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#AST: Board changes and new strategy for Ascent as Hutchinson looks at new projects
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Member Info for Nickderby

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Member Since: Thu, 16th Jan 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,264
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 142

Last Posted: Fri 11:23

Post Distribution over the last 30 days

Fri 11:23

They drop the offer down to 42p and then don't let you buy any!
Same old.....
12 Jan '19

Greetings from Dubai.

Loudspeaker, thanks for that.
‘Ferro-vanadium US 70-80% V, $/Ib: $41.50-46.00 per Ib’.

That’s an average of $96.25 per kg for US FeV. As it seems that the FeV price has now started to bounce, that’s a great starting point for the bounce!

Roll on $130 per kg....

Cash elephant!

It’s also worth noting that US FeV prices have held up quite nicely in relation to other regions, which is excellent news as more than half of our income comes from the US.

Good times :)
8 Jan '19

BBN - another great post. Thanks.
8 Jan '19

Thanks guys.
I will try and keep my eye on things from afar

Let's hope we get a significant/transformational RNS while i'm away :)
8 Jan '19

Anyway that's enough from me for a week.
I'm going to Dubai for a well deserved holiday.

Hopefully by the time I get back, 50p will have been smashed!
Good luck everyone.
8 Jan '19

Nickderby is in ramping overdrive this morning!
Sorry, I blame RichKen, he got me started :)
8 Jan '19

Just consider the following 8 points...

High vanadium demand.
Insufficient vanadium supply.
World vanadium structural supply deficit.
No significant new vanadium supply coming on line for 3-4 years.
FeV price is already at incredibly profitable levels for Vametco.
The new Chinese rebar rules from November 2018 will generate even greater vanadium demand and push prices up further.
Minimal capex is required to increase production to 5,000 tonnes pa.
Q4 results out soon will show the world our excellent profitability for the quarter.

What more do we need....?

I suppose VRFBS would be a nice additional bonus.
Oh we have those too! :)
8 Jan '19

PennyPusher, sorry but I think that was fairly obvious as we are only on the 8th of January!
But thanks anyway :)
8 Jan '19

A reminder for any new shareholders...

This is from Fortune Mojapelo’s Indaba presentation earlier this year :-

At current FeV prices, current costs and 2018 production levels, Vametco
"is a mine that is capable of generating US$150 million in Ebitda."

This was stated when the FeV price was $60/$65 per kg. Even after the recent falls we are still well in excess of this.

2019 is going to be a cracker! :)
8 Jan '19

BMN is like a juggernaut, nothing can stop its inexorable rise. Obviously there will be dips along the way, as we have just experienced, but anyone who is willing to be patient and stay the distance will be rewarded handsomely.

Vanadium production from 3,750 tonnes, to 5,000 tonnes, to 10,000 tonnes pa and beyond.

Vametco, Brits, Mokopane vanadium. Further brownfield production facilities to come.

FeV prices will start increasing again, firstly back up to $125 per kg and then beyond.

At least another 3-4 years with very limited supply and increasing demand.

Maybe even $150 per kg is in sight?
Who knows how far vanadium can go, we are in new territory and a huge structural deficit.

VRFBs - initially through Eskom in South Africa , then securing large scale energy storage projects throughout Africa and the rest of the world. This is a huge opportunity and BMN is in the best place to take advantage of it.

As we are ‘most significant, lowest cost, vertically integrated vanadium company in the world’, we can subsidise our VRFBs without compromising the profitability of the group as a whole. This was confirmed by Fortune in one of his recent interviews.
This gives us a massive advantage over our competitors.

Electrolyte production - sale/leasing.

Lemur powering Madagascar.

Dividends being discussed in Q1 and then increasing sharply every year due to the incredible growth expected over the next few years.

Very exciting times ahead.

DYOR of course :)
8 Jan '19

Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’.

Experienced mining entrepreneurs are now on board.
No outstanding warrants now.
Dividend policy to be announced in the next few weeks.
74% of Vametco is now owned.
Vametco 2018 profits are looking huge even at the current FeV prices and production levels.
Our share of Vametco profits after tax are around £2m per week at current max production and FeV prices of $100/kg.
There is a world vanadium supply deficit and this will remain for at least the next 3-4 years.
The new Chinese rebar standards, which started in November, will increase their vanadium demand by a further 30%.
The Chinese are banning the import of vanadium s l a g.
The environmental crackdown in China is fueling the vanadium price rally further.
Vanadium prices are looking excellent for 2019 and will no doubt pass the multi year highs already reached.
China, one of the largest vanadium producers in the world, is expected to become a net importer of ferro-vanadium in the near future.
Vametco annual production capacity has increased to 3,750 tonnes and we are now targeting production levels of 5,000 tonnes pa by the end of 2019.
All production increases will be paid for through operating cash flows.
Guidance for 2018 is 2,600-2,650 tonnes of production.
We are on the lookout for more brownfield vanadium production facilities to increase our capacity to 10,000 tonnes and beyond.
Our Mokopane mining licence is due any time.
Mokopane early revenue generation is coming.
The current V2O5 price is making our Mokopane vanadium project hugely profitable.
Brits vanadium - very high grades expected, thereby reducing Vametco production costs even further.
Further drilling is taking place at Vametco.
Bushveld Energy is in the very exciting VRFB sector.
BE has agreements with UET and IDC.
Commissioning of the demonstration VRFB with Eskom, the SA national power utility, is taking place. Potentially a huge contract is coming our way!
Electrolyte production is moving forward for production in 2019.
Electrolyte leasing partner news to come.
Imaloto coal has a MOU with Sinohydro.
Imaloto coal BFS will be published shortly.
Lemur has signed a binding 30 year power purchasing agreement with the Madagascar state-owned utility JIRAMA.
Potential Imaloto coal sale or spin off.
Investment in Afritin Mining - first production commencing soon.
Other resources, iron ore, titanium, phosphate.
JSE listing coming up.
South Africa politics have improved significantly.
Ramaphosa’s South Africa is becoming investor friendly and encouraging foreign investment.
All very positive for business and mining in South Africa.

