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Exclusive: Hayden Locke, CEO Emmerson plc, a low cost high margin potash investment
Richard Slape, Oil consultant - Avoiding Losers and Picking Winners, his personal strategy


Member Info for Nickderby


Send a private message to Nickderby

Member Since: Thu, 16th Jan 2014

Number of Share Chat Posts (all time): 1,373
Number of Share Chat Posts (last 30 days): 8

Last Posted: Fri 15:31


Post Distribution over the last 30 days




Fri 15:31

Max buy at 38p (with II) is just 60,000 shares.
The MMs are struggling for shares.

Any buying will push this much higher into the close... :)
Fri 15:20

Jeffry, please do some research.
Vametco generated $107.5m Ebitda in the year ended 31st December.

Revenues $192m.
Fri 14:55

It looks like I've just got back in time for some excitement.
Next week could bring some excellent news.....

Dividend policy.
Brits drilling results.
BE news, Eskom testing etc.

Plus anything else from a long list of expected news! :)
Fri 14:38

Haha Knuttie.
You wouldn't want it, its been red hot out there ;)
Fri 14:35

Thanks RK.

Maximum buy with II is just 30,000 shares at 37.5p.
Another tick up coming... :)
Fri 14:31

Excellent post RichKen.
I'm feeling an exciting second half of March coming along!

I'm now back from sunny Florida to the windy UK.

I think someone recently suggested that I might be selling my shareholding, that couldn't be further from the truth.
I actually added 500,000 over 3 trading days between 31.5p and 37p while on holiday :)

Exciting times ahead! :)
26 Feb '19

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/global-vanadium-wrap-chinese-exporters-continue-to-raise-their-fev-offer-prices/

'Chinese ferro-vanadium exporters continued to raise their offer levels last week after prices were bolstered by strength in the country’s domestic market, while the European ferro-vanadium market tumbled amid sluggish spot activity.

Chinese exporters increase offers following domestic market strength
European FeV market softens on weak spot demand
European V2O5 flat amid limited trading activity
US FeV prices hold, market absent of activity
Fastmarkets assessed the export price for ferro-vanadium, min 78%, fob China, at $74-76 per kg on February 21, up by 3.1% from $70.50-75 per kg a week earlier.

Many Chinese ferro-vanadium exporters raised their offer prices last week despite sparse inquiries from abroad after realizing that equivalent prices in the domestic spot market were close to or in some instances had even surpassed their export levels, Fastmarkets understands.'
26 Feb '19

BEIJING (Asian Metal) 26 Feb 19 – Currently, mainstream prices for Chinese ferrovanadium 50%min are RMB255,000-258,000/t (USD76.28-77.17/kg V) EXW D/A 180 days, up by RMB3,000/t (USD0.90/kg V) from late last week. Considering prices of raw material keep increasing, insiders believe prices of this material would be firm in the coming week.

A producer in Northeast China quotes ferrovanadium 50%min at RMB260,000/t (USD77.77/kg V) at present, up by RMB5,000/t (USD1.50/kg V) from last week. “We bought 32 tons of raw material vanadium pentoxide flake 98%min at RMB245,000/t (USD16.96/lb V) early last week and it’s hard to buy more for tight supply at the moment. Considering prices of raw material would hardly drop, I believe prices of ferrovanadium 50%min would be firm in the coming week,” said the source. Their last deal was made late last week, when they sold 10t at RMB258,000/t (USD77.17/kg V).

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/chinese-ferrovanadium-prices-increase-2/

FeV prices are bouncing back nicely :)
18 Feb '19

Morning folks. Just to let you know I’m away in Florida for the next month, so will probably have a holiday from the BB too.

Good luck to everyone, especially those fighting the big C.
Hopefully the ‘coiled spring’ will shoot us well beyond 50p by my return.

See you in Springtime! :)
14 Feb '19

The MMs have dropped the official quoted bid from 34p to 33.5p, but the actual bid remains at 34.25p.
More MM tricks, trying to scare the weak?

It won't work here, the fundamentals are too good.

Cash elephant :)
14 Feb '19

Tyfoon, agreed.
The 50k trades x 6 are all buys this morning.
14 Feb '19

Pdub, agreed.
It would be huge!
14 Feb '19

According to my calcs, we have had around 200k more buys than sells.
Have we finally turned?

As Ophidian says, 33.8p has been very solid.
Bring on 80p! :)
14 Feb '19

34.75p to buy.
Bargain!
14 Feb '19

A brownfield acquisition would put a rocket up the share price!
We've been hearing about it for months, it must be close.... :)
14 Feb '19

Make that 5 x 50,000 buys!
Come on...... PUSH :)
14 Feb '19

A nice turnaround this morning.
4 nice 50,000 buys showing up.

Blue next.... :)
14 Feb '19

If we take SP Angel’s 2019 post tax profits forecast of $109.2m, that would give BMN post tax profits of £62.16m for 2019. EPS - 5.55p.

At the current price of 34p, that gives a forward PE ratio of 6.1.

Plenty of upside to that PE level and profitability when you consider what’s happening in the vanadium market and the news we have to come over the next few weeks/months.

Bring it on.....
14 Feb '19

A summary of the latest broker targets.

SP Angel - target 87p.
This is based on FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019,2020 and a long term price of just $45 per kg.

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q4_Sales_EBITDA.pdf

ARC - target 50p.
This is based on FeV prices of:
$80 per kg in 2019,
$70 per kg in 2020,
$60 per kg in 2021
and long term prices of $45 per kg.

However, their target share price increases to £1.36 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14.

Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.23.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf

Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’.

2019 looks like it’s going to be another exciting year! :)

DYOR.
14 Feb '19

During these retraces you just have to remember the great fundamentals and also why you invested in the first place. Nothing has changed, in fact its most probably got better and better!

BMN has positioned itself into an incredibly strong position and the company’s fundamentals will always win in the end.

Just to keep things simple....

Vanadium demand significantly exceeds vanadium supply and this will continue for a minimum of 2/3 years. Roskill recently said it will be 3 to 5 years before any significant new vanadium supply will come into production.

This shortage, together with other current events. (Chinese rebar etc), will generate a vanadium supply deficit of at least 20% per annum.
If VRFB demand takes off as expected, the vanadium deficit will be much greater than this.

Therefore, although vanadium prices have recently fallen back from multi year highs, they are likely to keep rising over the coming months and years.
Excellent news for Vametco profitability!

Vametco production costs are very low.
Vametco is debt free and even made a profit during the low point in the vanadium cycle.

Vametco production is growing - maximum production capacity is now up to 3,750 tonnes pa and our next target is 5,000 tonnes pa.

A brownfield acquisition, possibly Vanchem, will increase this production significantly. Medium term target is 10,000 tonnes pa.

We have one of the largest, high grade, low cost vanadium resources in the world.

Everything else is an additional bonus - Mokopane vanadium, Brits vanadium, electrolyte production, Imaloto coal, iron ore, titanium, phosphate, Afritin Ltd and of course Bushveld Energy and VRFBs!

We have the demonstration VRFB with Eskom, which as we all know has incredible potential. Our connections with the IDC should give us an excellent chance of being part of Eskom’s renewable energy plans going forward.

Don’t forget that the Mokopane mining licence is imminent! Offtakes and development news must be very close when you look at the potential Mokopane profitability.

Not forgetting the dividend policy any the JSE listing!

Even the SA political situation has improved significantly under Ramaphosa.

It is definitely a time when we should be feeling relaxed.
This is just the beginning of the Bushy story! :)

DYOR


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