Vanadium prices.

If this leads to a significant relate in V price it should quickly translate into higher share price for BMN. Perhaos more importantly it provides a better base for what many of us expect ... a flow of positive news pushing the sp up to levels more reflective of what this company is achieving.

I agree with others that say the professional shorters will know when to exit ("soon"?) but the nasty little amateurs may well get caught. I do hope so.

Just my opinion.
9 Jun '19

I believe significant rises in the sp will not be delivered by a single factor. Diversity is the name of the game with BMN. You could argue it's the USP.

Therefore I think a combination of news will drive the sp in the coming months. Obviously the V price rising will play a significant part but it needs to combine with increasing production at Vametco, completion of the Vanchem deal, JSE listing, significant BE developments, Mokopane licence, etc.

As these things all fall into place the market will respond. How quickly and how far? Sorry but I don't have a crystal ball, but I expect the sp to end the year a long way north of here.

2019 / 2020 looking very exciting.

Just my opinion.
9 Jun '19

Thanks for that Paludina. Thought I would draw it to your attention just in case it's relevant. My first thought was were some ships avoiding the port if paperwork etc problematic. Unlikely though.

Regards. Pdub.
9 Jun '19

All that guff don't confuse people's right to challenge your views with"shouting them down".

Where is the false optimism?

Have you read the RNSs?
Have you seen the recently reported increases in V price?
Have you understood the strategic skills of the BoD, backed by the technical support of the Profs Viljoen, leading experts on the Bushveld?
Do you understand how well placed BMN is to benefit from the fledgling VRFB industry?
Have you understood how the vertical integration model (now being acknowledged as the way forward by others in the industry) allows BMN to benefit wherever the V price goes?
Have you not noticed the production increase in March p, hopefully heralding the success of changes made at Vametco?
Have you not understood the significance of acquiring Vanchem, and largely with in house funds?
Have you not understood the significance of diversifying both the number of production bases and the range of products?
Have you not understood raised revenues by more than 6,700% over two years?
Etc etc

Remember that BMN was one of the best performing AIM shares in 2017, even when Zuma was in control.

This is no false optimism. All the evidence points to a great future for this company and its shareholders, whatever you may choose to think.
9 Jun '19

It may explain why containers have been delivered to other ports. Just speculation on my part of course.
9 Jun '19

Paludina are you aware of the cyber attack going on for a few weeks now that has shut down much of the Baltimore Govt functions? I am wondering if this is affecting published info on Nitrovan shipments landing in Baltimore?

Plenty of info on the Internet about the cyber attack.

Regards. Pdub.
9 Jun '19

Yes atg... Under Zuma.

Ramaphosa in charge now.

Now can we agree to differ and let the bb get on with BMN. You will be well aware that I am very tenacious and will happily argue all day long on this. I would suggest that is not in the interests of the BMN bb. Ball in your court. Back to BMN or more of this. You have the controls.
9 Jun '19

Faramog if there is one thing I resent it is misrepresentation of what another poster has said. Who here has ever implied all milk and honey in SA? I certainly haven't. Or are you stating that as your opinion lol.

And your other comment "Ramaphosa has a mandate yada yada yada" hmmm.

Sorry Faramog but it is a fact! Prior to the election there was some doubt that the ANC would achieve even 50% of the vote. However they did and by a significant margin. Ramaphosa reversed the slide in ANC support, has a majority and therefore a clear mandate for his reforms and anti corruption policies.

I am no lover of the ANC though I do admire Mandela. Ramaphosa was his preferred choice as successor but that was blocked by others in the ANC. Finally he has secured that role as President. SA needs stable Government, something that arguably we don't enjoy at present.

I wonder how much ANY UK political party would give to secure 50% or more of the vote? Ramaphosa's mandate is much stronger than any party in the UK currently!

Nobody underestimates the scale of the challenges ahead but he has the strength and experience to move the reforms forward. This will take time and will not be easy.

More importantly Ramaphosa is very experienced and knowledgable about SA's mining industry and has identified that as a sunrise industry. BMN sit in a position that absolutely delivers his policies. That is the most important point for me as a BMN shareholder.

As far as investment is concerned remember that BMN is debt free and a large part of their business ambitions will be self funded. The decline in the value of the Rand and a rising V price will both work strongly in our favour.

It is definitely not all milk and honey but changes are going in the right direction in SA for BMN. It is not without risk but SA needs Ramaphosa to succeed. The alternative would be far worse.

Just my opinion.
9 Jun '19

And thanks to faramog too. Hadn't noticed that you posted same link earlier.
9 Jun '19

Good find loudspeaker. That should make H 2 very interesting!
8 Jun '19

allthatguff cynicism is very easy. Fixing a country is much more difficult. Fortunately there are people less cynical that are prepared to give the new Government(which by the way is not just a change of President!!!) a chance.

I am very encouraged by what Ramaphosa is trying to do. You are entitled to your opinion but so am I. His ambitions for SA place BMN right in the frontline to gain Govt support. As a shareholder I am delighted with that.
8 Jun '19

LUCAN I disagree. Most well researched contributors to this bb would freely admit that any AIM investment has risks attached. It's a question of balancing risk v reward.

I would rewrite your risk list as follows:

If V price didn't recover this would have a significant drag on the sp until production levels increase to generate more profit. However most analysts of vanadium conclude that the structural deficit is likely to continue and this makes a stagnant V price unlikely. Note we are already seeing a possible start of that v price increase.

