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Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Member Info for Nickderby


Send a private message to Nickderby

Member Since: Thu, 16th Jan 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,524
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 28

Last Posted: Today 09:13


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Today 09:13

Abby, you are looking at the AfriTin tab :)
Today 08:51

Abby, maybe a silly question but are you looking at the wrong tab?
Mon 12:23

Well I've been tempted to buy another 300,000 shares this morning (in 4 batches).
Buy the dips if you can.

The finalisation of the Vanchem acquisition is coming soon.

Also coming soon.....

Largest primary vanadium producer in the world.
Largest electrolyte producer in the world.
Largest electricity storage provider in Africa by 2020.

Then there is the vanadium structural deficit, we have increasing vanadium production, production costs reducing, VRFBS are the future and will create even greater vanadium demand, huge cash generation, dividends coming etc.
I think I need to lie down.

Life changing! :)
Fri 10:47

Vauch, I know its been said many times before, but we need to remain patient.

Just look at that ARC target with FeV at $85 per kg and a 5% discount rate - £1.77 per share!
That includes nothing for Vanchem or Bushveld Energy.

Good times are coming.... :)
Fri 10:20

Still bargain prices here!

Updated broker notes....

SP Angel - target 90p.
This is based on FeV prices of $60 per kg for 2019,2020 and a long term price of just $45 per kg.

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Vanchem_Acquisition.pdf

ARC - target 45p.
This is based on FeV prices of:
$60 per kg in 2019,
$52.50 per kg in 2020,
$45 per kg in 2021 and beyond.

However, their target share price increases to £1.08 at an FeV price of $85 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14.

Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $85 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £1.77.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Solid-2018-results-Vametco-reserves-double.pdf

BMO Capital have initiated an outperform rating and a target price of 55p.

They use long term FeV prices of $40 per kg.

They also say...
‘Increased intensity of use in China and beyond could see significant support to the vanadium price going forward. Even a 10% increase in price over our existing forecast, whilst using existing multiples would increase our target price to £0.70/share.’

https://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/D1A05CFA-6101-4F16-8646-A9AB04A239F3.PDF

Finally, Peel Hunt recently initiated a buy rating and gave a short term target of 45p, with ‘solid near term growth plans’ as well as ‘further upside’ expected.

Considering most of the above targets include barely anything for Bushveld Energy, we have such a long way to go!

Cash elephant! :)

DYOR.
7 Jun '19

Hi Raz, its not easy!
Just keeping my eyes open on the various sites we all know about. Sometimes I miss a week but then the following week gives you the movement, so I have to work the prices back etc.

As I say they don't make it easy!
7 Jun '19

Ophidian, is the difference in the time lag?
I have used the 1 month time lag in my figures, so that Q2 finished on 31st May.
7 Jun '19

Ophidian, I have just recorded the weekly figures disclosed for US FeV prices and averaged them over the 13 week periods.
7 Jun '19

BBN, the US figures for Q1 and Q2 are much more impressive than Europe. My calculations are showing Q1 at $97 and Q2 at $58.

These are excellent figures because as we all know, in excess of 60% of our sales go to the US :)
5 Jun '19

I see that the short has slightly increased today and is now at 0.6%.

Vanadium prices seem to be turning the corner, plenty of other positives are due, hopefully they’re going to have a real problem buying these shares back! :)

https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/public-equity-partners-management-lp/
5 Jun '19

YTSS, each time you post, you quote a different price to my max buy post.

I posted that the max buy at 27p was 30,000, you posted that you can buy at 27.3p.
The offer has risen since my post.

You posted the same yesterday after the offer had risen.

Hope that makes sense :)
5 Jun '19

Someone has just sold 250,000 shares and yet the max buy on II at 27p is still just 30,000 shares.
The MMs need your shares..... Hold tight! :)
4 Jun '19

As usual, its now NT to buy at 27p.
31 May '19

Max buy with II is just 15,000 shares at 30.5p.
A blue finish coming? :)
29 May '19

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/the-first-price-rise-in-the-european-ferrovanadium-market-in-15-weeks/

'The main reason for the price rise is the increasing interest in buying in the spot market. In addition to that, market participants mentioned trader inventories had finally run thin. “They have been trying to cover back in,” a European supplier source said. Therefore, market participants are optimistic about the recent improved situation and have more confidence in their offering prices.'

Stocks are running thin, we've finally seen the bottom...
Hopefully! :)
28 May '19

Don't forget the tantalite....

'Tantalite, which makes up 10% of the concentrate, sells at $180,000/tonne'.
That will work wonders for the economics of the project.

http://m.miningweekly.com/article/first-tin-concentrate-to-market-q4-afritin-2018-07-30/rep_id:3861
26 May '19

Yes Pdub, the FeV price is certainly ready for a bounce!
Exciting times ahead for us all.

Hope you’re doing ok. I remember the chemotherapy after effects getting progressively worse during the treatments.
Try and stay positive, it’s certainly worth it in the end!

Good luck :)
26 May '19

:)
26 May '19

HaleSpur - what!
Come on you Rams! :)
26 May '19

Sorry that should be....

Let’s enjoy the prospect of ‘rapid upward price movement in the ferro-vanadium market at the end of the week’

Bring it on!! :)


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