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EXCLUSIVE: Oil analyst Barney Gray discusses the latest from Tower, Coro, Colter, Reabold & United Watch Here

EXCLUSIVE: Oil analyst Barney Gray discusses the latest from Tower, Coro, Colter, Reabold & United
UPDATE: #COPL set timeline for Q2/Q3 Nigeria drilling programme


Member Info for Ophidian


Premium Member

Send a private message to Ophidian

Member Since: Thu, 4th Dec 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,114
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 365

Last Posted: Today 12:38


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Today 12:38

@Mitch - thanks for the China tips - appreciated.

Ophidian
Today 12:26

I really need to put my fingers on a diet or read what I type. Hong Kong obviously
Today 12:24

Will do Mitch - off to the embassy to get the visa in about a week. I understand it can take several days. Not actually off the China until the start of April. You'll know as I'll "go dark" for a period until I hit Honk Kong or Japan.

Ophidian (check your inbox Knuttie)
Today 12:01

@TimeNotTiming - no need to get huffy - you could give the alternative view that the earth is flat, when there are more knowledgeable and better informed people around to assure you it is Round you can either choose to learn or continue to flaunt your ignorance. Sorry but this conversation is over.

Ophidian (still without an R although you obviously saw one to begin with and now know better)
Today 11:46

No - it did not - just like a magic trick you saw what you were supposed to see. The actual Bid and offer prices never changed. Less than 1 minute after your alleged price drop shares traded at 38.85

Ophidian (no R)
Today 11:44

If anything the mid price showing at 39 is a little off. Real spread is currently 38.78 / 38.525

Ophidian
Today 11:39

@TimeNotTiming - there was no sudden price drop it was an entirely spurious 1 share being cleared out in the auction

Ophidian
Today 11:18

@Knuttie - if you don't mind, can that wait to the weekend please. I have the spreadsheet and the calculations, I'd just like to check it out see us through to the weekend before committing fingers to keyboard. Also - I'm not convinced we are best served by my giving a Target price anymore. I'll certainly suggest a range for timescale and I think the direction is pretty obvious.

Given that it is you asking, if you send me an email to BMNophidian at gmail.com (correct as required) then I will share my numbers. Send me the email with a "code word" in it, then publish the code word here under your Avatar, and I'll know it's you and not a spoofer !!

Ophidian
Today 10:47

@Expert10201 - No, we don't know for sure that First Island are the sellers, but as I posted in the last couple of days we an intuit quite a bit from the Jan update on the BMN website. As to "Shorting attacks", I'm very sceptical about this usual cry. I think there was one a way back (Aug ?) but usually my own reading of the Tea Leaves doesn't get me to that answer. That said, I do think there was a rather poorly conceived and executed attempt by a few small beer players recently to piggyback on the declining share price when there were a couple of very obvious TA Targets below us to try and profit from. I'd rather not open that festering sore again.

No one can answer any of these questions with any reliability- especially me. I share an opinion only.

Ophidian
Today 10:31

@swanseayellow. First Island are now below the notifiable limit, so I doubt we will see any TR1 or other confirmation once they have finished selling out.

Ophidian
Today 10:08

@BBN - yes again agreement from me. We are really talking about managing expectations. I was actually quite heartened to see 2019 forecasts delayed until Q1 update. For me that I the first green shoots of a more grown up approach. Being confident enough to not feel bounced into releasing yet another target to miss was a real positive in my book.

I know we on this Board scour all the potential sources of information and like manic little Magpies, we collect every tiny scrap of useable information including dates, targets, numbers etc and then try and see a picture from that collage. You perhaps are the most accomplished of any of us at finding the bigger truths in those tiny hints. But every little scrap that comes out in an interview, shared email response, press article etc becomes a potential trip hazard. A more proactive, timely and sustained conversation would grow and reinforce confidence and for me at least be a huge positive. Lets hope the little green shoots visible from that 2019 production advice example continue to grow.

For everyone reading ad worried I'm trying to be critical of BMN or Fortune in particular, I'm not, I'm trying to realistic and balanced - just like they should try and be.

Ophidian
Today 09:55

Looks like they are trying to take the heat out of the rise with a widening spread

Ophidian
Today 09:50

@BBN - if either of us could sing (well you may be able to actually), it would be in harmony and from the same hymn sheet.

Ophidian
Today 09:47

@Expert10201 - been there and done it myself on the multiple million pound scale multiple times. I understand delays and overruns, that's not what I'm getting at. Credibility is built on active timely communications of critical and major timescales. For all the things BMN do well - and lets face it they do a lot of things spectacularly well, managing that investor interface is not one of them.

Ophidian
Today 09:34

@BBN - I heartily agree with you. It is my feeling that there remains a bit of a credibility gap with what Fortune says will happen and exactly WHEN it does happen. Whilst it all gets there eventually it usually missed the timeline. I t is my expectation that we will start to see these things priced in once we actually see some firm evidence of implementation. Breaking ground on the electrolyte plant, signatures on a contract to supply electrolyte or VRFB (or both) etc.

Until then this remains a very preferable price to get into the company at.

Ophidian
Today 08:34

And "gaps" are bad as they always get filled and provide easy Targets for traders to lock into their sights.

Ophidian
Today 08:33

I would rather see steady sustained incremental rise than being spiked up and down by Traders.

Ophidian
Today 07:57

please change the thread title - I keep thinking someone is asking me a question or starting a worthwhile conversation.

Ophidian
Wed 23:27

Can I respectfully suggest that we all draw a line underneath this now and for the sake of a better tomorrow those of us who choose to post our thoughts and research here continue to do so hopefully without the snide commentary of the casual visitors but also absent any antagonism or triumphalism that might illicit responses we would rather do without.

There should be room for all of us on the LSE platform. Let it go now please Bushwackers - we should be in for a good run, hopefully casual visitors can benefit by being investors and we can all benefit from a less caustic environment.

Ophidian
Wed 22:55

@Traojan. Thank you and good luck with your investments.

Ophidian


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