Eskom issues are real. However the Govt is behind the move to renewables and energy storage, plus interventions from organisations such as the World Bank are likely to offset some of this risk.

Mokopane has been delayed and we know that corruption in the licensing office of that region is being dealt with. Nobody knows when the licence will be granted but given current Govt policy I would expect a speeding up of the process. Bear in mind that BMN seem confident that this will happen within the year, reference comments about Mokopane supplying Vanchem.

No one can dispute that SA has political risk. One has to ask has that risk diminished with the removal of the previous corrupt regime. I believe it has and President Ramophosa has considerable experience in the mining industry and sees it as a sunrise industry.

For me the rewards considerably outweigh the risks, making this one of the best investments I have made. That is why I remain positive and focussed on the potential rewards of investing in BMN.

Of course just my opinion.

Regard. Pdub
8 Jun '19

For me the problem with ATM is a m/c of less than 24 million facing dilution of 20 - 30 million.

100% dilution is big risk to sp. I would want to test market reaction to that first. It may be very positive as it leads to much higher production, but this is AIM so for me this is a very significant risk.

I'll stick with BMN.

However I must emphasise that this is purely a personal opinion. I may be wrong, and in spite of the above perceived risk I think ATM has excellent long term prospects which may entice me to invest.

Regards. Pdub.
8 Jun '19

Very surprised at your conclusion faramog.

BMN has strong cash flow.
No debt.
About to buy a second producing plant, considerably reducing the risk attached to just one production site.
Unlikely to need significant dilution in foreseeable future.
Developing a diversity of products that hedge against commodity price fluctuations.
Within a reasonable timeframe may become the largest primary producer of vanadium.
Holds almost 10% interest in ATM !!!
Increasing production at Vametco using its own profits.
About to become a leading player in the new energy storage industry.

As far as SA is concerned I think you are overplaying the risk. President Ramaphosa has laid out a clear message about tackling corruption. BMN business plan is totally in line with the SA Govt's ambitions so I expect to see plenty of support from that direction.

I am sure ATM is a good prospect and no doubt you have a significant investment there. However I am afraid I don't agree with your risk comparison at this stage. I will re-evaluate ATM after the significant dilution required.

In the meantime I see BMN as one of the safest and best prospects on AIM.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.
8 Jun '19

Very surprised at your conclusion faramog.

BMN has strong cash flow.
No debt.
About to buy a second producing plant, considerably reducing the risk attached to just one production site.
Unlikely to need significant dilution in foreseeable future.
Developing a diversity of products that hedge against commodity price fluctuations.
Within a reasonable timeframe may become the largest primary producer of vanadium.
Holds almost 10% interest in Afritin !!!
8 Jun '19

The reference to Vametco was purely to highlight the strategic brilliance of the BoD. That is very relevant today as the company is close to concluding the deal to purchase a second brownfield plant, once again saving many millions in capex and possibly years in development. And there were hints on the video that other opportunities may be explored. And a large part of the funding will be provided by the profits from Vametco.

The Vametco acquisition turned the company into the cash cow that it is today and raised the sp from 2p, giving many shareholders a very large ROI. The Vanchem acquisition has the potential to considerably add to those returns. Only a complete fool would fail to understand the significance of Vametco in terms of where the company is heading.

That strategic skill is also being directed towards the development of the energy storage business and the huge potential that offers. Vametco demonstrates that Fortune not only has the ideas but delivers them. Thus we can be confident about current and future plans being delivered.

As far as production is concerned March figure of 270 mtV demonstrates that the plant is now delivering higher output thanks to the changes introduced. No doubt everyone looks forward to seeing the Q2 figures! And let's not forget the nearly 1000 mtV pa additional output from Vanchem once that deal is complete.

Remember Fortune realised the opportunities with Vanadium way before the market did. No doubt his original partners the Profs Viljoen were instrumental in identifying that opportunity. And his model of a large, low cost, vertically integrated vanadium platform is now being recognised by others in the industry as the way forward. Whether others can deliver like Fortune has is open to debate.

The low cost model is important in protecting the company against the ups and downs of the market, a point he acknowledges in the video. Thus Vametco is making a very healthy profit even with V price where it is. With the V price on the up those profits will increase.

I think it is fair to say that the performance of the company has been astonishingly good.

Just my opinion.
7 Jun '19

OF If I wanted your opinion I would ask for it. I didn't and I don't.

If you think this is not a good investment then don't invest
7 Jun '19

Fortune's interview was perhaps the best yet, and an excellent insight not only to where the company is going but also the early history of the company with partners the Profs Viljoen and Anthony Viljoen.

Confirmed for the doubters that BMN is a mining AND processing company. Puts that one to bed.

Also confirmed that 50% or more of product goes to the US.

Very illuminating on just how brilliant the strategy was to acquire Vametco.

Reaffirmed that the VRFB market has the potential to be 10 times the commodity market.

Loved the end:

"Can you give us 5 reasons for investing in BMN?"

Slight pause.

".... I've got 7."

Well done Fortune.
7 Jun '19

Small profit because it was you that said only trading part of your holding. Now move on young man. It's getting boring.
7 Jun '19

It was meant sincerely St0wski. Why so defensive?


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