Exciting times ahead!

DYOR of course :)
8 Jan '19

Let’s have a reminder of what we can look forward to over the next few weeks/months....

Q4 Vametco results, due late January/early Feb, will be incredibly good due to the increasing production and record high vanadium prices.

Q4 updates for Bushveld Energy and Lemur showing further progress made in the quarter.

2018 Annual Report, due June 2019 showing fantastic progress being made throughout the business and showing excellent profitability for the year.

Other news in no particular order...

Vanadium price starting to increase again due to the large structural supply deficit.
Phase 3 increase in production capacity to over 5,000 tonnes pa carried out earlier than planned to make the most of the ‘perfect storm’ in the vanadium market!
Mokopane mining licence.
Mokopane news of early revenue generation.
Brits vanadium drilling news, very high grades expected, thereby reducing Vametco production costs even further.
Brits vanadium JORC.
Vametco drilling results.
Details of the PV project BE are currently working on.
Bushveld Energy contracts.
Eskom VRFB news.
Eskom contract?
Electrolyte production progress.
UET final partnership details.
Leasing partner news.
Brownfield acquisition (Vanchem?) to increase our production capacity further.
Imaloto coal BFS.
Imaloto coal platform sale/spin off news.
Afritin first production commencing.
Dividend policy information - Q1.
Johannesburg listing.

Possible suitors looking to take over/partner with ‘the most significant, lowest cost, vertically integrated vanadium company in the world’??

All looking good!

DYOR of course :)
8 Jan '19

RichKen, news list?
Or fundamentals list?
8 Jan '19

Max buy is 30,000 shares at 42p.
I think we're in for a good day! :)
7 Jan '19


All I will say is 'structural deficit'.
Don't worry about short term FeV prices, the only way is up over the next few months...
7 Jan '19

That thread disappeared quickly!
If anyone knows the vanadium market, it is Roskill.

‘The market has moved into structural deficit’

Mine shutdowns, China’s environmental inspections and China banning the import of vanadium s l a g has caused insufficient supply.

Demand is increasing due to new Chinese rebar rules, VRFBS etc.

He says that several new supplies will come online over the next 3 to 5 years.

This is the perfect storm for vanadium prices and for BMN to make hay.

Bushveld will take full advantage of this structural deficit over the next 3-5 years :)
7 Jan '19

BBN - Agreed.

I’ve noticed over the last few weeks, especially over on a d v f n, people are trying to spread fear about a potential fund raising. FM has always been very careful with fund raising/dilution to date.

Any potential fund raising certainly isn’t a ‘keep the lights on’ type of funding, it would be used for expansion and would definitely be earnings accretive!

It would be excellent news and definitely nothing to be concerned about. Certainly no concerns from me anyway.

I’m happy to let Fortune manage the business, his record to date is exemplary - just look at the share price performance over the last 2 years! :)
7 Jan '19

Max buy at 41.5p is 5,000 shares.
I think we are moving up! :)
7 Jan '19

Mikhail comments are worth repeating.

"The third quarter of this year and events following immediately afterwards, have proven beyond doubt that the market for battery storage in both South Africa and Africa overall is SIGNIFICANT and IMMEDIATE.

The knowledge gained by our team in deploying a system with Eskom and designing and building an electrolyte facility will continue to give Bushveld Energy a COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE in supplying into this growing market.

Our business plan, anchored in a low cost scalable primary production platform, will allow us to MAXIMISE value for Bushveld and its shareholders along the VRFB value chain, and therefore realise the Company's vision of a deeply vertically integrated vanadium platform."

Its fair to say BE is going to be huge!

Then there is our production growth through Vametco, Brits and Mokopane.
Plus brownfield acquisition, Lemur, Afritin etc.

Also the huge structural vanadium supply deficit for the next 3-4 years is going to give vanadium prices and therefore our profits a huge boost.

It may seem a big step but........FTSE100 watch out, here we come! :) :) :)
7 Jan '19

Gambit, the last time I read a report on the JSE, it stated that its long term average PE ratio was 17.68.
The last time we checked the AIM100, it averaged around 25.

Taking into account BMN's growth prospects, there's no reason why we shouldn't expect a PE ratio somewhere between those figures.

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